If the Texans were getting a full TD, playing the home underdog would have been the move, but they're getting the benefits of the doubt they may not deserve with the spread dropping. Houston's been in rock fights with Tennessee and Denver, a surprise comeback over a poor Jacksonville team coming in between. Buffalo gets dinged for losing to Miami, but it only struggles against teams that can run. The Texans cannot, and their strong rush defense hasn’t been tested like it will be Thursday. Josh Allen is 8-0 on Thursdays. Houston is 0-4 wth less than five days off since 2021. Allen should supplement James Cook with key QB runs in a game the Bills badly need to stay in the AFC East race.

Josh Allen is likely to be under pressure Thursday night, due to the Texans' strong pass rush and ability to blanket wideouts. Last season in Houston, Allen was pressured on nearly half his dropbacks and ended up gaining 54 yards on the ground. We've seen several quarterbacks with less rushing ability than Allen scramble for substantial yards against Houston this season. Look for Allen, in a key AFC game, to rush for at least 35 yards.

Marks has emerged as Houston’s RB1, and I like him to see some targets tonight. He’s had his best games this season when he’s been used as a receiver as well. Last week against the Titans, Marks had 18 carries for just 44 yards for an inefficient 2.4 yards per carry. If Buffalo’s pass rush has Texans backup QB Davis Mills under pressure, expect check downs. Marks has 3+ targets in 5 of his last 7 games, and 2+ receptions in 3 of his last 5. I like our chances to cash this, especially if the Texans are in a trailing game script.

Jayden Higgins has 7 or more targets in 3 of his last 4 games and appears to be the WR2 on Houston. I think this game will be closer than people think, but Mills will be required to throw at times and Higgins is likely to be the primary target after Nico Collins (Bills are great defending the TE position which should limit Schultz but they are weak against outside WRs). The Bills pass rush has also been questionable as of late and that should lead to Mills having some time to connect with his rookie wideout. A pretty low number here and Higgins won't need to do much to topple it.

Tyrell Shavers was a huge beneficiary of Keon Coleman's absence on Sunday and now we are hearing scuttlebutt that Coleman might be scratched again. That would be interesting considering Buffalo already is super short-handed in pass-catchers with the like of Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel and Mecole Hardman all out. In games where he has at least one catch this year, Shavers has topped this in four of the five. Houston will focus mostly on stopping Khalil Shakir. Our model has Shavers at 30 yards.

Marks has become the primary back for this Texans offense and has 32 carries the last two weeks, with nearly half of those coming in a serious negative gamescript. The Houston defense should keep them in this game early on, which means lots of Marks. And when the Texans get down to the goal line, I'd expect Marks to get fed as well. The Bills rush defense isn't great: they've given up 12 (!) rushing touchdowns over their last six games, including three to Sean Tucker and Baker Mayfield last week. The Bills also rank 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.1 ypc) and have been even worse (5.4 ypc) the last three weeks.

Davis Mills is an obvious downgrade from C.J. Stroud, but we can still roll with Collins here and feel pretty comfortable about it. Despite the Texans trotting out a backup quarterback the last two weeks, Collins is still getting fed. Over Houston's last two games, Collins has 25 targets and has totaled 16 catches and 128 yards with one touchdown on those looks. His ATD number is plus money and I certainly considered that, but it feels like this is a safer bet, largely because the Bills should be able to do *something* on offense, forcing the Texans to throw more than DeMeco Ryans might like. We're also getting a pretty steep discount from the rest of the market on this price at FanDuel.

Three of the best SL NFL experts are on either Houston + or Under. And if they are right, and I think they might be, then the Bills almost surely are not scoring at least 26 points on a short road week. Josh Allen has been not good in two career starts in Houston, including last year when he went 9-for-30 passing in a walk-off loss. Our model has Buffalo at 24 points, and I hope that's the ceiling barring some special teams/defensive nonsense. The Texans have allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in seven straight and fewer than 20 points in seven of 10 games overall. They have the NFL's best defense. And facing a terrible run defense (i.e. chew clock).

Nick Chubb got three carries in Week 11, gaining 17 yards and forcing two missed tackles. Woody Marks drew 18 carries without forcing a missed tackle. He averaged 2.4 yards per carry. For the season, Marks ranks dead last in the NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt. The Bills are weak against the run, allowing 5.4 yards per carry to a group of running backs who have averaged 4.3 yards per carry vs. everyone else. They just gave up 200-plus rushing yards to Tampa Bay. They are most vulnerable up the middle. Marks is not built for another 18 carries on a short week, and no other Texans' back is getting carries. Look for Texans' coaches to realize they need better backfield balance.

B365. Jayden Higgins was selected early in the second round with the idea that he could play on the outside opposite Nicole Collins. After being buried on the depth chart early on, Higgins has seen his route participation increase the Texans Week 6 bye. Overall, he’s cleared this line in five of ten games, including consecutive contests with seven targets and 42+ receiving yards (both with Davis Mills at quarterback). I do believe that the Texans will need to air it out, as their ground game has been abysmal all season (28th in DVOA, per FTN). The Bills are also a bottom 10 team in defending horizontal breaking routes - a staple of the Texans offense. I’d bet this to over 32.5 yards.

The Bills' defense is allowing 5.4 yards per carry to running backs, which is 2nd worst in the NFL. Last week, the Bills gave up 202 all-purpose yards to the Bucs running backs. Woody Marks has gotten 10-18 carries the last five weeks and has taken over as the lead back for the Texans. Last week Marks handled 82% of the backfield touches. Marks was known for his receiving ability in college, and it's surprising the Texans don't use him more in the passing game. The reason I'm targeting Marks' rush + receiving line is to be protected no matter the game script. Marks has had four games of 20 or more receiving yards, so this line gives us multiple outs.

Ths one's simple. Whether the category is yards or points allowed, Houston's defense reigns supreme in the league. It would be nice to secure a full touchdown on the line, but this wll have to do. QB Davis Mills is 2-0 SU as a fill-in for injured C.J. Stroud, playing well in both wins. The Bills have dropped two of the last three away games outright, each by double-digits. Buffalo has been bitten by a rash of injuries on both units, especially to pass-catchers, which might mean more carries for James Cook and a modest points total that favors the underdog.

The Bills will be missing Dalton Kincaid and two receivers for this matchup, which comes against the NFL's best pass defense. Allen has thrown interceptions in five of his last seven games, none of which have been against a defense this good, while the Texans have recorded 10 interceptions in 10 games this season. The easiest way this loses is if the Bills defense can shut down Houston's offense and limit Allen's passing volume, but the beat-up unit can't be expected to come through at that level and turn this game into a rout. I'd play an Allen interception up to -130.

I had the Woody Marks rushing over last week and it didn't pan out, but as expected, the volume was there. There has been a changing of the guard at the RB position in Houston and that has led to 32 carries over the last two games for Marks. Now he's up against one of the worst rush defenses in the league (Bills allowing 5.4 YPC) at home and he's projected for approximately 16 carries. I expect the Texans defense to keep things relatively close which should result in getting Woody Marks the volume he needs to get to this number. I'd play it up to 63.5. This number is at BetMGM.

Around this time last year, Josh Allen went on an absolute touchdown scoring binge. From Week 10 through Week 16, the eventual MVP scored NINE rushing touchdowns. Cue the Ferris Bueller GIFS. He scored three on Sunday against the Bucs in a huge spot for the Bills, who still have hope to win the division but can't give up any more ground to the Patriots. Houston is a really tough defense so we're getting a great price here. Allen's going to lay it all on the line the rest of the way and I expect him to find the end zone at least once on Thursday.

It's unclear at this point whether C.J. Stroud will be able to play here, but I'm going to take them now while a +4.5 is available at FanDuel. Davis Mills has been effective filling in for Stroud the last two games (both wins), and he could have success at home against a Bills defense that has allowed 399 rush yards the past two games, taking the pressure off the opposing QB. The Bills' passing attack came alive last week but now they face the best pass defense in the league, and I expect Buffalo won't be able to run up the score in this matchup. The lookahead line was Bills -2.5 with the expectation Stroud would play, but it should be 3 with Mills.

We know CJ Stroud is out against the Titans; we don't know if CJ Stroud will be back on a short week against Buffalo. The Bills are about to play in a weather game against the Bucs that will impact offensive perception on a short week. If Stroud does clear protocol and play vs the Bills we have a good bet...if he isn't able to go and misses his third straight game we have a great bet. Jump on this lookahead early as I expect the total re-opens in the 42 range