DraftKings. Quay Walker has cleared this combined tackles line in four of his six games played, with at least 8 in each game. The Steelers have allowed the sixth most tackles to opposing linebackers coming into Week 8. The Packers defensive philosophy is to keep everything in the passing game short, which Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has no issue doing - his aDOT of 6.6 yards was third lowest amongst QBs coming into the week. The Steelers have allowed an off-ball linebacker to clear this line in each week since their first game.

Matthew Golden is expected to play, and Christian Watson will make his season debut for the Packers at Pittsburgh. When this line was above a field goal, I leaned to the Steelers and Mike Tomlin's terrific record as a home dog. But with the market taking this under a field goal, I have to back a Packers team that has shown flashes of being elite. Pittsburgh ranks 21st in pass efficiency defense and 22nd in rushing efficiency defense.

The Packers go to Pittsburgh to face former teammate Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, and the Bengals have a lot to do with what each team has done lately. Pittsburgh lost at Cincinnati, 33-31, last week, while the Packers beat the Bengals, 27-18, two weeks ago. The Packers haven't covered their last four games. The game that stands out to me is a Seahawks 31-17 win at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Green Bay's running game will be the key to the game, and they have the better running back in Josh Jacobs. The Packers defense is also number one in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.7, and also number two against the run, allowing 76 yards per game. Packers to win.

The setup is obvious with Aaron Rodgers squaring off against his original team, but that alone is not enough reason to side with the Steelers. Better reasons? Mike Tomlin is 21-7-3 ATS as a home underdog, 19-12 outright. The Packers are on the road for a second straight week. They are 0-3 ATS away from home and 0-4 ATS since Sept. 21. The return of Christian Watson does concern as he could open up the middle of the field, but Green Bay needs to prove it can play consistent offense before getting points in a spot like this. The line is trending toward 2.5, so jump on this now and ensure you get the full FG.

Packers safety Xavier McKinney has recorded six or more combined tackles in four straight and five of the first six games this season. The Steelers have not been a good matchup for safeties, but McKinney is an All-Pro who will find a way to get involved. I would play this up to -160.

My last pick of the Sunday slate will of course be on a tight end. Kraft has found the end zone in consecutive games, and in 4/6 this season. Kraft’s 4 TD’s leads the Packers, so I like his odds to score a 5th tonight at +140.

This one is simple. Rodgers revenge game. First time playing the Packers since he left Green Bay. Rodgers is over this passing yards line in consecutive games. The Packers allowed 219 passing yards to Joe Flacco in his first game with the Bengals, and 279 to Cardinals backup QB Jacoby Brissett last week. I expect Rodgers to be looking for deep shots to DK Metcalf & Calvin Austin III. This should be a competitive game in Primetime, and I expect Rodgers to soar over this total.

Doubs scored 3 TD’s against the Cowboys in a 40-40 thriller a few weeks ago, but hasn’t found the end zone since. I think he has a good shot tonight against a Steelers defense that has consistently given up explosive plays. Doubs leads the Packers with 7 red zone targets, 5 of which were end zone targets. Green Bay is banged up at WR, so Doubs should be involved heavily and have his chances to score.

Doubs is over this receiving yards total in 3 straight games, and in 4/6 this season. Green Bay will be without WR Dontayvion Wicks, and WR Christian Watson will likely be on a snap count as he makes his return from a torn ACL last season. Doubs has a 15+ yard catch logged in every game this season, and has seen 8+ targets in each of his last 3 games. Jordan Love should look to target Doubs against a man coverage-heavy Steelers defense. I like him to score at +215 as well.

Yes those are Steelers throwbacks they're wearing tonight, though we would rather they go for an early-to-mid 60s look (and the 1966-67 "Batman" unis). Whatever, it's also the "Aaron Rodgers Bowl" at Acrisure when he faces his old employer the Packers as the Steelers set a comfortable pace in the AFC North. "Handicap-able" elements tonight include Pittsburgh's penchant for playing 'em close and Green Bay's penchant for having trouble on the road, where it is 0-3 vs. the spread this season with only one outright win...and that in desperate fashion last Sunday at Arizona. Play Steelers

45.5 feels like a soft total for this Sunday night game. The Steelers are 4-2 to the Over this season, while Green Bay is 2-1 to the Over on the road. Despite all the talented names on their defense, Pittsburgh has surrendered 30+ points to the Jets, Seahawks, and Bengals this year. This Packers defense has also had lapses recently, playing in a 40-40 tie against Dallas, and falling behind early to Jacoby Brissett & the Cardinals last week. And how could we ignore… Aaron Rodgers revenge game. I see points in this one, with a final score of something like 27-23 that gets us over the total.

Prime time has been very tricky this season, but I look for the Packers to get the road win against Pittsburgh. With Mike Tomlin’s Steelers we’ve seen the hot starts but also the wall that causes an extreme reverse in losses. Green Bay has had a heavy road schedule as this will be their fourth road game over their last five, but what they have been able to do is win. Low enough spread here that I’ll buy on the Packers side.

DraftKings. Buying low on Josh Jacobs, who only had 13 carries last week. He was questionable for the Week 7 tilt with a calf injury and illness - the latter I think played more into the scaled back workload and snap-share. No injury designation this week, so this should be a very achievable line for Jacobs, who has cleared this total in 4 of 6 games this season, and 14 of 22 full games as a Packer. The Steelers allow the most offensive plays per game to their opponents this season (69.3). Packers run at the 11th highest rate in neutral situations (per RotoViz) - and I like them to keep it close. I’d bet this up to -120.

Warren is coming off a breakout performance against the Bengals, where he had 127 yards on 16 carries. The Packers defense, even for its struggles of late, is not anywhere near as bad as Cincy, and it seems like star defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt is tracking to a return for the fourth-best yards per carry defense in the league. Before last week, Warren hadn't topped 52 rushing yards in a game, and it would take Kenneth Gainwell being injured for me to reasonably expect Warren to reach this number in a tough matchup.

Trying to think about how I can put this without using multiple curse words: Ummm, I do not like Aaron Rodgers. In the Brussels Sprouts category. At all. I frankly think he's one of the most overrated players in NFL history. Regular-season superstar. Colin Kaepernick has been in the Super Bowl more recently. Rodgers is one of the more arrogant guys around -- hey, I might be too having earned 400 mil and dating stars -- so yeah I do think he will be duly motivated Sunday vs. the Packers regardless of what he's saying publicly. BTW, Brett Favre (him I respected) in first game vs. Green Bay (apples and oranges, but I put in the homework): 271 yards and three TDs.

Tucker Kraft is the Packers leading receiver, with the 6th highest target share of any TE. Head coach Matt LaFleur talked in the offseason about giving Kraft more opportunities in the intermediate and deep parts of the field and we're seeing that early. Last season he had 10 total targets of 10+ yards and this season he already has 7 through 6 games. He's averaging over 14 yards a catch, coming off a 10 target game, and we've already seen what the ceiling can look like with a 124 yard game vs. the Commanders in Week 2. The Steelers are allowing over 8 targets and 6 catches a game to tight ends, resulting in the 5th most yards (67.17).

Mike Tomlin as a home dog in Prime Time. That's about all we need here. Seriously though, this Packers team has been a bit disappointing. They should have lost last week to the Cardinals. Pittsburgh got a wake up call last week and the defense was put on alert with Cincinnati tearing them up. They are now on extra rest and Rodgers will want to carve up his old team. Tomlin will have his guys ready to go and he's been incredibly successful in this situation throughout his coaching tenure. I think the Steelers win the game outright.

Pretty simple, really. Aaron Rodgers getting three points against his old team at home in prime time paired with Mike Tomlin coming off a classic Mike Tomlin midseason loss to the Bengals as a home dog the following week. Tomlin has covered 75 percent of the time as a home underdog in his career with the Steelers.

Generally not an early jumper on NFL, but I was definitely looking at this pro-Steelers right off the bat because Aaron Rodgers will be so fired up to light up the Packers like he's on an all-time ayahuasca trip. Bit surprised we got the hook this early in the week if not surprised overall that Pittsburgh is even getting a field goal at home unless I'm missing a TJ Watt injury or something (nope). Green Bay is 0-3 ATS away, one of three such winless clubs.

It's the Aaron Rodgers revenge game as he faces the Packers for the first time, and he'll be up against a supposed Super Bowl contender that has underachieved over the last month. Since losing to the Browns, the only solid game by the Packers defense has been against a QB who had been on his team for days. The Packers offense may also continue to be inconsistent against a Steelers defense that's getting healthier and doesn't have to worry about facing Ja'Marr Chase this week. I think this line should probably be south of 3 and I couldn't justify it being higher with the Packers' recent play, so this is the time to jump on the Steelers.