When the Chargers walked out in their urine-colored uniforms last week, I immediately regretted picking them over the Colts. Not that jersey matters, obviously, but it was not the best look. Los Angeles is back in navy at home playing its second straight home game on a short week. It is well positioned to capitalize on Carson Wentz’s errant throws, and while Aaron Jones being back will undoubtedly help the Vikings, the return of Joe Alt and availability of Trey Pipkins will seriously help the hosts protect Justin Herbert and opening up the running game, while increased work for Khalil Mack will help defensively. Jim Harbaugh has won and covered three straight at home on short rest.

Herbert has let his athleticism show more in 2025 than in years past, with the former Oregon standout on pace to set a career high in rushing yards. He has gone over this number in five of seven games this season, and I expect that trend to continue on Thursday night.

Aaron Jones is set to return for Minnesota, but I still fully expect Mason to be the lead back in Kevin O'Connell's offensive attack. The Chargers are allowing 123.6 rushing yards per game this season, and I have mason projected to finish with 13-15 carries on Thursday night. If that is accurate, he should go comfortably over this number.

The Chargers running back room is depleted, and it's safe to assume Vidal is going to get the bulk of the snaps on TNF. The former 6th round pick is an excellent receiver and has gone over this number in back-to-back games.

Carson Wentz has topped this in three of four games and has only started two of those. He rushed for a season-high 28 yards last week. This is third-most popular TNF player prop bet at BetMGM and our model has Wentz at around 20 yards rushing.

The Chargers have uncharacteristically struggled (for a Jim Harbaugh-coached team) on defense over the last month, and the Vikings haven't been much better. Both sides have plenty of offensive firepower, and this is a spot where I expect the final point total to be closer to 50.

44.5 just seems way too low for a short week game featuring these defenses. The Chargers have seriously struggled to stop the run, and rank bottom of the league over the last month in defensive success rate. They gave up 27 points to a struggling Commanders team, 27 to a broken Dolphins team, and 38 to the Colts who basically walked through the Chargers last week. I’m not much more confident in the Vikings defense, whose secondary got shredded last week by an Eagles offense that has been out of whack. Both defenses are liable to get beat, and both offenses have the firepower to take this over the total.

Herbert is over this rushing yards mark in 5/7 games this season. The Chargers offensive line and has been ravaged by injury to start the year, so Herbert may be on the move in this matchup. Vikings DC Brian Flores is known for his creative blitz schemes, and I expect him to try to exploit LA’s pass protection issues. The Chargers have also struggled to get their rushing attack going with their backup RB’s. Despite throwing for a whopping 55 pass attempts in his last game, Herbert still went over his rushing yards total. The Chargers desperately need to snap their three-game skid, and I envision Herbert scrambling for some key first downs in this game.

Did you know that 70% of the Chargers' yardage in 2025 has come through the passing game? That's fifth in the NFL, and the Chargers will yet again need to rely on Justin Herbert's arm Thursday night. The good news is that tackle Joe Alt, who is questionable, expects to play and has been back at practice since last week. With Alt on the field for the Chargers, Herbert averages 9.2 air yards per pass attempt compared to 6.5 air yards per attempt without Alt. The Chargers RB2 Hassan Haskins has also been ruled out, making the running game very thin. Look for a pass-heavy Chargers attack with Alt back, and I like Herbert to soar past this line.

As we have seen so little of JJ McCarthy as an NFL QB, it is hardly out of the question to back the Vikings with Carson Wentz, who represents little if any downgrade, and has at worst proven serviceable and at best something more than that since being called from the bullpen. Besides, the Chargers don't have the look of a margin team right now, riding four straight spread losses, fortunate two weeks ago to escape Miami with a win, their only W in the past four games. Injuries not helping, especially on the defensive side, but Justin Herbert has also often been under siege during the past month, and the Chargers don't look like they're ready to dominate anyone right now. Play Vikings

TJ Hockenson has been a reliable dump off valve for Carson Wentz and has had 4+ receptions in four consecutive games. Hockenson has seen his ADOT shrink from 9.0 last year to just 5.0 this season and while that has capped his yardage output, it certainly benefits a volume based approach. According to Fantasy Points’ coverage matchup tool, Hockenson has an excellent matchup against the types and rates of coverage the Chargers deploy; Hock’s is the best TE matchup of the week based solely on this criterion.

This is strictly a value play. Addison is flying under the radar becasue of his suspension, so he's lower than Gadsen when it comes to ATD markets. That's kind of silly -- if the Vikings are dogs here, they should be throwing more. Addison has -- and I did a double take here -- 26 targets in the three games since he's returned from suspension. And that includes a first half benching for missing a London walkthrough. This is a prime regression spot and maybe the best touchdown value on the board.

Carson Wentz starts his 5th straight game at quarterback for the Vikings at the Chargers on Thursday night, while JJ McCarthy allegedly has a sprained ankle. Wentz has won at Cleveland and also won a home game against the Bengals, but in his last three games, he's thrown four interceptions with the Vikings losing twice. The Chargers have lost three of their last four games after starting out 3-0 to start the season. We know they’ve got a good defense, a good quarterback, and a good coach in Jim Harbaugh, McCarthy’s former coach. The lull in the season is over for the Chargers, and a win comes Thursday night in a short week where the home team has an advantage. Chargers to cover.

We're going to lean into a narrative about Gadsen's playing time and performance that's been building all season around the rookie hybrid tight end out of Syracuse. The Chargers coaching staff's been hyping Gadson up and despite having a plethora of weapons, it's clear Justin Herbert trusts him. There's probably "better" value on his receptions over at 4.5 or even just taking him to hit 50 receiving yards at a solid plus-money number. But this line at FanDuel is much lower than the rest of the market and we're going to jump on it early Thursday and lean into his YAC production as Herbert looks to get the ball out quickly against a blitz-heavy Minnesota defense.

I was on the Vikings last week off of a bye and their performance was very disappointing. As bad as Carson Wentz was, they still had a number of opportunities to win that game. For the second straight week, I don't understand why the Chargers are favored. Their offensive line is down to 3rd and 4th stringers. They no longer have a running game - and the Vikings have a very solid defense. Getting the hook here is key - even though my numbers make Minnesota a 1-point favorite. We'll ride with purple again this week and try to turn it into green.

Carson Wentz has started the past four games for Minnesota, and in those games T.J. Hockenson has recorded five, four, six and six catches. He has gottten 26 targets in that span (6.5 per game). In the past two games, the Chargers have given up 14 targets and 11 catches to opposing tight ends. Hockenson's backup, Josh Oliver, has drawn seven targets all season, so he shouldn't cut into the target share much.

It's going to be the Carson Wentz show for perhaps the final time, and while he's coming off his worst game of 2025, I'm optimistic he performs well here. The Chargers defense has caught some breaks in matchups, watching Xavier Worthy go down immediately in Week 1, getting Jaxson Dart's debut, etc. Last week it all fell apart against a strong Colts offense, but it was the third straight game allowing 27+ points and at least three offensive TDs, with one coming against a broken Miami offense. I see the Vikings putting up points here and getting a backdoor cover if needed, and I don't see the Chargers running away with the game with an unreliable rushing attack.

How much can the Vikings rely on QB Carson Wentz to play above the Xs and Os with regards to pressure? That's the biggest concern in this game, as you can see a pathway for Chargers QB Justin Herbert to do so. In a game where both QBs may be a bit under duress more often than not, I trust Herbert to be able to find enough plays in the passing game to get them over the hump.

Gave out Jordan Mason ATD, think it's worth the price at 8-1 to dabble on two touchdowns. Mason is getting semi-workhorse carries (13+ in each of the last four games), the Chargers rush defense is the worst in football over the last three weeks (5.8 ypc) and they've given up a ridiculous seven touchdowns to running backs in the last three games. Note it's just .25u to win 2u.

The Chargers defense is on quite the disastrous streak of allowing touchdowns to running backs. They've given up seven (seven!) in the last three games, ceding two scores to Bill Crosky-Merritt, a pair to De'Von Achane and then three to Jonathan Taylor last week. They simply can't stop the run right now, ranking dead last in the NFL in yards per rush given up (5.8) over the last three weeks. This early week price for Jordan Mason is nice, as he should really be closer to -120.

Minnesota moved the ball well against Philly but floundered in the red zone. The Vikings should also have success against a Chargers’ defense that’s been exposed in consecutive weeks. And over the past three weeks, LA has given up 6.7 yards per play. Even if Joe Alt returns for LA, I love Minnesota getting over a field goal.