Let's not sugar coat it; Justin Herbert was relegated to statue status early last season dealing with a myriad of lower body injuries. This is a QB who needs to lean into his legs more in a Greg Roman offense and I think we see that tonight behind a banged up OL. Look, he's never going to be a volume runner but given the assignment tonight in division against a team that plays a ton of man there will be running lanes available that are worth taking.

Omarion Hampton has been named the starting RB for the Chargers, and considering how highly they like him as a pass-catcher, I'm surprised this number isn't higher. The Chargers are expected to be playing from behind, and there should be a need for dump-offs to Hampton with the state of the Chargers' O-line. All it takes is one dynamic play for this to cash, but I'd be surprised if he hasn't cleared this number by halftime.

The Chargers brought in Tyler Conklin and drafted Oronde Gadsden after leaning primarily on Will Dissly at TE last year, and because Conklin is a better receiver than Dissly and there are questions about snap share, Conklin has the higher O/U. I'm going to fade that decision as I see it more likely Dissly is on the field more to help as a blocker as the line adjusts to not having Rashawn Slater. With the reliable Keenan Allen on the team and a pass-catching feature back in Omarion Hampton, I can't see Conklin as a relevant part of the offense.

The Chargers performed admirably in Coach Harbaugh's 1st season; making the playoffs before being curb stomped by the Texans. Lost in the successful season was a defense that showed vulnerability everytime they stepped up in class and I have concerns. Meanwhile for KC I'm handicapping them as a team headed back to their roots of an average defense and more explosive offense (even without Rashee Rice) entering the season. We missed a few numbers here both full game and 1H so small value bet on the 1H total but also do like KC 1H team total over as a sneaky angle as well if you've got access to the market

I am very high on the 22nd overall pick Hampton, and selected him as my Offensive Rookie of the Year (+750) as well, in our SportsLine NFL Futures Fantasy Draft. I like Hampton to clear his rushing yards total and find the end zone in his NFL debut.

Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh confirmed that Omarion Hampton will be the RB1 in their debut, and I expect big things out of the rookie this season. Hampton was a two-time first-team All-American, and two-time first-team All-ACC at North Carolina. LAC were 27th in rushing success rate last year, a mark that a run-heavy style coach like Harbaugh eagerly wants to improve. By drafting Hampton in the first round and adding former Eagles Guard Mekhi Becton to their offensive line, the Chargers proved they are committed to doing exactly that. Look for them to test their new weapon on the ground in Week 1. 

I've been vocal about being a Chargers fader this year and it'll be no different this week against a Chiefs team that is eager to bounce back after an embarrasing Super Bowl. Ultimately I think these teams are somewhat evenly matched, but the Chargers have had to deal with a myriad of pre-season issues with their skill position players and their offensive line and that's enough to sway me toward Kansas City (yes, the Chiefs also had an issue with Rashee Rice that they were likely planning for). I expect this to be somewhat low scoring and I lean to the under (especially if it hits 47 before kickoff), but I'll defer to Steve Spanguolo and Andy Reid to outscheme the Chargers.

While the Chiefs have been known to ebb and flow early in seasons, this is a spot in which they should thrive. All offseason, Kansas City has been stewing about its Super Bowl loss, hearing that the AFC is ready to pass them by. Patrick Mahomes' WR corps have improved, the RBs are healthy and the defensive front is beastly. The Chargers are debuting new pieces with late camp injuries putting them at a disadvantage. This will probably be a one-score win that should be two scores for Kansas City, as per usual, but that single digit will be more than three.

Xavier Worthy looks poised to serve as Patrick Mahomes primary target with Rashee Rice set to serve a 6 game suspension to begin the season. Worthy had an up and down rookie season but things clicked for Worthy who eclipsed this line in his 4/5 appearances (including playoffs), Worthy averaged 431 yards (86 YPG), to go along with 5 TDs and 8.5 targets per game. I expect more passing volume from Patrick Mahomes and company and for worthy to take a significant leap in year 2.

In 12 career games against the Chargers, Patrick Mahomes is averaging 272.5 passing yards per game. Rashee Rice may be out, but I really like the group of wide receivers the Chiefs have put together for Mahomes. This is a spot where I expect the three-time Super Bowl MVP to finish closer to 300 yards through the air.

Justin Herbert's pass TD production started slowly in Greg Roman's offense, but once Ladd McConkey broke out he helped Herbert rediscover his mojo. Herbert's pass TD line is 1.5 heavily juiced under but that reflects his 6 TDs in the first 6 game last season. I think his production the final 11 games (16 pass TDs) is more indicative of how 2025 will go. Ladd McConkey accounted for 35% of team rec TDs as a rookie which was much higher than the 28% of team receptions. We give McConkey a 40%+ chance of scoring a TD on Friday, making +175 good value.

Patrick Mahomes is averaging 0.7 INTs per sim which translates to roughly a 60% chance of throwing at least one, which is solid value here. Mahomes has not been Mahomes-like the last 2 seasons but expect him to be more aggressive throwing downfield this year. But he does not have weapons that compare to when he had peak Tyreek Hill from '18-'22 with Rashee Rice suspended, Hollywood Brown questionable, and Travis Kelce declining. His line is very low because he did not throw a pick from 11/24 through the AFC Championship game. But he started with a pick in his first 6 games of '24. He had a high INT rate to start 2023 going 7-4 over 0.5 in their first 11 games.

There is more than enough offense to go around in Kansas City. Expect this offense to be just fine, but where you can see some continued growth this year is along the defensive line. That is going to show itself early in this matchup, as the Chargers are already down one elite player in Rashawn Slater, forcing them to reshuffle up front just a bit.

DraftKings. After a season 2024 marred by injury, Marquise Brown will be suiting up for only his sixth time as a Chief. Last season, he only had one 20-yard catch, and an average depth of target of 10.8 yards. After another lost preseason in which Brown was sidelined with an ankle injury (and Andy Reid hinting that he might be limited in Week 1), I like this as an under spot. The Chargers employed a two-high safety look at the third highest rate in 2024 under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, looking to take away the deep shots. We have yet to see Brown break off a long pass with the Chiefs, and I’ll bank on the lack of chemistry in Week 1 continuing that trend.

This sportsbook is charging a steep price for the extra half-point — most books are listing +3 — but consider it an insurance policy in case the teams end separated by a field goal. With top Chiefs WR Rashee Rice suspended for six games and newly engaged TE Travis Kelce (congrats!) in a gradual slide toward retirement, K.C.’s offense might not be as fluid as usual. The Chargers got a lift when RB Najee Harris recently was cleared to play after a Fourth of July fireworks accident. K.C. tends to get overbet, having lost seven in a row last season ATS. L.A., by contrast, covered in 12 of 17 regular season outings a year ago.

I love when players are priced like they are 'normal' for their position. In this case, Xavier Worthy as a WR being priced primarily based on what % of passing TDs they can expect then adjusted for team total. Worthy had scored a receiving TD in 42% of his games last season (including playoffs) which is what +140 implies. But Andy Reid from Day 1 schemed how to use his speed to score 3 rushing touchdowns. When you throw in that Rashee Rice accepted a 6 game suspension, Hollywood Brown has not been 100% in years, and Worthy's rushing TD potential, this is a great bet.

The Chargers enter the season a little banged up on the offensive line, which is likely to be a problem against a healthy and well-rested Chiefs defensive front. Patrick Mahomes also benefits from Rashee Rice’s potential suspension being delayed. With Rice, Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Travis Kelce, and a healthy backfield, Mahomes should have plenty of support offensively. Considering the injuries, current depth charts, and the neutral-site location, I make the Chiefs -4.5 in Week 1. Despite that projection, I would ONLY play Kansas City at -3 (-115) or better.

The Chiefs swept this series last year as part of their 11-0 one-score record, and I'd generally be looking to play the Chargers in this type of spot. But then you look at the injury report, where the Chargers have been victimized during the preseason with Rashawn Slater out, Mekhi Becton questionable and multiple receivers and defenders dealing with issues. The Chiefs come in healthy and should make life difficult for Justin Herbert and the run game up front, while Patrick Mahomes should have success even without Rashee Rice as the blocking on the left side should be much improved. This is trending toward 3.5, so I want to jump on the -3 before we get closer to game time.