Since midseason, the Broncos’ coaching staff has made a concerted effort to get Marvin Mims the ball. With their season on the line, look for Denver to continue to feed Mims. He could go Over this prop with a few screens or with one downfield throw.

Let’s take the Chiefs early. We are seeing it’s not easy to just rout an NFL team who is playing backups.

Nix has put together a very impressive year. And while KC is still formidable Nix has eclipsed this in 6/7.

This line has crept up a couple of yards, but I still think it's very bettable at this 35.5 number (BetMGM). There are three RBs that get touches on this team, but in a must win, you need to go to your best one and that is clearly Jaleel McLaughlin. The carries and efficiency have been there recently and he's projected to see 8-9 carries. Add the fact that the Chiefs are resting over half of their defensive starters, including Chris Jones, and it could be a great mix for Jaleel to establish himself as the clear RB1 heading to the playoffs.

Denver can clinch a wild card playoff berth with a win over KC. Although the Chiefs will be playing their backups, this +11 spread seems too wide. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo are most of my handicap here. Not sure a 15-1 team’s backups should be catching more than 10. Carson Wentz is a capable QB2 with the mobility to scramble against a pressuring Denver defense. Speaking of pressure, this is a big spot for rookie QB Bo Nix to deliver a home win. I think Denver wins this game on the back of their defense, but with a low total of 40 and a double digit spread, don’t be surprised if the Chiefs give the Broncos a scare and keep this close.

I'll bite here. Carson Wentz has been plenty solid enough in this role before. The Chiefs cannot rest every quality football player they have. A very young Denver team could be a little tight here in a big spot to try to reach the playoffs. Andy Reid doesn't make a habit of getting blown out. Especially in division games. Broncos put up all of 260 offensive yards in the first meeting. Steve Spags will still blitz and create some issues for young Bo Nix. Even with KC's travel complications I don't think this will be easy for the Broncos.

The Denver Broncos have a must-win game against the Chiefs on Sunday to make the playoffs. Lucky for the Broncos, the Chiefs are resting several starters, including some key defensive starters. The Broncos have relied on the arm of Nix, as their running game has been average this season. Nix has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of the last seven games. He threw for two touchdowns in the Broncos' first matchup against the Chiefs this season. I like Nix to throw for two or more touchdown passes Sunday against several Chiefs backups.

Week 18 has a lot of contract incentives, and Courtland Sutton needs 82 receiving yards to earn $500,000. Sutton would hit his incentive bonus if he exceeds his receiving prop. There is extra financial motivation, but the biggest factor is the Broncos have a must-win game Sunday to make the playoffs. Sutton has become QB Bo Nix's go-to target, receiving nine or more targets in seven of the last nine games. I like Sutton to be a key part of the Broncos' offense against several Chiefs' backup defensive players.

McLaughlin has emerged as a staple in the Broncos run game in each of his past four games, and has 40-plus yards in 3 of the 4. Denver appears to tailor its run offense to its opponents' weakness, but the Chiefs have struggled against both runs to the edges and runs between the tackles over their past five. Inside runs have been bad -- 7.3 yards per carry to the Steelers on Christmas and 8.6 to the Browns in Week 15. And they could be playing some backups on defense. McLaughlin has averaged at least 6.0 yards per rush in 3 of his past 4 -- if he gets that average again in a must-win matchup, he'll be over this by seven carries, maybe six.

1.5u bet for me, personally. Caesar’s. Coming out of the Broncos’ Week 14 bye, it’s been clear they’ve looked to get Marvin Mims more involved. In the three games since the week off, Mims has caught ten designed screen passes. He’s become one of their best offensive weapons, and Sean Payton is no longer deploying him as only a deep threat. Overall, he’s hit this in six of the last seven. Chiefs likely will rest their better defensive players, so not really concerned about the matchup either. He’s been so vital to their offense, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t still largely involved in the gameplan, in a must-win game.

You may think I'm chasing last week's performance against the Bengals, but the truth is, Marvin Mims has smashed this number in 5 of his last 6 games. Bo Nix likes to spread it around to all of his pass catchers, but Mims has clearly carved out enough of a role to get 4+ targets per game and it's been 8 and 5 targets over his last two games. He's getting the work, he's been efficient and he gets downfield and that is a great setup for an over at such a low number. This game is tricky with Denver being such huge favorites, but I think Bo Nix continues to look in Marvin Mims direction.

If you could get your friend a $2 million bonus would you? I'm gonna assume yes. I certainly would. Denver's Courtland Sutton gets that much if he gets 82 receiving yards on Sunday -- in a game the Broncos have to win. I promise you that Bo Nix knows about this, so it won't be for a lack of targets.

The Broncos are one win away from a playoff spot and facing a Chiefs team resting players, which should allow for Denver's best receiver to have a good game. There are contract incentives on the line for Sutton if he reaches 82 yards, and as a result I expect Bo Nix to feed him early and often. Sutton got to 70 yards in the first meeting with a competitive Chiefs team, so even if most of the starting defense is on the field he should have a good shot of reaching his incentive.

This has been an auto-play for me for over a month and I love him here vs Chiefs backups. Sean Payton is playing the long game with this kid and his run game stinks and he wants Nix to throw the ball for four quarters (or OT). Nix has hit this in 6 of 7 games and 5 of 6 a home. He has 15 TDs in those 6 home games. He has a 93.7 rating at home. Payton wants him throwing them to the postseason.

Four seasons ago, Kansas City had locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC West when it played host to Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes and fellow Chiefs standouts stayed on the sideline and watched the Raiders' 38-21 win. A similar scenario applies here. The difference is, while the Raiders had been eliminated, Denver must win to reach the playoffs. The Broncos will go all-out, seeking to build an insurmountable lead -- especially after frittering away Saturday's game at Cincinnati. The 8.5-point spot might sound steep, but Denver should come out gangbusters against an assortment of K.C. backups.