This pains me greatly, but the Bears have not been sharp at all on the road, and they are really banged up with star pass-rusher Montez Sweat, the team's top two left tackles and two starters in the secondary out. Hey, I'd love to be wrong here ...

This matchup features a pair of quarterbacks who are each capable of explosive performances. Chicago has been one of the bigger surprises of the season on the defensive side of the ball, but I still expect 21+ points from the Cardinals. On the other side, I expect a much better performance from Caleb Williams and the Chicago offense this week. I see this game total reaching 47+ points.

There might be a tad of recency bias here seeing the Cardinals come back to beat the Dolphins last week, but Arizona has found ways to score against quality defenses. Chicago may boast the best in the league, but it seriously struggles to move the ball efficiently on offense. The Bears have yet to beat a winning team this season, while the Cards have only lost to future playoff teams. Montez Sweat being out should allow Kyler Murray enough time in the pocket to attack over the top with Marvin Harrison, Jr.

Just when you believe you can trust the Cardinals, you're wrong. Last week, the Bears saw their three-game winning streak snapped on the now-infamous Hail Mary from the Commanders. Arizona, conversely, rallied for a road win in Miami. However, if there's a team you can count on to take a step back following one forward, it's Arizona.

I feel like I've been involved in a number of Cardinals games lately and it won't stop here. This is a Cardinals team that has found the knack for making plays late in games with an offense starting to find a bit of rhythm with new pieces. However, let's not sugar coat that angle it's more a play against a Bears team openly questioning its coaching staff dealing with injuries in the back. Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, and Montez Sweat are all expected to miss today and that's a big problem. Caleb Williams had his third game with a passer rating of 60 or below within his first 7 career starts last week. Since 2017, the only other QB with that distinction is Zach Wilson. 

We're beginning to believe in the Cardinals, who have taken advantage of the 49ers' struggles and hit the half-mile pole tied for first place in the crowded NFC West. Granted, this is about the point of recent campaigns when the Big Red started to fade, but no signs of such as of yet, probably because Kyler Murray remains healthy after almost annually getting hurt past midseason in recent years. The emergence of star rookie wideout Marvin Harrison, Jr, can't be dismissed either. Meanwhile we wonder a bit about the Bears and any potential hangover from Washington's Hail Mary winner last Sunday in Landover. Play Cardinals on ML

The Arizona Cardinals have suddenly found themselves atop the NFC West. Over their last two games they have found a way to pull out close wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins. Look for the Bears to shake off an embarrassing finish against Washington last week, and pull together on both sides of the football. Take the Bears plus the points.

Initially I was leaning toward the Bears in a bounceback spot, despite the fact that Chicago has played a much easier schedule (32nd per DVOA, compared to Arizona facing the 2nd-toughest). But the Bears' final injury report was extremely concerning. That includes a DNP by Montez Sweat on Friday, which coach Matt Eberflus called a rest day for Sweat's injured shin. Sweat is Chicago's top pass rusher and a true difference-maker. Kyler Murray excels against Cover-3 looks, which the Bears employ at the fourth-highest rate. Back the host Cardinals to notch their fourth win in five games.

Let's be real about who the Bears are. They got lucky to take the lead late against Washington and then got beat on a Hail Mary. They won against Jacksonville, Carolina, and the LA Rams who didn't have their two star receivers. Before that they lost to the Colts and Houston and they beat Tennessee because of stupidity by the Titans. So ugly. Now we got a team like the Cardinals who have won three out of their last four which includes wins against the 49ers, Chargers, and Miami. They found that Marvin Harrison Jr is always open and Kyler Murray realizes it now. The Bears only average 302 yards a game which ranks 27th in the NFL. Arizona picks up the win.

Swift has been the top generator of the Bears offense -- when he's rolling, they all play well. Not surprisingly, Swift has gone over this mark in each of his past four games. He's also had at least 16 carries in each game, meaning all he has to do is average 4.1 yards per carry to hit this over. The Cardinals have allowed 4.7 yards per carry on the season and have given up at least 4.6 yards per rush to seven different RBs this year, and a RB has had at least 65 yards in all but two games versus the Redbirds. Swift should continue to get opportunities in a favorable matchup.

Bears tight end Cole Kmet was targeted just once last week at Washington, catching a 14-yard pass. However, Caleb Williams was under constant pressure, completed just 10 passes and and threw for 131 yards. This is a much softer matchup and we're getting a nice price on Kmet because of his Week 8 dud. In the previous four games, Kmet went 70, 57, 34 and 97 yards. He's facing an Arizona team that allows 7.25 targets per game to tight ends, tied for seventh-most. Gerald Everett might steal a couple targets, but I still bet Kmet to clear his receiving yards prop.

The Bears haven’t allowed 20 to anyone this year. Quite simply they are THE best D in football. In fact last week the gave up a Hail Mary to the over praised Commander O and that still held them below 20.

Swift is the Bears offense these days, especially on the road. And Arizona has looked good stopping the run once in the last 5 weeks, and that was against an injured Chargers OL. Swift might touch the ball 25 times here (he's averaged 21/G since getting comfortable in this offense). He is averaging 133 scrimmage yards in the last 4 games and over 119 in all 4. He's rushing for 97/game in that span at 5.4/carry. Cardinals allowing 4.9/carry since Week 3. Bears can't let rookie QB Caleb Williams try to do too much here. What am I missing?

The Bears stink on the road and rookie QB Caleb Williams struggles mightily on the road and this is now a huge game for Chicago after a horrific loss last week. Swift carried the offense in the second half in DC when they finally started moving the ball and I expect a heavy load here vs a bad run D. He has 16+ carries in 4 straight and is averaging 133 scrimmage yards in that span and Bears cannot afford turnovers or getting cute here (like stupid goal line fumble by an OL last week). Matt Eberflus is uber conservative and coaching for his job. AZ 26th in success rate vs run since Week 3. He's averaging 18 runs per game the last 4.

The Bears passing offense struggled last week against the Commanders while the run game looked great. This should be a better matchup for the passing attack with Arizona's defense 30th in net yards per pass attempt, last in third-down success rate and 31st in points allowed per drive. Shane Waldron's Seattle offense also had a lot of success running the ball against this Arizona defense last year, so I expect a Bears offense loaded with talent to put up a bunch of points here.

The Bears are probably the better team here, but Matt Eberflus is a crappy head coach who never has his teams ready to play on the road (3-17 SU/7-13 ATS). Their first half slumbers are staggering - in his 20 road games they have led at the half just twice, and been tied just 4 times. That's 14 times behind; 13 times they've trailed by 3+ points. They have 7 points or less in 5 of their last 6 first halves on road. Their -116 first half road PD is only better than Carolina since 2022. Arizona is a mere +2 at home in first half, but playing with energy lately and Bears are 0-3 on road with -14 PD; 4-0 with +58 at home.