The Jags are short of pass defenders in general and their top safety, Sisco, was the best they had. I don't think they can put a LB on this TE, who is really used more like a WR (Ricard, the FB, is often the blocking TE). He excels at YAC and has earned more trust from Lamar since Andrews went down. I see him being the second most targeted pass catcher for the Ravens tonight, behind OBJ.

Wanted to see what this wind and rain and all of that looked like and judging from warm-ups, it looks just fine. Todd Monken wants to throw the football and I see them attacking the Jags this week like they did the Rams last week. Jags secondary is broken by injury and they have not been able to defend the pass. Crossers are an issue. Deep balls are an issue. I think they throw until they dont have to anymore.

This is a solid take number on a Jags club that has lost two straight by seven combined points and suddenly sees the Colts and Texans in its rearview with just a one-game lead. The celebrated Ravens defense is banged up the secondary and yielded 31 points and 410 yards to the Rams last week. This is the start of a rough stretch for the Ravens that includes a visit to San Francisco next week.

Not overly thrilled with the line movement here as the Ravens at -3 is the right play in this road spot, but I'm still comfortable at -3.5 / -4. The Jaguars are badly in need of a win after dropping two straight, but the Ravens are 7-1 ATS this season as favorites of four points or less, and Baltimore is in a dogfight with Miami for the No. 1 seed. Those teams meet head-to-head later this season, but for now, the Ravens need to take care of business. The Jags defense will continue to struggle against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens runnin ggame, while Baltimore should be able to continue limiting Trevor Lawrence, who has struggled of late.

This could be a big primetime moment for Keaton Mitchell. He continues every week to prove himself and see more volume. With some weather conditions to account for, I can see this already run dominant offense hit the gas the harder. While everyone's attention is on this weak Jags secondary, I think we can still get enough production on the ground from Mitchell. Our model projects him for 56 yards.

Isaiah Likely hasn't fully stepped into Mark Andrews role, but things are certainly trending in a positive direction. He's had 13 targets over his last two games and he's caught 9 of them. It's that type of volume and efficiency that we should see tonight in Jacksonville. Keep in mind that weather is a small issue tonight and it's the short area, where Likely will work, that should be peppered by Lamar Jackson. I also expect Likely to surpass his yardage total (33.5), but I prefer the reception prop at even money.

Tyson Campbell is out leaving the Jags short in the secondary. Their best Cb should shadow ZFlowers leaving Odell to have opportunities. There will be rain but it’s definitely not cold. Lamar likes Odell and this is prime time. Let’s go over

With Trevor Lawrence another week beyond his recently-injured ankle, he figures to at least be closer to 100% for the Jags then last week at Cleveland, when he still tossed 3 TDP against the stingy browns defense. Worth noting that the last four Jacksonville games have all landed on 48 points or higher, and five of the last seven Ravens games have hit 44 or higher. With Lamar Jackson (3 TDP last week vs. the Rams) in his own groove, reaching 42 points hardly seems a big hurdle for these two to clear on Sunday night. Play Ravens-Jags "Over"

Zay Jones drew an incredible 14 targets last week, but caught just five of them for 29 yards. On Sunday Night Football, Jones will be matched up often with top Ravens corner Marlon Humphrey. Look for far fewer targets and similar production in a tough matchup.

The vig is steep here but worth the price on losing the hook at 3.5. Only one of the Ravens' wins this season has happened by fewer than six points, and it was by three. They have stumbled just once in six road outings. QB Lamar Jackson is unbothered playing away from home, and he takes aim at a secondary minus a pair of starters. The Jaguars are also ailing on offense with top WR Christian Kirk out and QB Trevor Lawrence unable to take some R&R for his high ankle sprain.

We jumped this two weeks ago, when Engram had yet to score all season, and it cashed, We actually sprinkled on 2 TDS in that game, and instead he did that last week. Lawrence locks in on him in the RZ and I like him against several of theses Ravens DBs. He can work the middle of the field. Ravens do not let you score on the ground - lead the NFL with 4 rushing TDs allowed - and I do see points in this game for both teams. He has the QBs trust where it matters most and this is a nice return.

Marlon Humphrey got picked on mercilessly by Matt Stafford on Sunday and, frankly, he should be playing in the slot this week. No matter where he is, Trevor Lawrence will try to pick up where Stafford left off and I see them fighting to get Engram on Humphrey. Engram is getting way more looks with Kirk out. Last two games: 11 catches on 12 targets for 95 yards and 9/9 for 85. I think he can mimic what Coopere Kupp did against this defense last week.

Owing to the Ravens' offensive scheme, opposing safeties who play close to the line of scrimmage usually rack up tackles. That should be the case Sunday night for Rayshawn Jenkins. He's cleared this prop total in three straight games. Jenkins is an every-down player who ranks second on the team in snaps, just 11 behind Foyesade Oluokun.

No one has grabbed a bigger share of the Ravens passing game since Mark Andrews went down that Beckham. Lamar loves throwing to him, tends to feed him in prime time and Beckham has 97+ yards in the last two games he's been healthy (gutted through the game at Chargers but wasn't himself). And even in that game he has 34 yards. He is beating people with speed and double moves again and winning not just on inside slants but on the boundary, too. Jags are 24th vs the pass and Ravens finally are getting more big plays out of their pass game. Beckham has a reception of 40 yards or more in three of the last four games.

These teams played a 28-27 barnburner at Jacksonville last year and this could top that. Ravens are much more pass-happy these days and have unlocked a big play offense in recent weeks. Have scored 31+ in 6 of the last 7. And their defense has some issues despite its lofty rankings, as the Rams game evidenced. Three of the last 4 Ravens games have gone over 54 and 5 of 7 have gone over 44. Four straight Jags games are at 45+ and 7 of 9. Jags have attempted the 2nd most passes in the NFL the last 4 weeks and Ravens secondary looking a little shakier these days. Lamar is in top MVP form and Jags have given up 24+ in 4 straight games.

This number feels way too low considering what we last saw in prime time from the Jaguars, when they squared off against the Bengals in Jacksonville. Yes, Trevor Lawrence is injured and the Ravens defense can be hyper aggressive, but the Jaguars should be able to score 17-20 points and do their half here. I don't think Baltimore will struggle to score at all -- we saw Lamar Jackson start using his legs more often last week than he had all season and he could uncork a high-end Lamar performance against a really bad Jags defense. Odell Beckham/Zay Flowers may be capable of filling the deep role and Isaiah Likely has enough upside for this offense not to miss a beat.

Jackson has made significant strides as a passer this season, and as a result he is on pace to set career highs across every passing category. While the early indications are that there could be inclement weather, I still think this is a great spot to back the Ravens QB. Jacksonville has been a significant pass funnel this season, because they have a stout run defense and a poor pass defense. I also think there are some potential game environments where Jacksonville can force Baltimore to air the ball out. Either way, this number feels closer to Jackson's floor, and if weather isn't a huge issue, he should easily sail north of this number.

I believe the spread and total are saying different things here. In a close game, I expect the Jaguars to score enough points to push the total Over. In a game that finishes around 42 points, it seems very likely the Ravens defense plays well and shuts down Trevor Lawrence and Co. Basically, I don't see a scenario where the Jaguars defense keeps Baltimore's offense in check considering they were beaten up and down the field by Jake Browning and Joe Flacco the last two weeks. The Ravens have scored 24 points in seven of their last eight games, and this doesn't look like a defense that should give them trouble.

Lamar is over this in two of the last three games, and the Ravens aren't riding Gus Edwards for rushing TDs anymore. Even with Mark Andrews out, Jackson is flinging it around and the Jags are much more vulnerable defending the pass. Have allowed this to hit in 4 of 5 games since the bye. Even guys like Will Levis and Joe Flacco, right off the couch, have hit it. Only 3 teams have allowed more passing TDs than the Jags. Lamar is in peak form fresh off a bye

Your guess is as good as anyone as to who will get the carries with Todd Monken calling plays, but I suspect they throw to a lead and run late and there is at least 50 yards on that field for this explosive back who doesn't need many carries to get over a number like this. He has a run of 21 yards or more in all 5 games he's played, his workload will go up on the road with Ravens OTs struggling in pass protection and Josh Allen wrecking games. He's too fast and electric for this number

This defense had no answers for Lamar running around a year ago and I don't think that changes here. Jags are terrible when the other team has a FB on the field (26th in run D EPA) and Ravens have a dominant FB in Ricard. Lamar is often their leader in rush attempts. He's over this in 3 of the last 5 and will be running more as Ravens try to secure 1 seed. Always has more rushes late in season. Stroud, not a big runner, just went 6-47 on Jags, Browning had 2-22. Lamar will break some long ones in prime time.

December is always the month when Lamar cranks up his legs and he's going to start going over 70 yards and 10 carries with regularity. He's at 10 or more in three of the last four games, and I expect some kneel downs here as well. Lamar ran 14 times for 89 yards against them last year in Jacksonville. Ravens lack a go-to RB and this could very well be another game where he leads them in rushes and rushing yards.

The Ravens have scored 31 or more in 6 of 7. They have the NFL's 2nd best run game and 4th best passing game (per pass). The Jags are allowing 27/G in their last five since their bye, and aren't good at home (3-4). They are 30th in the NFL in offensive TDs allowed the past 4 weeks and 29th in yards/play allowed and have given up 11 TD passes to just 1 INT over the past 5 games. Jags are terrible vs teams that use a FB and Pat Ricard is an All Pro. A lesser Ravens offense scored 27 at Jacksonville last year. BAL averages 28/G, This number is too low. Ravens D will help with sacks and turnovers vs a bad OL.

The Ravens gave up 31 points at home to the Rams last week, and in the process they might have lost safety Kyle Hamilton (MCL sprain) for Sunday Night Football. Hamilton is Baltimore's second-best defender, per PFF, he makes impact plays with regularity. He was a limited practice participant Wednesday but admitted his status is up in the air. Jacksonville is coming off consecutive losses, but Trevor Lawrence's ankle doesn't appear to be an issue as he practiced fully Wednesday. The Lamar Jackson-led Ravens are 5-16 ATS when favored by more than a field goal, while the Jaguars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 versus winning teams. Look for Jacksonville to slow down Baltimore's ground game and keep this close, if not win outright.