The Steelers’ menacing defense against rookie QB Will Levis on the road in prime time is the play tonight, and while we are paying a bit of a price by waiting (-2.5 was the right line only for it to be inflated before kickoff), I’d still rather have Pittsburgh at home in this spot. The Titans are 0-6 straight up on the road dating back to last season, and their woeful secondary should allow the Steelers to find balance the offense usually struggles to achieve. I say “should” because Kenny Pickett claims he is playing. And in a low-scoring game, I’m absolutely going to take the more experienced QB with the better defense at home.

There seems to be a widespread perception that this will be a clunk, ugly field-goal fest that we've come to expect from Pittsburgh prime-time games. But both clubs are middling in terms of both yardage and scoring defense. They give up a combined average of 41 points per game and have enough firepower to generate big plays. Moreover, a Pittsburgh defense that seems to thrive in prime time could provide a score or a short field on a turnover.

Neal played 97% of the snaps. He is a thumper SS ex LB who will come down and bang heads all night with DHenry. This total is too low. Hasn’t been properly adjusted with MFitzpatrick out for Pittsburgh

Although the markets clearly expect some major regression from the rookie QB who burst on the scene with 4 TD passes last week, the Under being priced around -250 feels way out of line. It's not as if Pittsburgh's pass defense is some impenetrable force. It ranks No. 2 4in the NFL giving up 245 yards per game and three QBs -- C.J. Stroud, Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy -- have thrown for 2 or more TDs against this unit.

Spears has clipped this number in three of the past four games and basically got the short end of variance last week, with 3 catches on 4 targets for just 9 yards. But he is regularly schemed up on screens in the passing game and his basic usage alone should get him there, much less considering the idea that rookie QB Will Levis is unlikely to duplicate his debut success with long shots downfield.

Connor Heyward has hit this in 2 of his 3 games as the lead TE. While I don't expect a ton of passing on the Pittsburgh side, I love the fact that Heyward's targets are of the highly efficient low aDot variety. It's also notable that, per our very own Jacob Gibbs, Heyward was the first read on over 20% of his targets last week. You won't see much yardage from Heyward, but I expect him to secure 3 or more receptions.

I like the Titans with the QB change. Certainly not expecting multiple TD passes each week, but Will Levis has enough arm strength and big play upside that it does stretch the field and open up a lot for Derrick Henry. I like the Titans to do enough to score a 17th point in this contest.

This game has a low total and Pittsburgh has surrendered only 4 rushing TDs on the season, however Derrick Henry is projected to receive a massive workload. Considering Henry's role in the offense, usage, and that the implied probability on this prop is roughly 42%, I believe this spot is +EV. I will take a shot on Henry who is surely to be leaned on heavily in this matchup.

Will Levis gets the start tonight for the Titans in Pittsburgh and it's quite the tall task for a rookie QB in his first road start. Tennessee will look to run the ball as much as possible, however the kid will have to let it rip at some point. Rookie QB, road game...perfect time to play his safety valve and that's Derrick Henry in the short passing game. Tennessee utilized this even with Tannehill, they should absolutely do the same tonight with Levis (and even Malik Willis if he gets snaps too).

Henry’s median number far eclipses this total and Will Levis leaned on Henry in the short pass game in his only start. I made this number 17.5 giving us a fair advantage

Henry has been well over this number 3/6 times, all with usual plays and game scripts. Meanwhile the 3 times he was under there was extraordinary circumstances: TWICE the Titans only ran 40 offensive plays (a shockingly low level) and the third game they not only ran less than projected plays, but they also passed 2/3 of the time. This will go over.

This is one of those Steelers games in which someone digs up a Mike Tomlin stat on his record in certain situations. Here is the latest: Rookie QBs have lost all but one of their last 16 visits to Pittsburgh and are 0-5 in prime time. The caveat is that Tennessee's Will Levis might not be your normal NFL newcomer after his gem of a debut last Sunday. Still, the Steelers have video on him for game-planning and their defense is the 12th stingiest for yards. On the other side, QB Kenny Pickett is good to go after a rib injury knocked him out of Pittsburgh's game Sunday.

It is now the Will Levis era for the Tennessee Titans. I think Levis is now the Titans starting QB for the rest of the year, he threw four touchdown passes last week against Atlanta.Tannehill threw four TD passes in game just three times in the last four years. Levis' big arm can stretch the field giving more room to the running game. Please don't get me wrong I don't think Levis will throw four TD passes every game. He may not throw one on Thursday night but the Titans offense will be better with Levis. My model has Pittsburgh by one.

The Titans look all fancy with rookie Will Levis having a huge day in his debut with four TDs and finding Deandre Hopkins deep three times, but the Titans remain 0-3 on the road. Kenny Pickett is expected to play with his sore ribs as a target and the Steelers have the 30th-ranked offense and defense, but their pass rush is world class and that’s going to be a common theme in this game. Rookie QB making his first road start at Pittsburgh? The Titans are a road team on a short week. Steelers to win, cover.

The Titans are 0-4 away from home, losing three true road games and their visit to London versus the Ravens. Tennessee rookie QB Will Levis has a big arm, but top wideout De'Andre Hopkins is dealing with a toe injury that kept him from practicing Wednesday. Expect him to play but not be as dynamic as he was last Sunday. While the Steelers won't have safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, they'll get a huge lift from the return of run-stuffing defensive tackle Cameron Heyward. Fellow linemates T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith should wreak havoc versus a Titans O-line missing starting right tackle Chris Hubbard (concussion).

With rookie Will Levis making his first road start, that probably means fewer deep shots than Sunday and more dump-offs against an aggressive Pittsburgh defense. Henry can top this on a single catch easily and has topped it in five games so far.

Kenny Pickett will play -- guess that's a good thing? The Titans have allowed at least 23 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh really can't get to 20 at home? (Feels like a 20-17 game to me) Might take a defensive TD, but we still have to take it.

After a promising rookie season that saw Chig Okonkwo finish as the Titans second leading receiver, the ultra athletic TE looked poised for a potential sophomore breakout. That hasn't quite come fruition, however I do believe Will Levis will provide an upgrade at QB and Okonkwo is still scratching the surface. Despite playing in a low volume passing offense with subpar QB play this year, Okonkwo has at least 3 receptions in 5/7 games. Last week Chig finished with just 1 fewer target than DeAndre Hopkins. Chig could potentially see a few extra targets in the event Pittsburgh's pass rush is forcing Levis to get the ball out quickly. In any event, IMO this number is closer to Okonkwo's floor.

Steelers strong safety Keanu Neal wasn't a fulltime player before Minkah Fitzpatrick got hurt in the first quarter last Sunday. Neal played 97 percent of the snaps thereafter, finishing with seven tackles, and we should see more of the same here. The Titans will try to lean on Derrick Henry; Neal is the best run-stopper among Pittsburgh's healthy defensive backs. He played linebacker when he was on the Cowboys in 2021. Look for him to play in the box a lot Thursday and register at least six tackles.

While I do expect some of the deep shots will be a but curtailed with a novice QB (Will Levis) on the road for the first time, I also think his big arm will have ample opportunity to connect with Hopkins to get over this total. Last week the connection was real, as they combined for four catches, 128 yards and two scores. Hopkins for his career has 10 catches for 173 yards vs PIT and no Minkah Fitzpatrick should help him get loose. The Steelers have allowed 10 completions of 25 yards or more, tied for 26th in the NFL. We know who the downfield guy is for Levis.

When Wil Levis wasn't pumping the ball downfield to D-Hop, well, he was doing what a lot of young QBs would do with King Henry in the backfield. Spears still doesn't have as defined a role as I thought he would, and Henry's hands are plenty good out of the backfield. He had four grabs for 21 yards in Levis's debut and I see more in his future Thursday night. No Minkah Fitzpatrick means one less hybrid defender to try to corral him around the line of scrimmage on those screens.

Anyone watching the Steelers knows more designed screens to Jaylen Warren - and more runs for that matter - are in order. In a short week, with Kenny Pickett beat up, all the more reason to embrace the high-percentage pass. This has been a regular casher for us and while it is up one yard from the normal 18.5, it wouldn't surprise me to see him have a catch of this length alone. He’s had 19 or more in five of the last six games, and I expect Mike Tomlin to make sure Matt Canada calls his name in what is as close to a must-win game as you get in early November.

Weather report looks great in Pittsburgh and the Titans have 12 FGs made and attempted through three road games and the London game. Was all of that Ryan Tannehill? And will Will Levis fix it all? Their redzone woes seem pretty real and in what should be a low scoring game with two defensive-minded head coaches who have reason to believe the opposition will have trouble running up the points, I see them leaning to the easy three when it's there. Folk is having a great year, and I see the Steelers defense bowing up at home, as it did Sunday, and forcing kicks.

Pittsburgh's offense stinks all around, but the slow starts are epidemic. Steelers have 9 first half points over their last four games. Kenny Pickett doesn't get going til halftime, if at all. Titans offense has been brutal on the road (18 1st half points on road - 3rd fewest in NFL). And in his first road start on short rest and almost no prep time, do we think Will Levis will open the game bombs away? Or will it be a ton of Henry between the tackles against a soft rush defense? I'm counting on a slow pace and lots of runs with the clock moving and threes not sevens, particularly in the opening 30 minutes.

Vibes are high in Tennessee after Will Levis and Deandre Hopkins powered the Titans to a victory last week, but things will change when Levis plays in Pittsburgh Thursday night. I like this spot for the Steelers against a rookie QB on the road with very limited experience. This game will come down to who makes more mistakes and my money is on the visitors behind their rookie QB. Also notable that Kenny Pickett (ribs) is the likely starter and while the Steelers will be down Minkah Fitzpatrick, they will likely have Cameron Heyward back patrolling the defensive line alongside TJ Watt.

I'll be off the Steelers bandwagon for good if they burn me again here, but the Titans may well trade away DeAndre Hopkins and a few others today and rookie QBs like Will Levis almost never beat Mike Tomlin -- especially in Pittsburgh.

Will Levis hit a lot of big plays in his NFL debut, but he was also pretty inconsistent. He didn't look like a certified star, but he certainly left room for optimism. But there's a big difference between preparing to face Atlanta at home for two weeks and a four-day turnaround to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh. T.J. Watt and Co. should have the Tennessee O-line for lunch, and Levis on third-and-long in hostile territory could be doomed. Hopefully we'll get a healthy Mitchell Trubisky starting in this game as well as Cam Heyward's return, but with Pittsburgh's great home-field advantage I think this line is too low, even at -3.