While Christian Watson may be limited on Thursday night, Aaron Jones being back for the Packers is a huge boost for an offense that struggled to get going last week against the Saints. We have seen the Lions penchant for giving up points in bunches (vs. Sehawks), and on a short week in a road game at Lambeau Field in which they are also dealing with injury issues, I'm more than keen to take points with Green Bay, which should be favored in this spot.

The Lions are good against Green Bay (having won three straight) and are good overall (10-3 in their last 13 games). They are great in divisional games (10-0 against-the-spread in their last 10). And Jared Goff is 4-1 in his last five games against the Packers. I'm going to sprinkle a half unit on the Detroit money line.

The total continues to creep down. Each offense is capable of being explosive, however, in a divisional matchup like this the defenses should show up. Detroit can stop the run with their above average defensive line, despite Aaron Jones coming back tonight. The Packers still have a decent secondary, regardless of their injuries, holding opponents to 219 yards through the air.

Watson is set to make his season debut Thursday night after missing the first three games because of a hamstring injury. In limited action in hos rookie year, Watson proved to be a big-play magnet, averaging 14.9 yards on 41 catches with 7 TDs. Late in the season, the Packers schemed to get him involved near the goal line with pick plays and quick screens. They will likely be eager to get Watson involved Thursday and it won't come as a surprise if he finds the end zone.

The offensive lines are banged up, and these teams know each other well. Neither quarterback is great in this spot (Goff playing outdoors and Love struggling with accuracy issues). The Lions defense stops the run. Give me Under.

Don't look now, but the Lions' defense has made major strides in 2023. Aidan Hutchinson is turning into an elite rusher, and some additions in the secondary have helped solidify the backend. While the Packers get Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back tonight, their offensive line is still a major concern. Familiarity breeds contempt, and on a short week I I expect points to be at a premium, given both teams' emphasis on establishing the run.

Rarely ever do you see rookie Tight End's hit the ground running the way Sam LaPorta has in Detroit's offense. That being said, it is a TE friendly offense and he a QB that loves peppering the short and intermediate portions of the field where LaPorta is mostly featured. LaPorta is currently on pace to catch 102 passes which would be an NFL record for a rookie TE. The current record stands at 81 receptions and I do think LaPorta has a shot to clear that, this is a big number and a very tough matchup against a stingy secondary that has done a good job limiting the position this season.

Not sure if I will play a side but will throw a half unit down on the total as Jared Goff simply hasn't been the same QB outdoors/on the road dating to the start of last year (not that weather will be an issue tonight, but the California kid Goff clearly is now fully a dome QB) and Jordan Love has the NFL's worst completion percentage in the non-Zach Wilson genre. Both offensive lines are banged up. This is down to 45 at many books and getting the hook above that key number (24-21) is important. The SL Model has 43 points scored. Sagarin has 45.

The Lions have won and covered the last three meetings with the Packers and have covered the number eight of the last 10. Now the Lions are favored for the first time after being dogs in the last nine meetings. The Packers are 3-0 ATS covering all three as underdogs, now they’re a short dog at home. The Lions have a banged-up offensive line which is the strength of the team and one of the main reasons I sided with the Packers here. Aaron Jones and Christian Watson expected to play is another Packers positive. I’m on the Packers.

The Lions give up the most targets and most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, setting up Packers rookie Luke Musgrave to be heavily involved. He caught six of eight targets for 49 yards in Week 3. The expected return of wideout Christian Watson (hamstring) won't hurt Musgrave too much: Watson will be on a snap count and his presence outside should open up the middle of the field.

Christian Watson had an excellent rookie season. He will making his season debut against the Lions Thursday night after missing the Packers first three games. Watson led all rookie WRs in YPRR last season posting an excellent 2.20 to go along with an elite target profile. Jordan Love has played very well and will face a Lions defense that ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback. I expected Watson's line to be closer to 50 yards.

Green Bay's new QB is not afraid to scramble outside the pocket, as evidence by his nine rushes last week. His yardage has gone from 12 to 23 to 39 and I wouldn't be surprised if he eclipsed that on Thursday night depending on game flow. Either way, I would play this number up to 20 so let's lay some heavier juice than usual to hit this prop.

If there's one area the Lions have struggled with this season, it's defending the tight end. They have allowed the most receiving yards to the position, including two Falcons players (Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith) who eclipsed this number in Week 3. Musgrave has a 21.3% target share thus far and a 23.4% first read share from Jordan Love. I expect him to get 5-6 targets and over 40 yards to cash this prop for us.

The Lions have found their TJ Hockenson replacement. Clearly a tight end pipeline from Iowa City to Motown. I actually made that drive once. Less than scenic. Think the highlight was visiting the world's largest popcorn ball, which I hoped to eat. Very Griswold-esque. LaPorta rarely leaves the field and he's not some oaf as evidenced by a 45-yard TD catch Sunday. He is averaging 10.3 yards per catch and his overall yardage totals have risen each week. Both the SL Model and our AI have LaPorta finishing Over this number. Top Packers CB Jaire Alexander is expected to return from his back injury, which would likely only funnel more targets inside to LaPorta because Alexander will be focused on Amon-Ra St Brown/Josh Reynolds.

Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta ran a route on 100 percent of his snaps in Week 3. He has become the clear No. 2 target behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. LaPorta's receiving yardage total has gone from 39 in Week 1 to 63 to 84. He has caught at least five passes in every game. This number is going to rise before kickoff.

When accounting for the short week and home field advantage, my simulations make the Packers -3 home favorites against the Lions. Both teams are dealing with injuries, but I think Green Bay has a good chance of getting at least one of Aaron Jones or Christian Watson back for this game. The injuries on the Detroit offensive line are far more concerning on a short week in a hostile road environment in primetime.

Both teams are dealing with several key injuries on both sides of the ball, so the final injury report will be key here. The Packers seemed close to getting guys like Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back last week, but they may have been saved for the quick turnaround. Detroit is coming off a dominant win, but the Packers defense played great last week too. I get that Detroit performance causing the big line swing from the Packers being favored on the lookahead, but Green Bay has played well enough to not be catching points here, especially in a revenge spot after the Lions eliminated them in Week 18 last year.