New York has scored three runs or fewer in four of its last five games. The Phillies will start Jesús Luzardo, who has allowed one run or fewer in four consecutive outings, with Philadelphia winning all four games. New York has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, batting just .234 on the road. Cam Schlittler owns a 1.18 ERA on the road and has held opponents to three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. These are two of the top under teams in the majors, with more than 55% of their games finishing below the total.

Pittsburgh has been one of the most improved teams this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game. The Cubs have scored six or more runs in four of their last five games and continue to be one of the best teams in the majors for hitting the over. Matthew Boyd owns a 6.18 ERA against Pittsburgh in his career, and the Pirates lead the league in batting average against left-handed pitching at home, hitting .296. The total has also gone over in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.

Toronto has lost seven of its last eight games and now fall to 10 games under .500. The Blue Jays have also scored two runs, or less, in each of their last five games. Shane Bieber has been shaky so far this season with a 5.70 ERA and 1.73 WHIP, but off his two best starts of the season. Relief pitcher Casey Legumia will open for Tampa Bay who’s backed by a bullpen that has been improving following the All-Star break. The Rays have the better, more consistent lineup to secure a four-game sweep.

This game was a pick'em all morning until the line started to move in Chicago's favor. Left-hander Anthony Kay endured a tough stretch throughout June but has looked better this month, holding opponents to two runs or fewer in all three of his outings. The Rangers have hit left-handed pitching much better this season, while Chicago is batting just .224 against lefties on the road. Despite the line movement, the Rangers have won four of the last five meetings in Texas and five of the last six overall. Texas also leads the majors in batting average and OPS against left-handed pitching since June 1.

Since June 1, Seattle ranks last in the majors in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. Luis Castillo takes the mound tonight and has been inconsistent for much of the season, posting a 5.26 ERA at home. The Mariners have also lost four of his last five starts.The Reds were held scoreless last night and should be motivated behind Chase Burns, as they have averaged 7.18 runs over his last 11 starts. Cincinnati has also won 10 of those 11 games. Burns has yet to lose a road start, posting a 2.75 ERA away from home, and should have success against a Mariners team that continues to struggle with strikeouts.

Colorado has won four of the last five meetings against the Nationals. However, they've lost two of their last three meetings when Washington play in the Rockies. The Nationals send out Andrew Alvarez tonight, owning a 2.49 road ERA and should get some production out of an offense who’s one the best offense against left-handed pitching. This is also a fade of Kyle Freeland, who owns a 7.36 ERA, and has given up 18 earned runs over his last 22 innings.

New York’s bats seemed to come alive during its four-game winning streak going into the All-star break. Roki Sasaki, who has an 8.61 ERA and an 8.14 FIP over his last five starts, takes the bump for Los Angeles, as the Yankees are poised to keep the bats rolling. However, the first game following the break, the Yankees have lost three of their last four. Still no Aaron Judge for New York as the Dodgers have the better team overall and the more complete lineup. Gerrit Cole has started to come into his own but New York is still missing a lot of offensive production in the middle of the lineup to start the second half.

New York has won five of Nolan McClean’s last seven starts but he still owns a 5.03 home ERA. Sonny Gray has been excellent for the Red Sox 10-1 SU with a 2.61 ERA with a 3.05 road ERA as well. The market still is overvaluing New York with the highest payroll in the majors and McClean has shown he has big time strikeout stuff. The Mets have won four of five, scoring six runs, or more, in all five and Boston dealt with some flight issues getting to the Big Apple with first pitch being pushed back to 7:50 pm EST. However, the Mets haven’t seen a pitcher like Gray against Kansas City as the Red Sox also have the superior bullpen.

The Marlins, surprisingly, have the third best home record in the majors, just behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Rays. Parker Messick has pitched well on the road, owning a 2.45 ERA, but Cleveland has lot five of his last six starts. Sandy Alcantara has turned the clocks back a little, holding his opponents to two runs, or less, in his last four home starts. On the road, the Guardians are hitting a league-worst .218 and still without Jose Ramirez, hurting their offense output.

Luis Castillo has progress of late, but still owns a 4.79 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the season. He’s also allowed his opposing hitters to own a .255 average but Tampa Bay has been hitting .267 at home. Nick Martinez has been excellent at home, 5-1 SU with a 3.04 ERA and the Rays have won 13 of his 17 starts this season. Seattle is only hitting .236 and still seven games under .500 on the road. This line is a little fishy but with the better starter on the bump, offensive production and consistency, the price is to good to pass on the Rays.

Mitch Keller started out the season on fire but has struggled since the end of May. In his last seven starts, Keller has allowed at least three runs, or more, in all those starts. Bryce Elder has allowed five runs, or more, in three straight starts with the full game over being a solid look. So far, the Pirates have been one of the best lineups against righties in the month of July and have scored seven runs, or more, in three of their last four games. However, their offense has been inconsistent as Atlanta’s offense has more consistent firepower throughout the game.

Logan Webb is off his worst start of the season, allowing seven earned runs on the road to the Rockies. He has a favorable matchup against Toronto who has been hitting .230 as a team over the last 30 days. However, Dylan Cease has had a strong season on the road, 4-1 record with a 2.75 ERA. The Blue Jays have won four of his last five starts as he has allowed four runs, or less, in four of those starts as well. Webb hasn’t been as sharp as in seasons past and Toronto’s lineup has had success against Webb in their careers.

The Cubs are the better offensive team in almost every statistical category, especially over the last 30 days. Baltimore will take on lefty Matthew Boyd and they have not hit well against southpaws in 2026, a team .227 average. Shane Baz has struggled of late, allowing a combined 10 runs in his last 19 innings while also having the 6th highest walk rate in the majors. The Cubs own the highest walk rate against righties and have scored seven runs, or more, in three of Boyd’s last four starts.

Tampa Bay is 31-12 SU at home while the Yankees are 26-20 on the road this year and the game is a pick ‘em? New York has allowed at least six runs in four of their last five games and still without some big bats as their offensive production has continued to drop. The Rays send out Griffin Jax, who has allowed five earned runs in his last 16 innings, while Cam Schlittler has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. Tampa Bay, while having a four game lead in the division, isn’t built to blow teams away and the Yankees are desperate for a win.

Slade Cecconi has pitched well of late as he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Cleveland has struggled without Jose Ramirez as the team as been hitting .217 over the last 30 days. Davis Martin does pitch the best at home but has also done well on the road despite two rough outing against the Yankees and Twins. Martin has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts as well.