Missouri State is 10-6 SU at home but are currently on a seven game losing streak. This is the first time this season that they’re a home underdog and the Hilltoppers took the only meeting of the season, winning by 15 at home. Western Kentucky is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games and are finally fully healthy, as they’ve been averaging 89 points per game on their six game winning streak. The Hilltoppers are the better rebounding team and much better from the stripe, shooting over 76% as compared to Missouri State’s 66% at home with this short fishy line.
Detroit Mercy has, surprisingly, been the better team this season. The Titans are 18-9 ATS on the year as compared to Milwaukee’s 12-18 ATS. Detroit has been playing well of late, a 7-2 SU record in its last nine games, while Milwaukee is 3-6 SU in its last nine. The Titans have the rebounding edge and along with home-court edge which should help them control the tempo and Milwaukee has been very inconsistent on the defensive end for the majority of the season.
SMU needs this one to keep their tournament hopes alive. The Mustangs are 15-2 SU at home and coming off back-to-back losses and three losses in their last five overall, BJ Edwards being sidelined with an ankle injury hasn’t helped either. Miami has played very well on the road but interior defense from the Mustangs could create problems since Miami isn’t particularly strong from three. The Mustangs should control the pace as they have the more efficient offense to get a much needed win.
First round of the Sun Belt tournament in Florida. Louisiana averaged less than 66 points per game during the regular season. The Ragin’ Cajuns also don’t get to the free throw line as much, less than 16 attempts per game, lowest in the conference this season. Georgia State has shown, at times, that their offense is more capable of producing. The Panthers also have an edge with rebounding and slightly more scoring depth.
Had this game circled since Friday night and even though three other excellent cappers are on this, got to stick with my gut. Eastern Washington is the hottest in the Big Sky currently. The Eagles are in revenge, losing by three the first meeting, and Idaho is still without their staring point guard, Kolton Mitchell. Eastern Washington still has a chance to win the regular season while also being 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.The Vandals are 0-5 SU in their last five trips to Cheney. Idaho may have a slight edge on the boards but with how Eastern Washington is performing offensively, it's tough to ignore.
If there’s one team that can meet the physicality inside with the Gators, it’s Arkansas. The Razorbacks have a potent offense that can compete with anyone in the nation. Everyone talked about Florida’s guards all season and while that tandem is excelling defensively, their offensive production is still inconsistent. Arkansas has the more efficient guard play and the bigs inside to battle with the best front court in the country.
Illinois has the rest advantage and are off a tough loss on the road to the Bruins in OT. Illinois has dropped three of their last five but should be highly motivated tonight. One way to counter the Wolverines is to have big men that can shoot the three which Illinois has, as they’re one of the biggest teams in the country. This is also a clash in styles, as the Fighting Illini play at a slower tempo than Michigan is accustomed to. The Wolverines will look to wrap up the Big Ten regular season title tonight but Illinois has won nine straight in this series and the Wolverines are 3-6 ATS on the road.
Santa Clara took the first meeting of the season at home. The Gaels are out for revenge but have Gonzaga on deck. However, the Gaels have been dominate at home, 10-4 ATS with a +20.9 point differential while also holding their opponents to less than 63 points per game. Santa Clara doesn’t shoot the three well leaning more on their efficiency inside the arc, but the Gaels are one of the best in the country in defending that area. Saint Mary’s just had a poor offensive performance in the first meeting and hasn't been swept by a conference opponent since 2019.
Missouri was projected as a 10-seed before their most recent loss to the Razorbacks. Missouri now finds themselves with more work to do and little room for error. At home, the Tigers are 14-2 SU but only 7-9 ATS. However, when a home underdog, they're 3-0 SU & ATS. Tennessee has won nine of their last 10 games but also have Bama on deck Saturday. The Tigers shoot 58.4% from the field, at home, and create matchup issues with size on the perimeter. This one means more for Missouri and they’re also 5-1 ATS in the last six against the Volunteers.
Towson has a significant edge on the boards, especially offensively. The Tigers have also won seven of the last eight meetings between these two. However, they’re 2-9 SU on the road and 1-3 ATS as away favorites this season. Drexel is 10-4 SU at home and has the much better defense with limiting their opponents offensive efficiency. Both teams are near the bottom in the country from the stripe but the Dragons have been shooting over 71% from the line over their last three games and Towson has really struggled offensively on the road.
Utah is off a surprising win over the Mountaineers on the road. This line is fishy and it’s tempting to back Utah in this spot since they’re 3-1 ATS as an home underdog. If the Utes were getting more points then maybe, but UCF is fighting for an at-large bid. The Knights have the athleticism to control the boards and are the much better free throw shooting team in this pick ‘em game.
Miami Ohio took the first meeting of the season, on the road, scoring 93 points. The RedHawks are 7th in the country in points, 88.2 points per game, and at home they’re scoring 90.5. Bowling Green has an above average defense but it’s difficult to slow down this offense especially with how the RedHawks space the floor with their ball movement. In conference play, Miami Ohio has gone over 80 points, or more, in 11 of 13 conference games thus far.
The Eagles have dominated this series, winning 12 of the last 14 meetings. Sacramento State has dropped three straight and now return home where they’re 9-2 SU. The Eagles took the first meeting but that was at home. On the road, Eastern Washington is 3-13 SU and 0-2 as road favorites. The Hornets push the pace at home and will look to get out in transition, creating fouls against an Eastern Washington team that has been prone to fouls of late. The Hornets are a top-10 team from the free throw line and shoot over 43% from three at home.
New York comes into a tough game right out of the All-Star break. No Jalen Duren or Isaiah Stewart tonight for the Pistons, suspensions, which should hurt their rim protection. New York got embarrassed the first two meetings but those were on the road. Before the break, the Knicks were 8-1 SU and ATS and will be looking for some revenge. New York is currently own an NBA-best 19-9 ATS at home this season, including 5-1 ATS across their previous 6 home games. The Knicks added a Jeremy Sochan to give them more depth and help defensively. New York did not have Jose Alvarado in the first two meetings, who brings energy and scrappy, pest-like defense.
No Richie Saunders for BYU and no Koa Peat for the Wildcats. Without Saunders, where is the scoring going to come from? BYU is going to, now, lean even more heavily on AJ Dybansta and Robert Wright. Those two were able to take over the game, at home, against the Buffaloes but they don't have a defense like Arizona. The Wildcats have a top-5 defense in the country and will key in on Dybansta and Wright. Besides those two, BYU doesn’t have another player averaging in double figures.