This is a low total with a chance of snow in this one. Both teams will lead with their defenses but each team has been shown that they can put up puts on above average defenses. Houston still got to 30 points despite three turnovers and averaging 29 points over their last five while the Patriots have averaged a little over 28 points all season long. This could be a lower scoring first half and then some offensive firepower down the stretch.
Sam Darnold apparently hasn’t thrown a football since Thursday, with Drew Lock taking first team reps. This two teams know each other very well and yes, the Sportsline curse and all that jazz but here we are. As Darnold is expected to play, he may not be 100%. The 49ers are also without Fred Warner and George Kittle and San Francisco is the most public side in the Divisional Round. San Francisco has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games, including in while the Seahawks are just 2-2 ATS in their last four. San Francisco is also 6-3 ATS in their last nine against Seattle.
Josh Allen is 13-0 to the under on the road when the total is between 44 and 47 points in his career. Denver will lean more on the passing game and the one strength for this Bills defense is defending the pass. Yes, they just went on the road in Jacksonville, where Allen got banged up, and now have to travel cross country for this one. The Broncos defense should be able to make Allen uncomfortable but he can make big plays running the ball, as we all know. Denver’s defense should be able to limit James Cook, as they’re leading the league in rushing defense at home, holding their opponents to less than 89 yards.
SMU is 1-2 SU in its last three and 3-3 ATS. The Mustangs are going to want to push the pace at home where they’re 11-0 SU. However, besides of Duke, the Cavaliers are one of the most fundamentally sound teams the Mustangs have faced yet. Virginia’s offense is much improved than season’s past under Ryan Odom and their team can play any style. The Cavaliers already went on a road to Louisville and took them down as the Cardinals play a similar style. Virginia will take away transitions and make this a half-court game where they have the upper hand.
The Cougars are actually 2-0 SU in conference play on their home floor, with nice wins over Oregon State and Loyola Marymount. Washington State hasn’t beaten the Bulldogs since in 2010, but Gonzaga has been sloppy of late in conference play. Three of the last four conference games have been decided within 12 points, or less. Washington State have covered nine of the last 12 against the Bulldogs. Gonzaga is the team better in every way but the Cougars can to stay within the number. Washington State must keep the Bulldogs off the glass and they’re, currently, 4th in the country in defensive rebounding. Washington State needs to protect the ball and limit the runs by the Bulldogs.
These are two teams with contrasting styles. Arkansas State wants to play an uptempo game while the Jaguars do not. South Alabama’s defense has an average possession length of 19 seconds and will make their opponents offense work as they’re holding their opponents to less than 70 points per game on the season. The Jaguars just played a team similar to Arkansas State’s tempo in Georgia Southern, winning at home by 16 points. With the Red Wolves pace, they’re susceptible to turnovers and South Alabama create them. The Jaguars need to keep Arkansas State off the offensive glass to get to 5-1 SU at home on the year.
Something is up with Baylor, three straight losses and failing to score more than 65 points in all three. The Cowboys are off a loss but return home where they’re 11-0 SU. Baylor is also winless in conference and have to deal with a Cowboys team that play with a lot of pace and create turnovers, especially at home. Oklahoma State has the depth and better big man this season to be a frisky team in the Big 12. The Cowboys also average 89 points per game and have multiple players shooting 40 percent, or better, from three.
No Mikal Brown again for Louisville tonight. The Cardinals are also dealing with another injury to Ryan Conwell, who’s good from the perimeter is probable, and Virginia should get Jacari White back, who’s been dealing with a wrist injury. The Cardinals have recently struggled without Brown, losing two of three. Virginia’s defense should be able to slow down the Cardinals and defend the perimeter. Virginia is the more fundamentally sound team, especially on defense, with strong bigs to battle on the glass.
Pittsburgh really shouldn’t be in this position but they are. The Steelers have won 23 straight home games on MNF, going back to 1992 and Mike Tomlin is a perfect 11-0 SU. Teams that play in a dome are 1-14 SU in playoff games with the temperature under 35 degrees, 30 degrees at kick. The Texans have yet to win a road playoff game in franchise history as well. Pittsburgh gets back DK Metcalf which will open up the over receivers and the backs out the backfield. The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since January 2017 and playing on Monday Night with Aaron Rodgers seems all too perfect to end that streak.
This could be a run heavy game, as both teams lean more towards their run game. Wind is expected this afternoon in Philly which will make downfield passing and kicking more difficult. Each team also has an above average defense with the Eagles having the fifth-best scoring defense. San Francisco is allowing under 22 points per game on the season while the Eagles are holding their opponents to 18 points per game at home. Two teams with strong defenses and rushing attacks should make for a low scoring game.
Buffalo have more playoff experience in this one while also having one of the best players in the league in Josh Allen. The Jaguars have a balanced offensive attack and have been able to stop the run which will be a big test against James Cook. However, Jacksonville has more weapons on offense and while it’s tough to go against Josh Allen, the Jaguars offense has averaged over 32 points over their last three and holding their opponents to 15 points at home.
Dug McDaniel is questionable for Memphis this afternoon. The Tigers are already struggling offensively and even if McDaniel plays, he might not be 100%, as he’s the only player on the team scoring in double figures. Memphis has played a tough non-conference schedule but the Owls are the more balanced team. Memphis only has one road win, at Rice, while Florida Atlantic is 6-1 SU at home. The Owls may not be as experienced as Memphis but they’ve been the more consistent offensive team with an edge on the glass.
This is the Bears first home playoff game since the double doink. Green Bay is getting healthier but Josh Jacobs is still nursing a knee injury. The Packers should be able to limit Chicago’s passing attack but not so sure about their rushing attack. The Bears put a lot of money in their offensive line this offseason and their run game is third in the league with 144.5 yards per game. There’s a different feel around this Bears team under Ben Johnson and will be out to prove that tonight.
Neither team could stop each other in the first meeting. This time may be a little different with this being the playoffs and all but the overpass hit in seven of the Rams nine road games. Even though Los Angeles’ defense is leading the league in scoring defense, they’re only 19th in the league in passing yards allowed. The Panthers should have similar success through the air and Los Angeles can easily score 30 points themselves, just need the Panthers to help a little.
South Florida will attempt to control the pace on the road as they’ll want a fast pace game. The Golden Hurricanes are 7-0 SU at home and has the more efficient offense, especially from three and the stripe. South Florida has the better defense on paper but they struggle to defend the perimeter as the Golden Hurricanes are shooting over 41% on the season. Tulsa is also shooting almost 80% from the free throw line and will need to keep the Bulls off the offensive glass.