Bob's Past Picks
Luis Castillo is off back-to-back solid outings. However, he has been giving up a lot of sharp contact and allowed two homeruns in his last outing. Now, he faces the best team against righties thus far in Atlanta, hitting .273 with a .782 OPS. Castillo has yet to win at home this season while owning a 5.40 ERA. The Mariners have struggled offensively at home, hitting .198 with a .620 OPS.
This is Jordan Montgomery’s first home start for Arizona. He comes off a decent outing against the Cardinals, seven innings, allowing seven hits and three earned runs. Montgomery now faces Los Angeles, who has been hitting .281 with a 767 OPS against lefties thus far. The Dodgers are also currently the top hitting team in baseball on the road, batting .286 with a .804 OPS.
Orlando failed to score 90-points in both road games. They’ve only averaging 84.5 points on the road thus far. The total is also another very low total. The Magic have shot 23.6% from beyond the arc combined in Cleveland and while there might be some positive regression, they've struggled rebounding the basketball on the road.
The Thunder are 3-0 SU and ATS this season in New Orleans. Without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram has been expected to step up, but he’s been averaging 16.3 points without him and has been kept in check by Lu Dort, averaging 16.3 points. The Thunder are one of the best teams in the league defending the perimeter and Oklahoma City, as a whole, is just the better team. The Pelicans have been outscored by 31-points since game one and don’t look as in sync as Oklahoma City.
Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last 10 games. The Brewers have also dropped their last two, but currently own the second-best average against righties, hitting .274 at home with a .795 OPS. Tampa Bay is hitting .244 with a .672 OPS this season, but their bullpen has really struggled, owning the 4th worst bullpen ERA thus far. The Brewers just allowed a 30 runs to New York over their last two games but are still the better team in this matchup.
San Francisco has lost three out of the four games Keaton Winn has started. Winn is off a solid start against the sub-par Marlins but has struggled against above average lineups. New York has won eight of its last ten games and are hitting .282 with a .788 OPS on the road. Jose Quintana has pitched well on the road with solid outings against the Braves and Reds. San Francisco is only 5-5 at home this season while hitting .236 with a .624 OPS.
Los Angeles has lost its last four games. Reid Detmers went five innings, only allowing two hits and one earned run against the Orioles already this season. Albert Suarez pitched well in his debut, going five scoreless innings and faces a Los Angeles team hitting .231 with a .659 OPS against righties at home. The Orioles still have the better lineup and bullpen.
New York came out sluggish in the first quarter in game one. The Sixers won the first quarter by nine points and were the hungrier team. Philadelphia had a good game plan to throw Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo off their game offensively. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are officially listed as game-time decisions. Even if they both play, the Knicks should look to take advantage of them both not being 100% and get off to a hot start.
Jared Jones has pitched very well for Pittsburgh thus far. However, the Pirates offense has not provided him with run support. Pittsburgh has lost its last six games while the Brewers are 10-2 on the road thus far. Milwaukee has been hitting .296 with a .823 OPS on the road as compared to the Pirates .235 with a .641 OPS at home. Even if the game is close with the starters, the Pirates bullpen has struggled closing out games.
Milwaukee is 31-11 at home this season. However, they’re without Giannis and in the five times they’ve faced the Pacers during the regular season, their defense has allowed 122 points, or more, in each game. Milwaukee is not locked in defensively like they’ve been in years past. The Pacers are going to push the pace from start to finish and have scored 117 points, or more, in 55 games this season while the Bucks have allowed 117 points, or more, in 46 regular season games.
Philadelphia barely got past the Heat on Wednesday. Joel Embiid still seemed bothered from his meniscus injury and even though they have a few days off before game one he still won’t be 100%. The Knicks are the much healthier and better defensive team. New York has Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein to defend Embiid while also having the more defensive minded and grittier guard play. The Knicks are also 20-3 SU with OG Anunoby in the lineup this season.
Kyle Harrison owns a 4.50 home ERA. He now faces the top team in baseball against lefties in Arizona, hitting .314 with a .845 OPS. The Giants are improving against righties but are still only hitting .233 with a .674 OPS.
Boston won 8-1 yesterday taking advantage of Quinn Priester. The Red Sox are still without plenty of key bats and now face Mitch Keller who’s off two good outings, only allowing four earned runs in 13 innings pitched. Pittsburgh has also lost their last four games.
A.J. Puk owns a 5.91 ERA. Chicago is 5-1 at home this season and have been hitting .291 with a .860 OPS. The Cubs have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league at home, striking a total of 44 times in six games. Puk does not go deep into games and only struck out more than four batters once in his first three starts this season, but that was against an Angels team in the top-10 in strikeouts.
New York has lost its last three games. The Blue Jays send out Kevin Gausman who has allowed 11 earned runs in his last five innings. Toronto has already seen Marcus Stroman, who only allowed three hits in their first meeting. Soto, Judge, Stanton, and Torres have had success in their careers against Gausman and will look to take advantage of his struggling form to avoid to the sweep.