Since June 1, Seattle ranks last in the majors in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. Luis Castillo takes the mound tonight and has been inconsistent for much of the season, posting a 5.26 ERA at home. The Mariners have also lost four of his last five starts.The Reds were held scoreless last night and should be motivated behind Chase Burns, as they have averaged 7.18 runs over his last 11 starts. Cincinnati has also won 10 of those 11 games. Burns has yet to lose a road start, posting a 2.75 ERA away from home, and should have success against a Mariners team that continues to struggle with strikeouts.
Caesar’s. This reads as a big-time plus-spot for Chase Burns hiding in plain sight. His matchup, the Mariners, check almost every box in the strikeout department for tonight. Firstly, they are left-handed heavy (Burns has a 30% and 31% K% and whiff rate respectively against southpaws). As a team, Seattle also really struggles against power pitching, with a 30% K% and only a .672 OPS. And over the last 750 plate appearances against right handed pitching, the Mariners have really struggled with a 23.5% K% and a .598 OPS. Burns himself is over this line in 13/18 starts, including 8/9 on the road.
Chase Burns is reminiscent of what Luis Castillo was nearly 10 years ago, ironically also for the Reds. Burns owns an 11-1 record, a 2.54 ERA, a 3.16 expected ERA, a 3.40 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP. He demonstrates strong bat-missing ability, posting a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 31.7% whiff rate. His arsenal features a high-90s mph four-seam fastball (113 Stuff+) paired with a low-90s mph slider that holds opposing batters to a .182 expected batting average and produces a 37.4% chase rate. Castillo has pitched better of late, but I’m fading his season-long metrics. He has a 4.93 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, and an opponent batting average of .264, which is higher than the league average of .242. First five avoids bullpen variance.
Ward (quadriceps) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Astros
The Mariners claimed Watson off waivers from Detroit on Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Tacoma.
Rodriguez isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Marlins.
Burns (14-2) picked up the win Friday, scattering four hits over seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 victory over the Marlins. He struck out eight without walking a batter.
Pagan pitched a perfect ninth inning Friday to record his 15th save of the season in a 1-0 win over the Marlins. He didn't strike out a batter.
Kirby did not factor into the decision in Friday's 10-7 extra-inning loss to the Astros, allowing five runs on eight hits and three walks with two strikeouts over 4.2 innings.
Santillan (oblique) did not allow a hit or walk while striking out two over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday.
Munoz (5-5) blew the save and took the loss in Friday's 10-7 extra-inning loss to the Astros, allowing five runs (four earned) on four hits and no walks with one strikeout while recording two outs in the 10th inning.
The Mariners selected Rodden's contract from Triple-A Tacoma on Friday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
Ward (quad) isn't in the lineup for Friday's game against Houston.
