The Twins are currently +135 home underdogs, showing an implied win probability of just 42.55%. However, my model makes Minnesota a -118 favorite, projecting a true win probability of 54.13%. This edge is mainly driven by Zebby Matthews’ superior command compared to Eric Lauer, who has recorded only 40 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. Since June 1st, the Dodgers’ bullpen has struggled, posting a 7.51 ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins have excelled against Lauer, hitting .339 with a .668 xSLG in 70 plate appearances. Notably, the Dodgers have never faced Matthews. Minnesota enters this matchup in excellent form, having won seven of its last ten games and six of its last seven. For added security, I recommend backing the Twins +1.5 on the run line.

Mookie Betts’ modest .203 average and 7 home runs are partly due to missing a month with an oblique strain, but his advanced stats indicate improvement is on the horizon. Betts ranks in the 98th percentile for Sweet-Spot% (44.2%), showing he’s making quality contact. On Friday, he’ll face Trey Gibson, a pitcher who struggles to generate strikeouts with just 12 in 21 innings. It’s also Mookie Betts “Game 7 Double Play” Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium. Betts has a history of delivering on promo nights—he crushed a memorable homer on his first Dodgers Bobblehead Night in 2021 and collected multiple hits in two other giveaway games. Given both the favorable matchup and the special occasion, we have to play this at the current number.

With temperatures in the upper 80s along with 19 MPH winds out to center field, conditions are set to add 12–18 feet to fly balls—likely turning warning-track outs into home runs. This significant atmospheric boost poses a particular problem for Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola, who enters the matchup with an inflated 5.86 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Nola’s dependence on his knuckle-curve and sinker has faltered, leading to a Location+ of 103 that isn’t enough to keep batters off his four-seam fastball, which is being struck at an average exit velocity of 91.8 mph. The Mets counter with Sean Manaea (4.78 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), primarily a reliever with a 35.7% groundball rate. This could further tax the Mets’ overworked bullpen against Philadelphia’s 12th-ranked home offense.

Parker Messick has allowed three or more runs only twice this season, and after each of those outings, he rebounded by holding opponents to just one earned run. In one of those games, he surrendered four earned runs. Messick’s advanced profile is highlighted by an elite 108 Location+ rating and an impressive 24% strikeout-to-walk rate, supporting a stable 3.15 expected ERA. His Statcast metrics are notably strong. In contrast, Carlos Rodon’s 2.88 ERA appears poised for regression, as his xERA is nearly a full run higher at 3.95. The Guardians recently saw Rodon just last Thursday in a loss, which could work to their advantage. Meanwhile, the Yankees have yet to face Messick—no player on their roster has ever had an at-bat against him.

Griffin Canning has struggled, to say the least, with a 7.16 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and an average of just 4.2 innings per start. This short longevity places an immense burden on a Padres bullpen that has struggled with recent workload volume. Canning's advanced pitching metrics reveal a compromised Stuff+ profile of 85. Nolan McLean has a strong Stuff+ of 115 on his high-spin fastball-slider combination, yielding an elite 10.4 K/9 strikeout rate. McLean’s high strikeout-to-walk percentage of 18% should easily neutralize a Padres offense that has struggled to generate power. San Diego have never faced McLean, while the Mets are batting .319 with an xSLG of .552 in 49 plate appearances against Canning. I like the Mets in this spot.

Keider Montero owns a 4.93 SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) and a modest 6.6% swinging-strike rate. Notably, Montero surrenders an alarming 56.1% fly-ball rate. He has been extremely lucky to allow only 1.09 home runs per nine innings, as his home-run-to-fly-ball rate of 7.2% is well below his two-year baseline of 16.1%. His main strength is limiting walks, which does support this prop. Mike Trout displays a pronounced platoon preference, hitting 10 of his 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers. Trout has also been far more dangerous on the road, with a remarkable .602 slugging away from home versus .379 in Anaheim. Batting second on the road almost ensures Trout 4–5 plate appearances, and the Tigers' bullpen is nothing special.

Jacob Misiorowski has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts (18.1 IP), even while dealing with cramps. Ben Brown, after starting in the bullpen, has looked dominant in his previous two outings and should reach 80 pitches in his third start. Both pitchers have limited hitters: Misiorowski (.242 xWOBA in 56 ABs vs. the Cubs lineup) and Brown (.245 xWOBA in 58 ABs vs. the Brewers lineup). The Cubs, once on a 10-game win streak, have now lost three straight and are 2-9 in their last 11 games. Alex Bregman (third batter) and Ian Happ (fourth) went a combined 0-for-8 last night. I like the home team in this system spot with temps falling and winds subsiding throughout the game.

Cam Schlittler has established himself as a Cy Young contender, posting an impressive 5-1 record, 1.52 ERA, and 0.87 WHIP. He excels at limiting both hits (5.8 H/9) and home runs (0.19 HR/9), putting him among the league’s elite. According to ArsenalFX, Schlittler’s cutter-slider pairing is currently the toughest "tunnel" for right-handed hitters to decipher—a major challenge for a Brewers lineup that relies heavily on Jackson Chourio, Andrew Vaughn, Garrett Mitchell, and William Contreras. The Brewers counter with Kyle Harrison, a talented left-hander posting a 2.12 ERA (xERA 3.36). However, the Yankees are thriving against southpaws this season, holding a 9-4 record and the second-best OPS in baseball. The Yankees’ lineup struggled in yesterday’s 3-for-30, 14-strikeout shutout loss. Expect a motivated response on the road.

Sal Stewart has an excellent chance to surpass 1.5 total bases and hit a home run, given his clear matchup advantage against Mike Burrows. Burrows has a troubling 1.91 HR/9 allowed and a 41.9% fly-ball rate. Stewart reinforces his outlook with elite power metrics, including a .522 xSLG (90th percentile) and a 94th percentile barrel rate. Great American Ball Park’s 1.28 HR factor—the second highest in the NL—further boosts his potential. Additionally, the Astros' bullpen ranks last in ERA, hits, and home runs allowed. Stewart seeks to homer in back-to-back games for the third time this season.

Sal Stewart has an excellent chance to surpass 1.5 total bases and hit a home run, given his clear matchup advantage against Mike Burrows. Burrows has a troubling 1.91 HR/9 allowed and a 41.9% fly-ball rate. Stewart reinforces his outlook with elite power metrics, including a .522 xSLG (90th percentile) and a 94th percentile barrel rate. Great American Ball Park’s 1.28 HR factor—the second highest in the NL—further boosts his potential. Additionally, the Astros' bullpen ranks last in ERA, hits, and home runs allowed. Stewart seeks to homer in back-to-back games for the third time this season.

Max Scherzer is showing clear signs of decline, posting a 7.16 ERA, supported by troubling underlying metrics: fewer strikeouts, diminished fastball velocity, and a high 2.2 HR/9. Cleveland’s offense is average overall but stands out for its ability to get on base and rack up doubles. Gavin Williams’ sparkling 2.12 ERA is deceptive; his advanced stats (3.92 FIP, 4.11 SIERA) point to considerable luck, and he issues 5.2 walks per nine innings. Toronto hitters have excelled against Williams, with a .324 batting average and a 1.116 OPS. Both bullpens are liabilities: the Guardians have plummeted from 3rd last year to 24th in ERA, while the Blue Jays are not much better at 23rd. With the roof closed, Rogers Centre turns into a hitter's park.

Zack Littell has shown significant statistical vulnerability; although he sports a 4.20 ERA, his alarming 7.16 FIP—driven by surrendering five home runs in just 15 innings—is a major concern. He’s up against a Nationals lineup that’s second in MLB with 5.6 runs per game and suffers from the league’s worst bullpen ERA. This combination helps explain why Washington is 13-6 to the Over. Logan Webb, meanwhile, has historically struggled away from Oracle Park, posting a career road ERA (3.98) more than a full run above his home mark (2.90). Weather conditions at first pitch—79°F and 38% humidity—will lower air density and enhance ball carry. Coupled with a park factor that boosts slugging by 34%, I anticipate at least eight runs scored here on Friday night.

Progressive Field is currently yielding a +9% home run factor. Crucially, the park features a shorter right-field fence, which is the primary target for a left-handed pull-power hitter like Chase DeLauter. The forecast for 6:10 PM ET indicates 63°F with winds at 14 mph. Winds blowing out to RF in a small park environment significantly increase the probability of "borderline" fly balls clearing the wall. The market price of +470 implies a 17.5% probability of a home run. DeLauter has homered in 25% of his games this season and is facing a pitcher with a substantial 1.4 HR/9 rate in a park that favors LHB power; the mathematical edge is significant. Notably, he hasn’t homered since April 1st. Positive regression is expected.

Parker Messick has become a premier left-handed starter, posting a 0.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 17.2 innings in his first three outings. Opposing hitters are batting .190 against him, and his data show it's sustainable. Baltimore ranks 26th in road scoring and now meets Messick, whose strong groundball rate (48.9%) and elite chase percentage (91st percentile) play well at pitcher-friendly Progressive Field. Baltimore counters with Shane Baz, who has struggled since the start of 2025, posting a 4.50 ERA, 4.84 FIP, an increased hard-hit rate, and 1.4 HR/9—factors that raise concerns. Adding to Baltimore’s challenge, the Orioles have never faced Messick, giving him a potential edge. Furthermore, Baltimore is dealing with numerous injuries, while Cleveland is 3-0 in series openers following a loss.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed three earned runs and did not get out of the first inning during a start in Milwaukee on July 7th. The Brewers can draw confidence from their previous success, even if the sample size is small. Freddy Peralta has limited the Dodgers to a .293 xwOBA in 154 plate appearances. He has been more effective at home with a 1.77 ERA compared to a 3.71 ERA on the road this season. I like the Brewers to win at plus money.