Shohei Ohtani has hit two home runs off Freddy Peralta in nine career at-bats. However, he has not hit a home run in his last six games after smashing two dingers against the Reds in the Wild Card round. Hopefully, Peralta will challenge him rather than issuing a free pass.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed three earned runs and did not get out of the first inning during a start in Milwaukee on July 7th. The Brewers can draw confidence from their previous success, even if the sample size is small. Freddy Peralta has limited the Dodgers to a .293 xwOBA in 154 plate appearances. He has been more effective at home with a 1.77 ERA compared to a 3.71 ERA on the road this season. I like the Brewers to win at plus money.
Blake Snell has made just one career pitching appearance in Milwaukee, specifically at Miller Park (now known as American Family Field). That game occurred on May 24, 2021, while he was with the Padres. In that outing, Snell pitched 3.2 innings and allowed five earned runs, which included two home runs. That's not a predictive stat, but it's been over four years since he's pitched there. The Brewers have not named a starting pitcher as of noon ET, making it challenging for the Dodgers to know whom to study on tape. Take the Brew Crew on the run line.
This game represents a potential redemption opportunity for Tarik Skubal, who struggled in last year's Game 5 against Cleveland, allowing five runs in a crushing defeat. The Mariners have solved Tarik Skubal three times in four tries this season, including twice at home. His 5.91 ERA is the highest against any team with a minimum of 10 innings pitched this season. Seattle has thrived at T-Mobile Park with a 100-62 record over the past two seasons - the third-best home mark in baseball. George Kirby has always pitched better at home (3.10 ERA) than on the road (4.14) over his four-year career. Skubal is a "beast" who has logged 209.3 IP this season. Give me the home underdog in this winner-take-all affair.
This is the same pitching matchup from last Tuesday when Gavin Williams and the Guardians defeated Tarik Skubal and the Tigers. Skubal has a hard-hit rate of 33% (95th percentile) with an average exit velocity of 86.1 mph (97th percentile). In contrast, Williams has a hard-hit rate of 44.3% (19th percentile) and an average exit velocity of 90.4 mph (19th percentile). A significant factor often overlooked is Cleveland's bullpen situation. Despite having an excellent relief corps, they have been without closer Emmanuel Clase since July, and Nic Enright remains unavailable. After their division lead collapse, Detroit has everything to prove and enters the series with a 33-19 record in Game One. Skubal aims to end the team's three-game losing streak when he's on the mound.
Shota Imanaga has a 4.01 ERA with a .250 opponent batting average in September, which is higher than his overall .211 average against for the season. He’s getting fatigued, and the Cubs need him for the playoffs. The Mets will start Nolan McLean, who has allowed two ER or fewer in all seven starts this season. He’s holding opponents to a scant .195 batting average in 42.2 IP. Chicago has never seen McLean, while the Mets have a .388 xwOBA in 29 plate appearances against Imanaga. New York’s three and four batters went 0-8 combined in yesterday’s non-effort as the Mets could muster up just four hits. I like the road team in this spot.
Cam Schlittler is sporting a 3.05 ERA against Minnesota's Zebby Matthews, who has a 5.06 ERA. Matthews has allowed a .308 batting average and .458 xwOBA against New York in 28 plate appearances. The Yankees hit three home runs off him earlier this season. Schlittler has excelled since July, with 63 strikeouts in 56 innings and a remarkable .169 xwOBA against Minnesota in 15 plate appearances. His advanced metrics highlight his elite performance, ranking in the 84th percentile in ERA and boasting a 13.6% swinging strike rate in the 85th percentile. The Yankees had a tough time in Monday's shutout loss, going 2-for-28, with batters three through five contributing a combined 0-for-12. I like the Yankees in this spot.
Kevin Gausman has limited the current Astros roster to an xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) of just .249. This elite contact suppression represents a 78-point advantage over Cristian Javier's alarming .343 xwOBA allowed the current Blue Jays hitters. Gausman's 41.0% strikeout rate against Houston's current roster demonstrates his ability to overpower the Astros consistently. In Wednesday's loss, the Blue Jays' three through five batters went a combined 0-for-12 at the plate. I like the home team.
Manny Machado has 17 hits in 51 at-bats against Kyle Freeland, including seven doubles and no home runs. Manny has dominated Colorado pitching this season, with an impressive .511 slugging percentage. Machado hit a home run on Wednesday and has hit back-to-back home runs in consecutive games on three different occasions this season. Colorado is well-known as a favorable hitting environment, and Machado has recorded 12 home runs in 43 games against left-handed pitchers. When Kyle Freeland gets pulled from the game, that's okay. The Rockies' bullpen has allowed 88 home runs this year, the highest total in MLB.
Luis Garcia returns from a two-year absence. His successful rehab progression, including a 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 30 innings (38 K's) in the minors, demonstrates his readiness for major league action. The emotional boost from Garcia's comeback and the excitement of pitching at home for the first time since May 2023 seem beneficial. The Angels will start Yusei Kikuchi on the mound. Since July, Kikuchi has posted a 5.18 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 57.1 innings. The Astros' third (Altuve) and fourth (Correa) batters went 0-for-8 in Sunday's loss. Houston has a .909 OPS against Kikuchi over 146 at-bats, and Correa is batting .520 in 25 at-bats. I like Houston in this matchup.
Brady Singer has demonstrated outstanding performance at home, achieving a 3.08 ERA in 13 home starts with a 6-4 record. At Great American Ball Park, Singer has allowed just 53 hits across 73 innings while striking out 77 batters. Andre Pallante has struggled particularly recently, posting an ugly 9.82 ERA in August with opponents batting .358 against him. His second-half struggles are evident with a 7.91 ERA compared to 4.49 in the first half. After a loss, the Reds are 14-8 in game three of a series.
Freddie Freeman's advanced metrics remain elite with a .501 slugging percentage and .874 OPS, while his 10.4% barrel rate and 45.8% hard-hit rate indicate continued power production capability. He has hit right-handers extremely hard and owns a .600 slugging percentage against Zac Gallen, spanning 25 at-bats. Freeman is back in the lineup after missing Wednesday due to a stinger. He is ready to return from a two-day break and has a batting average of .330 following a day off.
Vinnie Pasquantino has 24 RBI in 34 career games against Detroit, his most against any opponent, including a strong recent performance with a .333 average, two home runs, and 7 RBI in his last seven games vs Detroit. He saw Chris Paddack six days ago and collected a double in four at-bats. Vinnie gets back on track tonight after three straight games without an extra-base hit.
Riley Greene has excellent potential to exceed 1.5 total bases due to his impressive power metrics, strong recent performance, and success against Oakland, where he has a .353 career batting average. As a hitter near the top of the order, Greene is expected to have 4 to 5 plate appearances on the road. With a 30.6% home run rate on fly balls and facing an A's bullpen that has allowed the fifth-most hits this season, he needs one solid swing to succeed with this prop. Sutter Health Park ranks second in runs, third in hits, third in doubles, and eighth in home runs at Baseball Savant, making it a favorable environment for hitters.
Carlos Rodon's matchup against the Boston Red Sox seems favorable, especially considering the Red Sox's struggles against left-handed pitching since the All-Star break, where they have posted just a .675 OPS. Interestingly, the last time the Red Sox swept the Yankees in a four-game series at Yankee Stadium was July 7-9, 1939. Dustin May has an ERA of 6.28 on the road, and his overall hard-hit rate of 45.3% places him in the 15th percentile. I believe he will face challenges against the Yankees' lineup.