The Pirates were blanked on Wednesday, but prior to that had scored at least five runs in nine of 10 games. They can do so again here vs. Bryce Elder, who owns a 7.50 ERA his last seven starts and all season has been worse on the road and in day games. Pirates starter Mitch Keller has a 7.50 in his last seven as well, but is 5-0 with 3.26 ERA in matinees. The Pirates are the No. 3-hitting team in day games and their .891 OPS vs. right-handers the last two weeks ranks No. 3. The Braves are 28th in day-game hitting.

Mitch Keller started out the season on fire but has struggled since the end of May. In his last seven starts, Keller has allowed at least three runs, or more, in all those starts. Bryce Elder has allowed five runs, or more, in three straight starts with the full game over being a solid look. So far, the Pirates have been one of the best lineups against righties in the month of July and have scored seven runs, or more, in three of their last four games. However, their offense has been inconsistent as Atlanta’s offense has more consistent firepower throughout the game.

The Braves face off with Mitch Keller, who has allowed a .283 average and 10 home runs in 61 innings against lefties this year. Atlanta's main offensive threats are on the left side with Olson, Baldwin, Harris, and Albies all near the top of the order, while the Pirates main threats are also left handed batters. Bryce Elder was solid last time against this Pirates lineup because he can neutralize lefties far better than righties (.206 avg vs. .300 avg) but he's been much worse of late so we'll pump the breaks on hyping him up too much. Still, the Braves team total over 4.5 runs is a 1u play for me, but the ML is also 10-15 cents cheaper than it should be.