If there's an area that can be exploited in the Philadelphia defense, it's the middle of the field. And Luther Burden III is Chicago's best chance of finding success in that matchup. Last week, two Commanders slot receivers, Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams both had at least 40 yards receiving and a score. I would be surprised if Bears third string quarterback Case Keenum takes many shots down the field, so using Burden as a safety blanket makes the most sense. I think Burden also tops 40 yards as the Bears attempt to have a semblance of a passing attack on Monday night.

We likely will have game flow in our favor for the Jets – the Lions at home should be able to do whatever they want on offense. And that means it's time for Geno Smith to chuck it and duck it in the second half. New York's quarterback threw for 215 and 247 yards in low-scoring, ugly games over the first two weeks. Imagine what he can do in a shootout. Detroit’s defense isn't great, primarily the secondary. The Lions are allowing the eighth-highest passing success rate and the 11th-most EPA per dropback. This might be a ladder play for me as I project 55 total points in the game. Could 300+ yards be in play for Geno on Sunday?

I'm laying the juice with my favorite kicker to bet, Ka'imi Fairbairn. He didn't hit my Week 1 points prop because the game vs. Buffalo turned into a shootout but bounced back with two field goals in Week 2. I look for a lower-paced game in Indianapolis on Sunday and at least three field goal attempts from the veteran kicker. Fairbairn made at least two field goals in 15 of 17 games last season and is 1 for 2 in 2026. The Colts have also already surrendered six made 3-pointers in two weeks. Expect plenty of volume for Houston's special teams weapon in what should be a must-win game for Houston.

Is this a trap line? Is it too good to be true? Parker Washington has averaged six catches and 106 yards receiving per game since Week 16 of last season. He's become a must start in fantasy football and a must bet in real life. Washington, by lining up in the slot, should avoid star cornerback Christian Gonzalez of New England. I would be surprised if he wasn't peppered with targets by Trevor Lawrence and if the Jaguars' new #1 WR fell below 80 yards on Sunday.

It's time for Kansas City to ease Kenneth Walker III's workload. Even Andy Reid said the same this week. Sure, Walker has been over this carries number in his last five games dating back to last year's playoffs, including 47 rushes this season. But now Kansas City is an 11-point road favorite against the worst team in the league and I highly doubt they'll be in serious danger of losing in Week 3. Look for rookie Emmett Johnson to see 10+ carries and Walker to be closer to 15 than 20 rushing attempts. If the Chiefs are to make a run in the postseason once again, there is no need to wear down their star free agent pickup this early in the season.

As a Packers fan, I'm already prepared for a season of disappointment. The offensive line is in shambles and the team doesn't have a halfway-proven NFL running back on its active roster. But it does have a couple of good wide receivers, including second year deep threat Matthew Golden. The 2025 first round pick has 18 targets through two weeks, one less than Christian Watson, and is over this yardage total in his last three games dating back to the Wild Card Game in January vs. Chicago. Against a depleted Falcons secondary and with fellow wide receiver Jayden Reed out for a long while, I think both Golden and Watson are great bets to top 75 yards receiving on Thursday night.

This is all about game flow. If you think the Giants keep the game close, then avoid this bet. But to me, this is a bounce back spot for the Rams so I believe Corum gets a long look in the second half. Last week, Corum got six first half carries vs. Kyren Williams' nine. Overall, Williams led the running back rushing attempts only slightly, 11-10. Last year, Corum had 11 or more carries in seven of the team's final 11 regular season games. The Rams won by at least a TD in six of those games. I have it 31-20 Los Angeles on Monday night and see Corum getting closer to 15 than ten attempts on Monday night.

In the last two seasons, Brandon Aubrey’s kicking points vs. Washington are as follows: 9-13-14-12. He's had 15 combined field goal attempts in those four games against Dan Quinn’s teams. It was truly bizarre to see Dallas' kicker so quiet in Week 1 after he attempted 89 field goals over the last two seasons. I'm expecting a Dallas offensive explosion in their home opener and Aubrey to have plenty of work vs. Washington once again.

Here’s a prop with a 100% regular season hit rate dating back to 2025. Since he came to Jacksonville last November, Meyers has posted 39 or more yards in all ten regular season games. Last week's 2-40 line continued the streak. Against the Broncos last December, Meyers posted a 4-45 line on eight targets. I expect Jacksonville to be down in the fourth quarter and throwing so game script should be in our favor. A similar line to last year's performance should be in order for the Jaguars' #3 wide receiver.

It's time for Rico Dowdle to show that he is worthy of making more than $6 million per season. In Week 1, Dowdle had a 58% snap rate and was the clear RB1 over Jaylen Warren. But his 8 carries for 15 yards was uninspiring at best. Even still, this line is a severe overreaction to that performance. In Week 1, Seattle’s running backs had 20 carries for 84 yards, more than four yards per carry vs. the Patriots. Especially with rain in the forecast, I think the Steelers lean on their rushing attack to try and win the possession battle. I see Dowdle getting 10-12 carries minimum and topping 40 yards on the ground.

I would think that Baker Mayfield absolutely wants to stick it to his old team on Sunday, especially since Cleveland is now stuck with Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback. Last week, Trevor Lawrence threw for 245 yards on only 23 attempts vs. Cleveland – the third-most yards per attempt, the highest passer rating, and the highest passing success rate. I underestimated how bad the Browns defense really is in the post Myles Garrett-era. I think Mayfield goes for 225+ as the Bucs do whatever they want offensively in Week 2.

In six career NFL starts, Malik Willis has rushed for at least 40 yards in five of them, excluding his first outing in 2022 vs. Houston. Last year for the Packers, Willis relieved an injured Jordan Love in Chicago and rushed 10 times for 44 yards. The following week vs. Baltimore, he scrambled nine times for 60 yards. While the Raiders defense has been upgraded from last season, Miami’s receiving core has not (to say the least). Look for Willis to tuck it and run at least six times which seems to be the floor in his previous starts and I think he comes closer to 50 yards rushing than 40.

I’m buying the Los Angeles offense with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, the former Dolphins coach. I believe QB Justin Herbert has a monster season and they get a layup in Week 1 with arguably the worst defense in the NFL. Arizona will have its moments with new coach Mike LaFleur but I expect them to be a frequent Over line special in 2026. Their offense will be interesting and their defense an embarrassment. Chargers 37, Cardinals 21.

Houston has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Josh Allen and Buffalo, each by a single possession. Expect the same in Week 1 between two of the AFC’s top contenders. The Texans have the best defense in the NFL and should stifle Allen, while on offense, Houston QB C.J. Stroud needs to make amends for a dreadful finish to last season. Dating back to 2020, each of Houston’s three victories over Buffalo has seen them score 22 or 23 points, while Buffalo has scored 19 or 20 in each of those games. History has a funny way of repeating itself. Texans 23, Bills 20.

In each of the last two season, the Texans have scored 23 points in home games against the Bills. In both of those games, Ka'imi Fairbairn has made three field goals and two extra points (11 total points in each game). Last year, Houston gave him 48 field goal attempts in only 15 games. The Texans are masters of not finishing drives with C.J. Stroud at the helm and their kicker is one of the best in the league. I'll be betting his props often once again this season including in Week 1.