CaesarтАЩs (-106). Cade Otton is coming off a pedestrian performance in a terrific matchup against the Bengals. Today, heтАЩll have a much tougher spot against the Browns. OttonтАЩs average depth of target in Week 1 was 4.6 yards, similar to the 5.1 he accrued last season. Only 13% of his targets last season traveled at least 10 air yards. The Browns are stingy against tight ends, ranking inside the top 10 of yards per catch, yards per target and DVOA against the position in 2025. Baker Mayfield will have his full stable of receivers today, with Jalen McMillan expected to be back in action as well. Plus, the Bucs should be in a positive gamescript against the lowly Browns.
Last week I was anxious to see how much Emeka Egbuka was involved after missing time in Preseason with an injury. But he looked great and was very involved, with an 88% route share, 21% target share, and 25% first-read target share. He caught five passes for 63 yards. Now his receiving line is just at 52.5 as the true WR1 for the Bucs? I'm jumping on this line and will likely ladder it to 60+ for plus money.
Consider this one of several ways you can fade the Browns. I expect the Browns front seven to be ok in this game, but Bucky should get to this numer on volume alone (15+ carries is the expectation). Last week the rushing attack was phased out thanks to a very negative game script, but early in the game we witnessed Bucky getting his anticipated lead back role and his efficiency. Expect four quarters of the rushing attack this week with Bucky getting most of the work.
I would think that Baker Mayfield absolutely wants to stick it to his old team on Sunday, especially since Cleveland is now stuck with Deshaun Watson as their starting quarterback. Last week, Trevor Lawrence threw for 245 yards on only 23 attempts vs. Cleveland тАУ the third-most yards per attempt, the highest passer rating, and the highest passing success rate. I underestimated how bad the Browns defense really is in the post Myles Garrett-era. I think Mayfield goes for 225+ as the Bucs do whatever they want offensively in Week 2.
The Buccaneers fumbled their way to a loss last week, and with better ball security, they might have beaten Cincy. This should be a much easier game to get into the win column. The Browns were abysmal on both sides of the ball in Week 1 save for a meaningless deep TD to Denzel Boston. The Bucs' defensive front should give the Cleveland O-line fits, and the Bucs' offensive front can handle this version of the Browns defense. The Jags were outside the number by the end of the first quarter last week, and while it might take the Bucs until halftime to get there, I still see this as a double-digit win.
Hurst failed to catch his lone target in Sunday's 16-0 win over the Falcons.
Tucker didn't play any offensive snaps in Sunday's 16-0 win over the Falcons.
Szmyt made both of his field-goal attempts in the Browns' 27-6 loss to the Steelers on Sunday.
Otton wasn't targeted in Sunday's 16-0 win over the Falcons.
McLaughlin made all three field-goal attempts and his only extra-point try in Sunday's 16-0 win over the Falcons.
Jeudy did not catch his lone target Sunday in Cleveland's 27-6 loss to Pittsburgh.
Head coach Todd Bowles said that Diaby (knee) has been diagnosed with an MCL sprain and won't be available for Sunday's game against the Bears, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Bond went without a target while taking the field for eight of the Browns' 70 snaps on offense in Sunday's 27-6 loss to the Steelers. He returned one kickoff for 26 yards.
Corley went untargeted while playing 13 of 70 snaps on offense Sunday in the Browns' 27-6 loss to the Steelers. He returned one kickoff for 26 yards.
Wallace recorded a three-yard reception on his lone target in Sunday's 27-6 loss to the Steelers.
