I'm still stinging after watching what Michigan did to my Arizona team on Saturday night. The 2025-26 Wolverines just might be an all-timer of a team. But UConn's Dan Hurley is the best coach in college basketball and is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet Sixteen onward. I just can't be confident in a spread pick on the game. Instead, I'll be investing in the total and likely going against the public. I know that Michigan has scored 90+ points in all five tournament games, but I believe Dan Hurley finds a way to scheme a much slower pace to this contest. Also, dating back to 2017, National Championship unders are 6-2. Michigan 74, UConn 67.
Dan Hurley is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, but this is not a good matchup for UConn. The Huskies' top player in this run, 6-11 Tarris Reed Jr., will face a towering Michigan front line. The Wolverines have been so good in the NCAA Tournament (five wins by 13-plus points), they are reminding people of Hurley's 2024 team that won every March Madness game by at least 14 points. Look for Elliot Cadeau to play a lot better than he did in the semis (5 for 17, six turnovers) as Michigan pulls away late and covers its fifth straight.
UConn’s resilience through injuries and deficits throughout this tournament echoes the call of Dan Hurley for his teams to show the heart of a champion in the postseason. Hurley is also 9-0 against the spread the last four years in the NCAA Tournament on a short turnaround spot (less than 48 hours to prep). The Huskies are going to face a tough foe in Michigan’s front line, but they are coming into the game after facing another team with size in Illinois and passing the test. In fact, UConn’s tournament run has included three single-digit seeds from the Big Ten with Michigan being the fourth, and the Huskies had a strong showing defensively against all three teams.
Put yourself in Coach Dan Hurley's position. He's seen what's happening in the tournament with Michigan scoring 90 points or more against its opponents. He has to strategize for it, and I think he's going to figure out a way not to play their game. His team allowed an average of 65.1 points per game this season. He should be prepared and ready to execute. Michigan was not covering heading into the Tournament and scored 72 or less against Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. Hold them down; it can be done. Duke beat them 68-63 in February. Hurley carries championships as badges on his sports coat. Michigan under 75.5, and Connecticut also has a chance to win.
Connecticut's path through the NCAA tournament went through the Big Ten Conference with victories over UCLA, Michigan State, and Illinois. Now it's Michigan's turn. In all those instances, they kept the game low scoring, and all three stayed under the total. They also beat Duke along the way. This is when coach Dan Hurley is at his absolute best, and his ego will not allow anything less in prime time. Connecticut plus the points.
For underdog Tulsa to win, it likely will put apply a govenor to its usual quick pace. Dictating tempo against run-'n'-gun Auburn by slowing it down slightly places the Golden Hurricane in the best position to steal an NIT title. The Tigers have landed well under this figure in three of four tournament games, the exception being outmanned Seattle. The overall season stats for the finalists might suggest an Over, but the hunch is that Tulsa hopes to make it easier on the scorekeeper.
I can't let my Final Four pick of Arizona be the last college basketball pick I make on the site this season. So let's look at the total in this Crown Championship Game. Oklahoma games have been over this total in 34 of 36 games in 2025-26. They have averaged nearly 83 points per game and surrendered 77. On the other side, West Virginia games are usually painful to watch but both in this tournament have ended in the upper-150s. Look for the Sooners to dictate the pace with the Mountaineers having to play catch up. I think this ends up in the 140s at minimum.
West Virginia operated as among the slowest offenses in Division I. Then came Saturday's semifinals, when the Mountaineers' game against Creighton resulted in 157 points -- about 20 above the total. This matchup has generated a similar number even though Oklahoma goes quicker than the median team. Its games average 160, in part because 43 percent of the Sooners' field goal attempts are threes. Their defense can be shoddy, so West Virginia could be in more attack mode than usual. The championship game marks the teams' third appearance in the venus, so there is no unfamiliarity with the rims and shot angles.
West Virginia has found different sources of offense in the College Basketball Crown, including 6-7 freshman DJ Thomas. When the Mountaineers don’t have to rely exclusively on Honor Huff, they’re tough to beat. Oklahoma has the superior scorers but West Virginia should slow the game down. Ross Hodge’s team is still riding the momentum of an unlikely comeback vs. Stanford and can take this to the wire.
The Wildcats are incredibly deep, with seven players averaging at least 8.6 points a game. It’s splitting hairs with these two teams, but if I were to find one edge, it’s that Arizona is deeper and has played better and more consistently than Michigan. It’s a thin line, as the two teams have a combined five losses by 23 total points, with the lone difference being that Arizona won the Big 12 tourney, and Michigan lost in the Big Ten final. Arizona's depth is the small edge that wins the game.
Do you really think I was going to submit a pick against my beloved Wildcats? Sadly, I won't be in Indianapolis at the Final Four but maybe that's a good thing for their chances. The last time I saw Arizona play in person was in February against Texas Tech, a 78-75 OT loss. Since then, the Wildcats are 13-0 including a win over Purdue in the Elite Eight. That's the same Boilermakers team who all-but-dominated Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game. Ignore the Tommy Lloyd-to-UNC rumors, this Wildcats team is focused and ready for their moment. Either way, the winner of this epic matchup will go on to win the National Championship. And that will be Arizona by the thinnest of margins, 82-79.
These are the two best teams remaining in the tournament, and the winner of this game will likely claim the National Championship. Both teams match up well, but I believe the Wildcats have more depth, especially after Michigan lost L.J. Cason to an ACL injury just before the postseason. While Michigan hasn’t needed him so far, his 40% three-point shooting could be missed in this matchup. Arizona doesn’t attempt many threes, but they are capable shooters and may take more shots from beyond the arc in this game. After analyzing both teams throughout the season, my betting model favors Arizona by 2.5 points—a prediction I strongly endorse. Arizona’s decisive edge on the boards was the pivotal factor that convinced me to side with them.
Arizona scored at will inside the arc throughout its Sweet 16 matchup with Arkansas and after halftime of the Elite Eight game against Purdue. The Wildcats don’t like to take a lot of threes; that could prove problematic against the nation’s No. 1 defense. Michigan has the size and connectivity to bother Arizona’s normally unstoppable 2-point offense. The Wolverines hold opponents to 44 percent inside the arc. In a titanic matchup of peaking teams, I like Michigan to execute late, win and cover.
I think we are going to see a hot start in the second game of the night, as Michigan and Arizona can both get out in transition and can crash the glass to find easy points early. Even if three-pointers aren't falling, there are enough matchup opportunities to exploit on both sides to see some points scored early as each coach shows their schematic hand. The scoring could slow after halftime, bringing the full game total into question, but I think the track meet that's projected does play out for the first 20 minutes.
Michigan shot 51.1% from the field while holding opponents to 38.4%, which ranks No. 1 in the nation. Michigan has taken its game up a notch, with everybody elevating their play to make them look like they did in November and December, when they were blowing everybody out. That team is back, and they have scored 90 points or more in all four of their tournament games. Consistency. They’ll score at least 80 against Arizona.