Zack's Past Picks
The dominance of the SEC got fourteen teams in. With that comes the difficulty of seeding. Texas A&M has been one of the SEC teams that has a high ceiling but does not live up to their potential on the court. Look for Yale as the more overall sound team to hang around, and represent the IVY league properly. Grab the points here with the Bulldogs.
NIT action continues as SMU takes on Northern Iowa. The Mustangs with a bit more stronger resume would have been a tournament team. Look for SMU to use the NIT as what it is meant for, and come out angry after losing in close fashion in the ACC tournament to Clemson. Northern Iowa is also a team that lost three of their final four games, and has had a layoff of eleven days. Lay it here with SMU.
Being worthy of being a tournament team is not a concern of North Carolina. I fully expect the Tar Heels to embrace the new life they have, when most had them on the outside of the tournament. They’ll get the draw of a San Diego State team that is lackluster in scoring efficiency and prone to droughts. Look for the Tar Heels to make a statement as they look to be the latest 11-seed to make some noise in the big dance.
At times this season Loyola Chicago has looked like the best team in the Atlantic 10. Yet, oddsmakers have ignored a clear rest advantage in today’s matchup against Saint Louis. The Ramblers will be stepping on the court for the first time in six days, while the Billikens played yesterday. That has to do with Saint Louis controlling both matchups this year against Loyola Chicago. They defeated them by 31 points on March 1st, and had Loyola on the ropes in the first matchup late before folding in the final minutes. Take the Billikens who probably are the most confident against Loyola then any other A-10 team.
A neutral site spread that seems incorrect is Boise State against San Diego State. On assumption this spread would figure to be closer to a pick based on their seasons, and the fact San Diego State blew out Boise 64-47. Since the Broncos made lineup changes and won five of their final six games. Look for those lineup changes to spark Boise State as they revenge their loss to the Aztecs.
The SEC tournament will once again be hosted in Nashville, which is the city of Vanderbilt’s campus. While the Commodores may have a fan edge against Texas, they may have peaked with a three game winning streak over ranked teams in Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri. They concluded the season with back to back losses where they have struggled defensively. Grab Texas to avenge their earlier loss to Vanderbilt and cover the small number.
The Horizon League championship will take place tonight against Youngstown State and Robert Morris. Both teams had to come from behind in tough victories in their semi-finals matchups yesterday. Look for the Colonials to finish off a tremendous run where they have won 15 of 16 games. A lower spread here based on Youngstown State defeating Robert Morris by 14 points and losing by just two in the second matchup. Different outcome tonight, lay it with Robert Morris.
Of the remaining four teams in the Southern Conference bracket, it’s clear which team does not belong. VMI has a 15-18 record and finished below .500 in conference play. They will take on a Wofford team that clicked on all cylinders in yesterday’s win over East Tennessee State. The Terriers also defeated Wofford on February 19th 82-43, in one of the most lopsided conference losses of the entire season. Yet, they defeated Wofford in January, and I believe can hang around enough to cover a steep spread. Grab the points here.
The WCC conference tournament continues Friday with two matchups. All four of Pepperdine’s conference wins came against the bottom two teams in the league in Pacific and San Diego. They were 0-14 against everyone else, including today’s opponent in Portland. In both defeats they lost by twenty points, but did lead in last week’s matchup by four points at halftime. Look for the Waves to play a more complete game this time around, and cover the small number.
Conference tournaments are underway today throughout the country. Out in Las Vegas the WCC’s first game will be San Diego versus Pacific. The Toreros had just two conference wins the entire season but showed competitive spirit over their final five games. This resulted in ending their sixteen game losing streak in a victory over Portland to end the year. Pacific is also a good opponent for the Toreros who they split the season series against. Take the points here with San Diego.
A year after being the darlings of the NCAA tournament, the NC State Wolfpack have sunk to the bottom of the ACC. They are just 4-14 in league play and will not be apart of the ACC tournament. This gives a little extra incentive to the upperclassmen to finish out the season on a positive note. Their last two home games they have won against Wake Forest and Boston College. Look for good effort once again on their home floor as home underdogs against Pittsburgh.
Today, the Atlantic Sun conference tournament continues for a second day of action. Time and time again postseason play harkens the phrase a team will have a hard time defeating the same opponent a third time. Typically in college basketball that task would be reserved for a neutral court setting. Not in the Atlantic Sun as Jacksonville hosts an Eastern Kentucky team they defeated in both matchups. Expect the atmosphere on their home court to put a bit of pressure on the home team. Take the underdog here in Eastern Kentucky.
The Governors have two recent ugly losses against the worst teams in the Atlantic Sun, a 6-25 West Georgia team, and a 5-26 Bellarmine team. Yet, Austin Peay defeated North Florida by eight points in the first matchup, and a big factor for me is today’s arena. North Florida which ranks tops in college basketball in three pointers made per game, shot poorly from beyond the arc at Flowers arena in the regular season (8 for 33). Take Austin Peay as the line move went the wrong way here.
Illinois has dropped out of the Top 25, and now surprisingly has double digit losses with eleven overall. Often times in any sport once a great streak ends, the momentum fades for a mini stretch for that team. I’m expecting that here with Michigan who continues to toe the line of close wins, with their last nine wins by four points or fewer. Take the Illini here plus the points.
It has been a frustrating season for Greg Paulus and Niagara who saw their up and coming team last season, get hit hard by the transfer portal. The Purple Eagles have shown fight against top level teams in-conference, including defeating Quinnipiac. Three out of their last four losses have been by less then three points. Look for Manhattan to put an end as they build off their seven point win over Niagara earlier this season.