Through a March Madness run even the top seeds get that one scary matchup. Today, I expect that to be the case for the Arizona Wildcats, who were flawless in their win over Arkansas. Purdue has the size, and four year program players to give the Wildcats their first true test. In the back end of tournament action forty eight hours later, grab Purdue plus the points.
Iowa State is the big question mark heading into tonight with the status of Joshua Jefferson up in the air. Tennessee and Rick Barnes are aiming for their third straight Elite 8 appearance, which has the market on their side. To me though, they are similar to Nebraska that got away with a win in the Sweet 16 against Virginia. This will be a tight game, but grab the Cyclones who have that Gonzaga trait of everyone has been waiting for this program moment.
Blowout wins can shift one’s mindset for a steep line. Alabama took care of business easily with two wins by over 20 points against Hofstra and Texas Tech. Michigan is a different animal and has that ability to turn a tied game into a bettor’s nightmare within three to four game minutes. I’d put their explosive grade higher than anyone left in the tournament. Tail the Wolverines as they advance to the Elite 8.
Houston gets the opportunity to advance to the Elite 8 while playing in front of their own crowd. As rare as that is, when it comes to facing a true contender home court is not as big of an edge. Illinois is also a team that throws four to five waves of scoring bursts in a game. Additionally, the Sweet 16 has given Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars problems each of the past three years. They lost twice, and needed a miracle comeback against Duke last season. Tail Illinois.
The tournament is setup to prevent lower seeds from facing conference opponents early in March Madness. You may see it in the Elite 8, Final Four, or championship game but today we are seeing it because of Iowa’s big upset over Florida. Look for the magic to continue as Iowa limited Nebraska to a season low 52 points in the first matchup, and erased a double digit deficit in the second to play in overtime. Grab Iowa’s mini Cinderella story plus the points.
Losing an impact player like Aden Holloway certainly hurts a team. Yet, Alabama has the system to overcome the first weekend against a Texas Tech team that did lose their final three games prior to March Madness. A great back and forth game but look for Bama to close in the final minutes.
Just barely a little over a month ago Clemson had a 20 and 4 record, but finished their last ten games with a 4 and 6 record. They also lost big man depth with Carter Welling sustaining a season ending injury late in the season. Look for Iowa to possibly shoot a lower percentage overall then Clemson, but to make up ground with three point shots from Bennett Stirtz and one of the top percentage sharp shooters in Tavion Banks who shoots it at 47 percent. Take Iowa.
The rest advantage for VCU and North Carolina, sides with the Tar Heels by three full days since North Carolina’s ACC exit last Thursday. That can be a factor early on for the Tar Heels to build a lead. Yet, VCU has shown their power all season long at adjusting to deficits and using their depth to rally. We saw it throughout Atlantic 10 conference play, and in the championship game against Dayton. Grab VCU plus the points.
Two teams that finished out the year strong meet in the play in today with Lehigh and Prairie View A&M. The Panthers have won nine out of their last ten games, but had the harder conference tournament path. They played four games in five days up through this past Saturday, while Lehigh played three conference tournament games in seven days. That’s a factor as well as the SWAC not being as strong as the past that has won the play-in four out of the last five years.
South Florida has won thirteen of their last fourteen games, and has shown an uncanny ability to go on big scoring runs in the second half. A team that has kept it close in both matchups against the Bulls was Wichita State, earning a split in their two conference matchups. Pressure is heightened on South Florida to try and secure what will be a one bid American Conference. Grab the points with the Shockers.
After beginning the season 16-0, Vanderbilt lost three straight games in SEC play. They got revenge on one of those losses yesterday by defeating Florida 91 to 74. Now they have a chance to do it again in what was their worst loss of the season to Arkansas 93 to 68. Take Vanderbilt to finish off the job as they win the SEC Conference Tournament.
After a four game losing streak towards the end of conference play, Kelvin Sampson has his Houston Cougars back on track. The offense had excelled during their win streak, but now the defense caught up in yesterday’s win against the Jayhawks limiting them to 47 points. Tournament momentum for March can be as simple as freshmen growing that extra level at the tail end of the season. We are seeing that with Houston’s trio in Kingston Flemings, Chris Cenac, and Chase McCarty. Tail Houston.
Rest and an edge from conference play has been inconsistent in conference tournaments. For instance McNeese State after a triple overtime win over UT Rio Valley Grande had no issues defeating a Stephen F Austin team that defeated they were 0-2 ATS in conference against. In the SWAC quarterfinals yesterday, Southern played a wire to wire game against Arkansas Pine Bluff, while Florida A&M had the day off. Even though they defeated Southern in both conference matchups, look for the Jaguars to handle the Rattlers as they advance to the SWAC final.
Cal State Northridge struggled to close out the year where they lost three out of their last four games. Even though they defeated San Diego in both matchups this season, there’s elevated pressure tonight with four senior starters. Guard Josiah Davis is also very turnover prone, as on the season he averages close to five a game. Just in his last four games he has turned the ball over twenty six times. Take San Diego to avoid three losses to Cal State Northridge.
SWAC tournament action beings Thursday, and Southern is trying to change their fortune in March. Five straight seasons they have lost the first game in SWAC tournament play, including losing as the top seed a year ago with a 15-3 conference record. Arkansas Pine Bluff struggled down the stretch of the season with losses in five out of their last seven games, including losing to 3-30 Mississippi Valley State. They did though defeat Southern in the lone matchup this year. Grab the points with Arkansas Pine Bluff.