A team that was never .500 a season ago has a chance to be 2-0 on the year in Albany. In fact, they did not have a win against a division one school in non-conference play until December 17th in 2025. Expect Manhattan to have some early rust after facing top competition against Kentucky in their first matchup. The better skilled team in Manhattan but the cover goes to Albany.

Typically in a matchup you are not going to get a bigger spread offered with a road favorite, than the outcome a season ago. Yet that is the case as Howard beat Alcorn State by just eight points at home in 2025. With a loss in their first game against against Yale, look for Howard to play with a sense of urgency at the start of tonight’s matchup. They get the win and cover this time against the Braves.

Ohio is a team that has lost each of their last four matchups against Sun Belt teams. They were also a team that started slow with a 1-6 record, and ended the year with four straight losses. Expect the staff and key returning players in Javan Simmons and Jackson Paveletzke to play with a chip on their shoulder in game one. They take down the Jaguars in game one.

Columbia is a team that struggled in Ivy League play a season ago. Overall they had a record of just 5-9. Yet, they were a one loss team in their first ten games a season ago, with that one loss being against UConn. Guard Kenny Nolan did transfer to Michigan, and Ryan Soulis to Northwestern but look for the Lions to jump out to another fast start against the Phoenix. Lay the number.

The Sun Belt and MAC challenge has been one sided as the Sun Belt has not lost the event in it’s three years of existence. These matchups have been competitive and of today’s ten matchups, 9 have spreads of 3.5 points or less. Troy is a team that gained notoriety for taking USC to overtime, and beating San Diego State in non conference play a season ago. Size gave them problems as the season wore on, and that’s a strength of UMass that has size at all skill positions. Grab the points here with the Minutemen.

Through a March Madness run even the top seeds get that one scary matchup. Today, I expect that to be the case for the Arizona Wildcats, who were flawless in their win over Arkansas. Purdue has the size, and four year program players to give the Wildcats their first true test. In the back end of tournament action forty eight hours later, grab Purdue plus the points.

Iowa State is the big question mark heading into tonight with the status of Joshua Jefferson up in the air. Tennessee and Rick Barnes are aiming for their third straight Elite 8 appearance, which has the market on their side. To me though, they are similar to Nebraska that got away with a win in the Sweet 16 against Virginia. This will be a tight game, but grab the Cyclones who have that Gonzaga trait of everyone has been waiting for this program moment.

Blowout wins can shift one’s mindset for a steep line. Alabama took care of business easily with two wins by over 20 points against Hofstra and Texas Tech. Michigan is a different animal and has that ability to turn a tied game into a bettor’s nightmare within three to four game minutes. I’d put their explosive grade higher than anyone left in the tournament. Tail the Wolverines as they advance to the Elite 8.

Houston gets the opportunity to advance to the Elite 8 while playing in front of their own crowd. As rare as that is, when it comes to facing a true contender home court is not as big of an edge. Illinois is also a team that throws four to five waves of scoring bursts in a game. Additionally, the Sweet 16 has given Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars problems each of the past three years. They lost twice, and needed a miracle comeback against Duke last season. Tail Illinois.

The tournament is setup to prevent lower seeds from facing conference opponents early in March Madness. You may see it in the Elite 8, Final Four, or championship game but today we are seeing it because of Iowa’s big upset over Florida. Look for the magic to continue as Iowa limited Nebraska to a season low 52 points in the first matchup, and erased a double digit deficit in the second to play in overtime. Grab Iowa’s mini Cinderella story plus the points.

Losing an impact player like Aden Holloway certainly hurts a team. Yet, Alabama has the system to overcome the first weekend against a Texas Tech team that did lose their final three games prior to March Madness. A great back and forth game but look for Bama to close in the final minutes.

Just barely a little over a month ago Clemson had a 20 and 4 record, but finished their last ten games with a 4 and 6 record. They also lost big man depth with Carter Welling sustaining a season ending injury late in the season. Look for Iowa to possibly shoot a lower percentage overall then Clemson, but to make up ground with three point shots from Bennett Stirtz and one of the top percentage sharp shooters in Tavion Banks who shoots it at 47 percent. Take Iowa.

The rest advantage for VCU and North Carolina, sides with the Tar Heels by three full days since North Carolina’s ACC exit last Thursday. That can be a factor early on for the Tar Heels to build a lead. Yet, VCU has shown their power all season long at adjusting to deficits and using their depth to rally. We saw it throughout Atlantic 10 conference play, and in the championship game against Dayton. Grab VCU plus the points.

Two teams that finished out the year strong meet in the play in today with Lehigh and Prairie View A&M. The Panthers have won nine out of their last ten games, but had the harder conference tournament path. They played four games in five days up through this past Saturday, while Lehigh played three conference tournament games in seven days. That’s a factor as well as the SWAC not being as strong as the past that has won the play-in four out of the last five years.

South Florida has won thirteen of their last fourteen games, and has shown an uncanny ability to go on big scoring runs in the second half. A team that has kept it close in both matchups against the Bulls was Wichita State, earning a split in their two conference matchups. Pressure is heightened on South Florida to try and secure what will be a one bid American Conference. Grab the points with the Shockers.