Losing an impact player like Aden Holloway certainly hurts a team. Yet, Alabama has the system to overcome the first weekend against a Texas Tech team that did lose their final three games prior to March Madness. A great back and forth game but look for Bama to close in the final minutes.
Since losing JT Toppin, the Red Raiders have posted a 4–3 record, suggesting they are vulnerable against teams with elite interior presence or high-volume transition attacks. Texas Tech is due for regression coming off a 55% 3-point performance over Akron, while Alabama shot just 33% from downtown in their win over Hofstra. Alabama’s Aiden Sherrell and Amari Allen are ready to dominate the glass and provide additional scoring chances that will exhaust the Red Raiders’ thin frontcourt rotation. Alabama holds a 7–1 all-time series lead against Texas Tech, including a perfect 2–0 record on neutral floors.
The Red Raiders own wins over Duke, Arizona and Houston. Even though they remain without JT Toppin, they have enough to get by an Alabama team missing Aden Holloway. Texas Tech excels in transition defense, which will be key in this matchup. The Red Raiders rank third nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and have hit 42.9 percent over their past three games. They've also been just as good of a 3-point shooting team away from home.
St. Joseph’s is 6-2 SU in its last eight road games. The Hawks are excellent on the boards and at defending the 3-point line. They just held Colorado State to 7 of 30 from beyond the arc. Cal is coming off an impressive home win but has had some deflating home performances this season. This should be a very tight game, so grab the points.
This is a battle of two teams going in different directions. Oklahoma State lost 8 of its last 11 before a close win over Davidson in the first round of the NIT. Meanwhile, Wichita State has won 10 of its last 12 games heading into Sunday's second round matchup. The Shockers also went 7-4 in true road games this year, a surprising record that gives me more confidence in this matchup. Not only do I think they cover the spread, but I'll be sprinkling Wichita State outright as well.
I see this game in the 60s and 70s as compared to the 80s. Arizona surrenders 68.5 points per game, while Utah State is at 70.5 PPG allowed. With neither team being a three point shooting machine, I expect tough interior player and slower offenses than we saw from both teams on Friday. But I'm confident my Wildcats hold the line and advance to the Sweet 16. Arizona 78, Utah State 67.
Utah State executed down the stretch to beat Villanova, but this is a totally different challenge. Arizona's size will make it tough for the Aggies to do what they usually do, score in the paint. The Wildcats barely broke a sweat against LIU and will demonstrate why they're the second favorite to win it all. The only postseason game Arizona hasn't covered came in the Big 12 semis, when the Wildcats won a virtual road game 82-80 over Iowa State as 2.5-point favorites.
This tournament is going like I thought with the top seeds dominating. I don't see that changing much on Sunday. Arizona was my highest rated team entering the tournament, while Utah State won a bad MWC this year. The Wildcats should own the offensive boards and live at the free throw line. Arizona also has a big edge defensively in this matchup. Mountain West teams have been horrible as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament, going just 16-41-3 ATS in that role since 2001. I think the Cats win a 85-68 kind of game to advance into the Sweet 16. Lay the 11.5.
George Washington eked out a one-point win at Utah Valley in its NIT opener Wednesday and has had to kill four days far away from home before playing in the dreaded Pit. New Mexico owns one of the nation's best home-court edge, having gone 15-3 outright there this season, while the Revolutionaries are 4-7 ATS away. The Lobos drew by far the largest crowd of the tourney's opening round at 7K-plus and figure to get heavy support today. They drilled Sam Houston by 24 on Wednesday, ringing up 107 points. Another double-digit win seems attainable.
The line has dropped from Florida -10.5 to -9.5 against Iowa in the second round of the NCAA tournament in Tampa. That's good news for me because I was going to lay 10.5. Iowa had 12 losses on the season and wilted against top-level competition. They lost to ordinary Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. They lost their last three games of the regular season, including at Penn State, where they were a 9.5-point favorite. Florida does not shoot threes that well, but they don't need to with that big lineup inside. They will outmuscle and outperform Iowa. Florida covers.
Apologies for the late post, but I jumped on the Rebels despite Tulsa’s 14-2 home record. Tulsa might not be at full strength, and we’ve seen a Josh Pastner team make a magical postseason run before. UNLV owns some impressive road wins and should keep this close.
Tulsa had its NCAA dreams wiped away by losing to Wichita State in the American Conference Tournament, and they now welcome UNLV in the Second Round of the NIT. Tulsa finished 27-7 this season, but more importantly for this bet, they went 22-10 to the over. The team they're playing was also one of the better over teams in the nation, as UNLV went 20-13 to the over. This is one where the total should probably be 172, but I'm laying less than 162. Just the over on this game.
I got a feeling we aren't going to see that much scoring in the Seattle at Auburn Second Round NIT matchup. Seattle's playing like they love the NIT and pounded St. Thomas 67-52 in the first round. That was their 20th under on the season, and it lowered their scoring average to 66 points allowed per game. I'm not sure that Auburn wants to be in the NIT, but they've stayed under in their last three games. Under is the play.
Tennessee and Virginia figured to play a low-scoring game in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament in Philadelphia. I made the total 129, and the send-out was 137.5. This is not the Tennessee and Virginia defenses from years past, but they both went under more times than over this year, with Tennessee staying under 18 times and Virginia 19 times. Virginia has gone over the total in their last five games, but Tennessee has gone under in their last three and seven of their last eight. Tennessee’s current form is what I'm banking on here. Both these clubs play strong defenses, with Virginia holding opponents to 39.6% shooting and Tennessee holding teams to 40.8% shooting. Let's get the under.
This is a battle of two defensive-minded teams who surrender less than 70 points per game on average. St. John's has given up 72 or less in 11 straight games, while Kansas has held 11 of its last 18 opponents to 70 points or less. This feels like a game which will be decided by no more than two or three possessions and will slow to a crawl in the final five minutes. I like the way St. John's has played of late more so than Kansas and will pick them on Sunday afternoon, 71-67.