3 Expert Picks
Greg McDermott's reload at Creighton looks short of ammo...
How much longer can Penny stay the favored son in Memphis? ...
Robert Morris is 6-0 at home this season...
UC San Diego, from the Big West, is 9-1 so far this season, and they're at Loyola Marymount, from the WCC, at 7-3. What I like most about San Diego is that they are sharpshooters with tremendous accuracy, shooting 50.4% from the field and 40.2% from three-point range, which is the fourth best in the nation. They score 84 points a game and allow 71. Their only loss on the year was by six at Nevada, and their only non-cover on the season was at Long Beach State, where they won by six, and the spread was eight. San Diego is looking like a serious candidate to make the NCAA tournament again. San Diego to cover.
With a new coach and a mostly-new lineup, few Big West onlookers were expecting UCSD to replicate its 30 wins of a year ago. Yet promoted HC Clint Allard effectively mined the portal for a new look, including F Leo Beath (19.1 ppg) via FAU, and the Tritons still seem the best side in their loop. Scoring better than 84 ppg and hitting better than 50% from the floor and 40% beyond the arc, UCSD can connect from all angles, and has only stumbled at Nevada in a challenging early slate. Meanwhile, LMU's recent back-to-back losses vs. Stony Brook & Saint Louis suggest the Lions might be losing some steam. Play UCSD.
One of the toughest things to do is play early conference games in December, and then have a layoff. That is a factor tonight for Cal Poly that played two Big West conference games, and go into tonight on a ten day layoff. Montana State has just two wins against division one schools, and just played three days ago against Oregon State. Despite a poor road record of 1-6, look for their road heavy schedule to pay dividends tonight. Lay the small number or moneyline Montana State.
BYU is again being asked to chop lots of lumber in Provo, but results in recent weeks suggest the Cougs are up to the task. Competent recent visitors to the Marriott Center like Cal Baptist and UC Riverside have been run off the court as BYU has made it back into the top ten, fueled by last week's wild comeback win vs. Clemson at the Jimmy V Classic. Super frosh 6-9 AJ Dybantsa (20.9 ppg) is more than living up to the hype, and the Cougs kept extending the lead vs. UCR on Saturday as they hit 59% from the floor. Meanwhile, though UOP might be competitive at its own level in the middle of the WCC, matchups don't look promising here. Play BYU.
As Queens plays at only one speed--fast--the Royals might as well have Lando Norris as coach. The Formula 1 style preferred by Grant Leonard puts up lots of points (85 pg) but gives them up just as fast (86 pg), and Queens is even less inclined to touch the handbrake against power conference opposition, most recently throwing caution to the wind on Sunday at Wake Forest. The result was a 111-73 loss, the fourth time in six games that someone in a Queens game hit the century mark. We suppose many Razorbacks have eyes as big as saucers at this chance to score points, which John Calipari won't discourage, as the Porkers score even more rapidly (88.1 pg) than the Royals. Play Queens-Arkansas Over.
The Red Raiders have Duke on deck and are off a loss to the Razorbacks. This is a big step up in class for Northern Colorado as they played one of the weaker schedules to begin the season. The Red Raiders are still a top defensive team in the country but they aren’t as strong, overall, as a team like last season. Their bench isn’t deep and still getting fully healthy. Northern Colorado is currently leading the nation in defending the arc but that’s also due to their level of competition. However, there’s familiarly on both sides with coaching and the Bears have nine players averaging 10 minutes, or more. They’re much better free throw shooting team and have size to battle on the boards.
Georgia Tech’s Baye Ndongo is questionable for tonight. He hasn’t played in 13 days, dealing with an undisclosed injury. The Yellow Jackets are only 2-5 ATS at home this season while Marist is 3-0 ATS on the road. The Red Foxes defense is one of the best in country currently, holding their opponents to less than 44% shooting, and should be able to create turnovers as Georgia Tech has struggled protecting the ball. The Red Foxes two losses on the season came by a combined four points and should’ve beaten Xavier, who’s a better team than the Yellow Jackets. Marist is the much better free throw shooting team too, as the Yellow Jackets are near the bottom of the country.
This is the first true road game of the season for South Carolina but this is also a rivalry game. The Tigers are a deep team but they don’t overwhelm their opponents with athleticism. South Carolina is also a deep team, nine players averaging 12 minutes, or more, per game. Each team wants to play in the half-court, so tempo shouldn’t be an issue. The Gamecocks don’t turn the ball over and were competitive against three of their tougher opponents, losing all three of those games by a combined 12 points. South Carolina has also covered three of the last four games against the Tigers.
UT Rio Valley Grande is a team that lost the majority of their starting five from last season. It shows on the floor as they are one of the lowest scoring teams in division one, ranking 296th. They scored just fifty points in their last game against UT Arlington, and have lost four out of their last five games. Expect a close game as Lamar’s only Southland conference game they scored forty nine points against Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Take the points here with UT Rio.
Think this number has reached a peak. Home teams generally dictate tempo, and that's what I'm counting on here as Dayton generally plays games in the 140s or 150s -- the Flyers allow 71.0 PPG. Florida State will want to push tempo but was held to 76 points in its lone true road game and also held in check by good defensive teams like Texas A&M (FSU scored 59 points) and Houston (scored 67). Our model -- I look for totals -- has 154 points scored.
These two missed each other at Maui a few weeks ago and the Cougs are probably wishing they could turn back the clock, as they haven't won since beating Chaminade in Lahaina. This matchup conjures memories of old Pac 8/10/12 era, and Wazzu might be longing for those days as David Riley's current edition has dropped four straight and hasn't scored more than 64 in the last three of those losses. In the most-recent setback, vs. Nevada, the Cougs hit only 39% of their shots. SC is certainly more potent, as the Trojans shook off last week's loss to Washington by scoring 94 at midweek down at San Diego, hitting 62% from the floor with ex-Auburn wing Chad Baker-Mazara exploding for 31 points. Play USC
Neither of these two teams play much defense as they’re both allowing their opponents to shoot over 51% from the floor. Both teams struggle with turnovers due to their pace of play, especially Portland, and the Golden Flashes are aggressive on defense, creating steals as well. The Golden Flashes are averaging at least 29 threes per game and if they aren’t falling, they’re just outside the top 50 in offensive rebounding. These two are 10-3 to the over in their last 13 games, scoring 182.9 points combined per game this season.