2 Expert Picks
CCSU is 26-1 in its past 27 when scoring at least 70. ...
Some 2-9 records are better than others--ask the Beach! ...
In the Billikens' last game, an 85-75 win over USF last Saturday, we got a good idea what HC Josh Schertz preaches, as SLU racked up an impressive 20 assists compared to just 9 TOs. That's the latest example of how the Bills continue to be a smooth-running offensive machine, scoring at a 91 ppg clip with five DD scorers, all between 10-13 ppg, with BC transfer G Dion Brown leading the way. Meanwhile, Reggie Theus might have a SWAC contender at BCU, but the Wildcats aren't slowing the pace vs. top-shelf opposition, allowing 94 ppg vs. the five best foes (Auburn, Miami, Dayton, Indiana, Mizzou) faced thus far. Play BCU-SLU Over
A team where their overall record is misleading is Louisiana Tech at 6-3. They have won four out of their last five games, and each of their last three victories have been by margins of twenty plus points. Yet, the strength of competition has not been there, and they are 0-3 on the road. Grab the Green Wave here.
Penny Hardaway's untouchable status in Memphis might be due for review if the Tigers can't climb above .500 (they haven't yet). The latest indicator things might be amiss in the Bluff City was a blowout loss to Louisville, while Penny's latest portal forays don't seem to have replaced explosive G PJ Haggerty, now scoring in bunches for Kansas State, as an effective "trade" with the Wildcats for G Dug McDaniel (14.1 ppg) is tilted much in K-State's direction. (McDaniel is also Penny's only DD scorer.) Mark Byington's explosive Vandy looks a bad matchup, with the Dores rocketing at better than 95 ppg, with athleticism thru the roof since the addition of G Duke Miles (recently Oklahoma, but now on fourth school; 16.6 ppg). Play Vandy
Robert Morris had some big home/away splits last season and it looks like it might be the case again this year. The Colonials are 6-0 at home and 2-4 on the road so far. This is also a good matchup for Robert Morris. The Colonials do a good job on the offensive glass, ranking 30th in second-chance conversion percentage at Haslametrics. Meanwhile Youngstown State is a smaller team that ranks 255th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Penguins rely heavily on the three-point shot, getting 40% of their scoring from beyond the arc. This plays into Robert Morris’ hands. The Colonials have defended the three at an above average rate this season. Bet the Colonials on the ML up to -125 or -2 on the spread.
Greg McDermott is frustrated with his team and I bet on that frustration to continue in Cincinnati. The Bluejays have been blown out in each of their two true road games. Over the past three games, Creighton has allowed opponents to shoot 43.1 percent from beyond the arc. Richard Pitino has a slew of good shooters ready to take advantage of Creighton's lack of connected defenders. I would play this up to -4.
It took a couple of weeks, but Richard Pitino finally has the X on course and on the ascent into Big East play. Five straight wins look a buy signal on the Musketeers, who among other things have been shooting their 3-balls a lot better than the first two weeks, hitting another 12 last Friday vs. Mizzou State and now better than 37% for the season, while ex-FAU PF Tre Carroll looks a potential "Beast of the Big East" after a recent 30-point show vs. crosstown Cincy. Meanwhile this looks a very downgraded Creighton side as Greg McDermott hasn't effectively replaced four DD scorers from last year's latest Big Dance qualifier, and missing the defensive presence 7-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner (now NBA Hornets) provided. Play Xavier
Naturally of my five picks yesterday, college hoops was the only loss. By a darn half point. Two pretty bad teams here, but Stonehill is 0-6 away and New Hampshire 3-1 at home. UNH might be rusty not having played since Dec. 6 but really no excuse not to be fully prepared for the visitors now. The Wildcats lead America East in rebounding (38.2 per game) (27.0) and and turnover margin (0.40) and are No. 2 in turnovers (11.5 per game) as well as third in steals (6.70 per game). Two of Stonehill's three wins are against non-DI opponents.
UC San Diego, from the Big West, is 9-1 so far this season, and they're at Loyola Marymount, from the WCC, at 7-3. What I like most about San Diego is that they are sharpshooters with tremendous accuracy, shooting 50.4% from the field and 40.2% from three-point range, which is the fourth best in the nation. They score 84 points a game and allow 71. Their only loss on the year was by six at Nevada, and their only non-cover on the season was at Long Beach State, where they won by six, and the spread was eight. San Diego is looking like a serious candidate to make the NCAA tournament again. San Diego to cover.
With a new coach and a mostly-new lineup, few Big West onlookers were expecting UCSD to replicate its 30 wins of a year ago. Yet promoted HC Clint Allard effectively mined the portal for a new look, including F Leo Beath (19.1 ppg) via FAU, and the Tritons still seem the best side in their loop. Scoring better than 84 ppg and hitting better than 50% from the floor and 40% beyond the arc, UCSD can connect from all angles, and has only stumbled at Nevada in a challenging early slate. Meanwhile, LMU's recent back-to-back losses vs. Stony Brook & Saint Louis suggest the Lions might be losing some steam. Play UCSD.
One of the toughest things to do is play early conference games in December, and then have a layoff. That is a factor tonight for Cal Poly that played two Big West conference games, and go into tonight on a ten day layoff. Montana State has just two wins against division one schools, and just played three days ago against Oregon State. Despite a poor road record of 1-6, look for their road heavy schedule to pay dividends tonight. Lay the small number or moneyline Montana State.
BYU is again being asked to chop lots of lumber in Provo, but results in recent weeks suggest the Cougs are up to the task. Competent recent visitors to the Marriott Center like Cal Baptist and UC Riverside have been run off the court as BYU has made it back into the top ten, fueled by last week's wild comeback win vs. Clemson at the Jimmy V Classic. Super frosh 6-9 AJ Dybantsa (20.9 ppg) is more than living up to the hype, and the Cougs kept extending the lead vs. UCR on Saturday as they hit 59% from the floor. Meanwhile, though UOP might be competitive at its own level in the middle of the WCC, matchups don't look promising here. Play BYU.
As Queens plays at only one speed--fast--the Royals might as well have Lando Norris as coach. The Formula 1 style preferred by Grant Leonard puts up lots of points (85 pg) but gives them up just as fast (86 pg), and Queens is even less inclined to touch the handbrake against power conference opposition, most recently throwing caution to the wind on Sunday at Wake Forest. The result was a 111-73 loss, the fourth time in six games that someone in a Queens game hit the century mark. We suppose many Razorbacks have eyes as big as saucers at this chance to score points, which John Calipari won't discourage, as the Porkers score even more rapidly (88.1 pg) than the Royals. Play Queens-Arkansas Over.
The Red Raiders have Duke on deck and are off a loss to the Razorbacks. This is a big step up in class for Northern Colorado as they played one of the weaker schedules to begin the season. The Red Raiders are still a top defensive team in the country but they aren’t as strong, overall, as a team like last season. Their bench isn’t deep and still getting fully healthy. Northern Colorado is currently leading the nation in defending the arc but that’s also due to their level of competition. However, there’s familiarly on both sides with coaching and the Bears have nine players averaging 10 minutes, or more. They’re much better free throw shooting team and have size to battle on the boards.