Cincinnati
Bengals
CIN
Last 5 ATS
W/L2-2
ATS2-2
O/U2-2-0
FINAL SCORE
20
-
6
Houston
Texans
HOU
Last 5 ATS
W/L0-4
ATS0-4
O/U2-2-0
Last 5 ATS
2-2
Win /Loss
0-4
2-2
Spread
0-4
2-2-0
Over / Under
2-2-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Is this a must-win game for the Texans? Technically, no, of course not. But now, opening at home coming off a devastating Week 1 loss to Buffalo, Houston is facing a 0-2 start. Only three teams have won a Super Bowl when beginning a season that way, and only 16% of playoff teams who lost in Week 1 have started 0-2 since 2020. The Bengals appear seriously improved defensively, but Tampa Bay last week committed four turnovers, and while CJ Stroud is mistake-prone, he’s not about to do that. Plus, Houston has a better complement of playmakers, homefield advantage (whatever that is worth these days) and every motivation to rebound.
Nico Collins has been ruled out for this game, putting the Texans down two key WRs with Jayden Higgins out for the year. That's going to make it difficult to score points on what looks like an improved Bengals defense. Cincinnati's offense can get stymied on the road against great defenses (remember Week 1 at Cleveland last year), and Joe Burrow appears to be less than 100 percent while dealing with a back injury. We're getting this on the right side of a key number to go with the Under.
We'll back the Bengals gun slinger to do some damage against a vaunted Houston defense that allowed 409 yards and 36 points to the Bills last week. His heroics weren't needed much last week amid a slew of short fields provided by 4 Tampa Bay turnovers. In other words, we'll chalk his 1-TD performance up to variance and take the value on 2 passing TDs in Week 2.
Dalton Schultz ran a route on 76% of CJ Stroud's dropbacks in Week 1. He had a 21% target share and a 18% first-read target share. Now alpha WR1 Nico Collins is out, and the wide receiver room is quite thin behind Collins. So look for Schultz to become an even bigger part of the passing game. Take advantage of the Schultz line before it moves much. But I'll likely alt Schultz up to 50+ receiving for plus money.
Especially after what we saw the Bills do on Thursday Night, it appears this Texans team is pretty darn good in what was a heckuva game last week that if not for a dropped interception, they would have won. The Bengals are not the Bills and I believe Houston bounces back here with a big effort defensively. Cincy doesn't have nearly the rushing attack that Buffalo has, nor are they as physical, nor do they have as good of a defense. I think the Texans are clearly the better team and laying less than a field goal is advantageous.
DraftKings. With Nico Collins not expected to play in Week 2, this is a great spot for Xavier Hutchinson to pick up some targets. The Texans receiver, who runs most of his routes out of the slot, lead the non-Nico receivers in routes last week, and has emerged as a key weapon when needed for CJ Stroud. Last season, Hutchinson had 69 and 84 yards in the two games without Collins. As we cashed in on last week, I like the slot match up against the Bengals.
Last week, we saw a boatload of crooked numbers in the NFL, as Week 1 Sunday was one of the highest-scoring opening weeks we’d ever seen. What does that mean for this week? Overreactions across the board, and that’s what we have here in the Bengals-Texans game. Suddenly, the Texans' defense struggling doesn’t look as bad after watching the Bills against the Lions. Sunday, they’ll face a slightly more compromised Joe Burrow dealing with a back injury. The Texans are most likely down their top offensive weapon, Nico Collins, as well. I’m looking for a slow start both ways here, and above the key number, a first-half Under makes too much sense. Shop around, as you can find this at -125.
Cincy hung on to beat Tampa Bay in after the Bucs had 4 TOs, including fumbling into the end zone. Some credit goes to what seemed like an improved Bengals defense, but Baker had 3 fumbles, which isn't surprising considering he led the NFL in that category each of the last two seasons. The projected high-flying Bengals offense only had 351 yards, with Chase catching 2 passes and Brown running for 56 yards. The Texans vaunted defense (1st in 2025) got lit up in Week 1 by Buffalo, but after watching last night's Bills destruction of the Lions, maybe that's not so bad after all. I do not expect the Texans defense to look that bad again the rest of the season.
Houston’s defense was gashed by Josh Allen and the Bills. Look for a renewed focus from that unit vs. Joe Burrow, who’s been limited in practice (back). I’m not sure the Texans’ offense is as good as it looked vs. Buffalo either, but it has a gameplan for production and I still see Houston as having the best overall defense in the league. Baker Mayfield gifted three fumbles and the Bengals nearly still lost at home.
I thought the Bengals revamped defense did exactly what it was supposed to do in their opener. They turned the ball over and made things difficult for the Bucs. Conversely it was a very un-Texans-like defensive performance vs Buffalo. What gives Houston the edge is that Burrow is coming into this game a bit banged up and that's just enough for me to trust the Houston defense in a bounce-back spot.
The Texans had a weird game, looking strong on offense but weak on defense. I'll chalk that up to the matchup against Buffalo. The Bengals benefited from fumbles in a win over the Bucs, but I think it was a step forward for their defense overall, and the offense showed it can be effective without leaning on its primary receivers, in case the Texans' corners have a rebound performance. I put this as a 2-point line, and I want to jump on the Bengals before this comes off the 3.
Pitre departed with a shoulder injury and never returned during Sunday's 40-20 win over the Cardinals.
Bozeman (arm) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Dolphins.
The Texans ruled out Montgomery (groin) for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Titans.
Montgomery suffered a groin injury during Sunday's game at Tennessee.
Bozeman (groin) is listed as active for Sunday's game against the Dolphins.
Cook (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against Miami.
Young (knee) is inactive for Sunday's game versus the Dolphins.
McDonald (ankle) is active for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Klein (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Titans.
Stewart is active for Sunday's game against the Titans.
