This is a massive spread, but the Titans’ offense has been an absolute disaster, and while the Ravens are hardly among the best defenses in the league, they are an experienced and capable unit that should be able to get to Cam Ward and force off-schedule throws. Baltimore’s offense is back in a groove with Zay Flowers healthy, and with a steady diet of Derrick Henry, this feels like a game where Tennessee will simply be pounded into submission by Lamar Jackson & Co. The Ravens should win by two touchdowns or more against the second-worst team in the league.

Let's kick off "Hold Your Nose" week with the biggest underdog on the board. Baltimore is coming off an international trip to Brazil and is especially beaten up across the offensive line. Trey Hendrickson is also out on the defensive line. Tennessee is healthy and they continue to play hard. 0-3 teams are typically a good play in Week 4 ATS and the Ravens could possibly be set up here for a flat spot off the emotional win in another country - with Sunday Night Football on deck next week followed by two consecutive division games, followed by at Buffalo and hosting Jacksonville. This looks like a soft spot and 11.5 is too many in my mind. I made the number 8.5.

This is a lot of points to lay for a Ravens team that's given up at least 23 points in every game this season. But it's about matchups, and Baltimore has the good ones. Tennessee can't stop the run, and its offense ranks 29th in rushing and 30th in passing. Baltimore has put up 34 and 41 points in its wins.

It would be surprising if the Derrick Henry revenge game involved a lot of passing from Lamar Jackson. The Titans pass rush isn't great, their secondary leaves a lot to be desired, this should mean some premium efficiency from Jackson, but maybe not so much in terms of passing. History is also on our side: In 14 career games when Jackson has played and Derrick Henry has had 20-plus carries, Jackson has thrown 28 or more times in four of them, including two losses (that would be a shock) and one one-score win. Best of all, if the Ravens blow the Titans out, Jackson might sit in the fourth quarter.

Zay Flowers has been incredible when he’s been on the field this season. The problem for Flowers is he hasn’t been on the field that much, mainly due to injuries, but the stud WR logged his first full practice since Week 1 which bodes well for him to sell a full time role in Week 4. Flowers has incredible underlying metrics ranking first in targets per route run, first read targets per route run, yards per route run, and yards per target. Long story short, he’s the clear focal point of the passing attack. While dropbacks might be limited considering the Ravens are double digit favorites, he has a low receiving line and could go nuclear if this game is competitive.

Not many positives to takeaway from a Titans team that so far looks pretty awful, however Tony Pollard has been one of the lone bright spots and continues to be undervalued in the prop market. Pollard has been shockingly efficient this season, despite playing on a terrible team in a seemingly subpar situation. He continues to handle large rushing loads and he’s actually making the most of them. The Titans are also extremely conservative offensively and are not afraid to run the ball in trailing gamescripts. Pollard now faces a Baltimore defense that has struggled in run defense. I’m going back to the Pollard well until the oddsmakers properly adjust his lines.

Game flow should definitely be in our favor for this prop. Tennessee is terrible and should be getting trucked by Baltimore, which means having to throw plenty in the second half. Wan'Dale Robinson has a 21% target share and 28% first read share from Cam Ward and faces a Ravens defense which has allowed the second most receptions and 8th most yards to wide receivers thus far. He's also gone over this prop in 2 of 3 games to date as a Titan. I'm expecting closer to 50 yards again on Sunday.

FanDuel (1.5u). Wan’Dale Robinson has 13 catches on 18 targets across three games, clearing this line in 2/3 contests. His lone miss was in a brutal individual matchup against the Eagles, in which the Titans were unexpectedly in a positive/neutral gamescript throughout, and Cam Ward only dropped back 26 times. Against the Ravens, I’m expecting much more passing needed, with the Titans double-digit underdogs on the road. Baltimore is brutal to run against, and for the second straight season, are a wide receiver funnel. The Ravens allow 14.7 WR receptions per game (second most in the NFL, similar to last season). Part of that is eight catches per game permitted out of the slot, at a Robinson-friendly 7.8 aDOT.