Nearly everything went wrong for the Rams in the first meeting between these teams, and while that should give the Panthers confidence in this rematch – especially since they are hosting – it’s tough to see how Carolina stays within the margins. Los Angeles is a far more talented and experienced team, and it was dealt a wake-up call over Weeks 16-17. In seven games against playoff teams, the Panthers are 2-5 with all five losses coming by 11+ points (including defeats of 29, 31). The Rams are 2-0 ATS as double-digit favorites this season, and there’s a reason this is the first game of the wild card weekend slate.

Neither team could stop each other in the first meeting. This time may be a little different with this being the playoffs and all but the overpass hit in seven of the Rams nine road games. Even though Los Angeles’ defense is leading the league in scoring defense, they’re only 19th in the league in passing yards allowed. The Panthers should have similar success through the air and Los Angeles can easily score 30 points themselves, just need the Panthers to help a little.

Carolina benefited from ugly weather and some fortunate turnovers by the Rams in their first meeting this year. I don't think the Panthers will be as fortunate as they were to slow down the Rams offense this time around. Bryce Young's made some big throws under pressure this season and if things are tight, he might be able to sneak his way into the next round. The Rams will be substantially sharper to start this game than they were against Carolina the first time around, the offense should pile up the points and if the Panthers are forced to throw a ton, this one could get out of hand. With this down to 10 because of more bad weather I'm jumping on it now.

Kyren Williams had 13 carries for 72 yards when these teams met in Week 12. Williams was able to go over this rushing yards mark, despite L.A’s rush attack getting phased out in a shootout. This time around, I expect the Rams to handle business early and play from in front. In a positive game script, Williams should get a steady diet of carries. He has 65+ rushing yards in 12 games this season, and can exploit a Panthers defense that finished the year 25th in defensive rush DVOA. I like Williams to go over his rushing yards total and to find the end zone.

It was six weeks ago that LA invaded Bank of America Stadium and in pole position for the home edge thru the NFC playoffs, but three Matthew Stafford giveaways were key in a 31-28 loss to the Panthers, who made a habit of close games all season. Stafford would subsequently implode again two weeks ago at Atlanta, while the LA defense has sprung some unexpected leaks the past six weeks and special teams have remained a recurring issue. It's doubtful the Panthers win the TO battle to the degree they did on November 30 but Bryce Young has been able to make enough plays to keep the Panthers close almost every week...and close is good enough at this price. Play Panthers

The Panthers beat the Rams in Carolina on November 30th, 31-28, as 9.5-point dogs, and the game went over the total of 44.5. It’s 46 on Saturday. The Rams have gone over the total in their last six games, and they get Devante Adams back this week after missing the last three weeks. Carolina has lost their last two games when they absolutely had to have it, and they still made the playoffs. The NFC South, wow, not a winner in the crew. I think the Panthers will score, but not more than the Rams.

Davante Adams missed three games this season, and he still was the leader in touchdowns among all wide receivers by three touchdowns (14). Now, the king of the endzone (and redzone targets) is back! Adams had two touchdowns in this same matchup in November. I usually like hunting for plus money ATDs, but this feels like a great price still, even at -135. I sprinkled on Adams' First TD and 2+ TDs as well.

On paper, the Rams should easily cover this spread against Carolina. But in actuality, the Panthers have the confidence from beating Los Angeles earlier in the year and comes in with that type of energy for this matchup. Obviously they can't depend on the same volume of turnovers they got last time, but the same energy will be met which will keep this very close.

With the playoffs finally here, I expect Sean McVay to lean on veteran running back Kyren Williams. He has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in five of his last six games, the exception coming at Seattle. I love this bet because Carolina is getting back starting defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton from a hamstring injury. Wharton is the lowest-graded run defender on the Panthers, and they are much worse against the run with Wharton on the field. His backup, Bobby Brown, suffered a concussion last week at Tampa Bay and is uncertain to play. Williams averaged 5.5 ypc in the first meeting with Carolina, finishing with 72 yards on 13 carries. I'm expecting a bigger workload Saturday.

Puka Nacua destroys zone coverage, which the Panthers play at the NFL's highest-rate. He has racked up 460 yards after the catch vs. zone schemes. He cleared this prop total in five straight games, including making a 31-yard catch at Carolina, before failing to hit it in the last two regular-season games. Still, with Davante Adams back to attract some attention, I love Nakua to make at least one big play if not a few.

I have no problem playing the Rams at -10, as I think they're likely to win this game by 20+. The Panthers finished the season with a -68 point differential, the worst mark for any playoff team in history. Carolina scored 14 or fewer points in 8 games this season, and are going to get outpaced by L.A's #1 ranked offense. Carolina's upset win in their first meeting this season was a fluke. They are not on the Rams level. I'll be playing Rams alternate spreads up to -23.5 (+420).

I expect a heavy dose of both Blake Corum and Kyren Williams in this game. In the first meeting, the two combined for 153 yards on 20 carries and I thought the Rams should have ran the ball more in a close game. Corum has double-digit carries in four of his last five games. The only time he didn't go over this number is when he left with an injury versus the Falcons. The Panthers allow 23 rushing attempts per game to running backs and with the Rams being the largest favorites of Wild Card Weekend, there is certainly a scenario where they are playing with a lead in the second half. Bet up to 10.5.

DraftKings. Blake Corum finished the season clearing this rush attempts line in seven of his final 10 full games (and was tracking for another before leaving with an injury in the second quarter). One of the misses was against the Panthers, in a bizarro gamescript that saw the Panthers dominate time of possession (35 minutes to 25). I’m not expecting the same on Saturday, trusting the Rams to force Bryce Young to throw the ball (Panthers running backs had an absurd 35 carries in their first matchup). Corum did pop off in the first matchup for 81 yards on seven totes, and he’s been one of the Rams best weapons down the stretch.

This is tracking to be the third time a team has been favored by double digits on the road in a playoff game. In the first two, the favorites failed to cover, with the Tom Brady Bucs winning 31-23 against a 7-9 Washington and the 7-9 Seahawks beating the Saints 41-36 in the Beastquake game. The only other home 'dog of more than 7 also won outright in the Tim Tebow playoff game. Home 'dogs of at least 3.5 are 6-2 ATS in the playoffs since 2010 as well. Yes, the Rams are a much better team than the Panthers, but that didn't prevent them from losing outright in Carolina as double-digit favorites in Week 13. My ratings make this line Rams -7.

What an incredible Ravens-Steelers finale holy cow. Guess we have to deal with Aaron Rodgers one more week at least. I want to grab the hook on this Saturday game while it's there because I think this is too high even if the Panthers might be one of the worst playoff teams in modern history. Short week for L.A. and it lost in Charlotte, 31-28, in Week 13. Kinda doubt the Rams lose again but certainly believe the Cats can hang within 10.