If the Packers were full-strength with Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft, this would be a no-brainer. As it stands, the Bears have a real shot, particularly given Ben Johnson’s ability to exploit mismatches. Green Bay needs to get home against Caleb Williams, which it has not been overly successful at achieving without Parsons. Many of the Packers’ starters got an extra week of rest, Jordan Love is healthy, and if this turns into a passing game, he will have the edge. Another way to play this is to take Green Bay with the first-half line if worried about a Chicago comeback. The Bears remain a turnover-dependent team, and that’s not necessarily sustainable – even though it has been to this point in the season.

This is the Bears first home playoff game since the double doink. Green Bay is getting healthier but Josh Jacobs is still nursing a knee injury. The Packers should be able to limit Chicago’s passing attack but not so sure about their rushing attack. The Bears put a lot of money in their offensive line this offseason and their run game is third in the league with 144.5 yards per game. There’s a different feel around this Bears team under Ben Johnson and will be out to prove that tonight.

Packers RB Josh Jacobs suffered a knee contusion in Week 11, and saw a decrease in usage in the final month of the season. After resting in Week 18, Jacobs says his knee feels the best it has in a long time. He is over this rushing yards mark in 6 games this season, and had 17+ carries in 8 games. Weather in Chicago is expected to impact this game, which could force both teams into a run-heavy approach. The Bears rank 27th in yards per carry allowed, and 28th in defensive rush DVOA. Jacobs and the Packers rush attack can control this game.

The Green Packers were legitimate Superbowl contenders earlier this season but those dreams have been dashed without Micah Parsons anchoring their pass rush. However this provides a perfect buy low opportunity on a Packers side that's dealt with a number of health concerns down the stretch. Guess what? They're healthier in this game along their OL and at the skill position spots. It's actually a below average Bears defense dealing with cluster injuries in the back end that could pose problems. Look you don't show massive quantitative edges this time of year but for me the match-up is impossible to avoid where GB should be able to do what they want when they want offensively. I'll back the pack at a cheap ML price

The Packers stumbled down the stretch amid injury issues to QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs and top defender Micah Parsons. With the exception of Parsons, who is out for the season, they will be close to full strength for the first time in about a month. The Bears have made a remarkable turnaround in their first year under Ben Johnson, but we believe the postseason experience of Love and friends will make a difference as Green Bay manages a hard-fought victory.

DraftKings. Luther Burden has cleared this receptions line in four of his last five games. Even with Rome Odunze expected back today, Burden’s schematic matchup stands out. He has the Bears’ highest target rate and targets per route run against zone coverage, which the Packers deploy at the second d highest rate (data per Fantasy Points). And his low average depth of target (7.5 yards, lowest amongst Bears primary pass catchers, per PFF) lends better to the windy conditions expected today.

Had Romeo Doubs fielded that onside kick cleanly three weeks ago at Soldier Field, the Pack would have had two December wins over the Bears and the inside track to win the North. Credit Chicago and Caleb Williams for doing something with their second chance, but questions arose again last week when the Bears seemed all-out at home vs. the Lions but was blanked for 3 Qs en route to a bitter 19-16 loss. Of course the Pack lost four straight down the stretch but QB Jordan Love is back after missing the last two games and much of that Dec. 20 OT loss at Chicago, and this is a series mostly controlled by the Pack the past decade. Play Packers ML

There is potential for snow and wind in this game, but I'm going to fade weather concerns and back the offenses in this matchup. The Bears defense is bottom five in both net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush but has survived this season on takeaways. While Jordan Love has a few awful playoff games on his ledger, the Packers have thrown the fewest interceptions this year. The Green Bay defense has been wrecked by key injuries throughout the year, and I expect Ben Johnson to do a great job attacking it throughout the game. Two solid run games, two deep receiver rooms and two questionable defenses make this an Over play.

After playing a couple of partial games late in the season due to injuries (limited snaps and carries) and sitting out Week 18, Josh Jacobs says he's healthy and good to go for Saturday's Wildcard game. From Week 1 through Week 15, Josh Jacobs scored in all but three games. He scored a touchdown in the Week 14 matchup against the Bears' defense. I think the Packers will lean on a healthy Josh Jacobs, and he'll find the endzone again on Saturday night. I sprinkled on a parlay of Jacobs + Davante Adams' ATDs since I like both to score Saturday.

I don't understand why the total for the Packers-Bears game is set at 44.5 when there are so many variables that suggest the number is too high. When they met in Green Bay with the full-strength Packers squad, which happened to be their last win, that included Jordan Love and Micah Parsons playing, the number was 43.5. And when they met in Chicago a couple of weeks later, the number was 44.5. Saturday, we have 18 mph winds in 34° weather and possible rain? Rough passing conditions. Love has missed the last couple of weeks and might be a little rusty. The Bears' No. 3-ranked running game chews clock off and stays under.

Rome Odunze is expected to return after missing the last five games, and as a result I want to fade Loveland and his team-high yardage line. He's had two huge games the last two weeks but had more than 40 yards only four times previously in an offense that likes to spread it around with its top four players between 652 and 713 receiving yards. The Packers are a team to attack with receivers, as they've allowed the sixth fewest yards per game to tight ends at 44.6 yards despite seeing the 14th most tight end targets. Throw in potentially poor weather, and I think this number is at least a few yards too high.

What makes the Bears a difficult matchup is how they are built to win many different ways offensively. They can run the ball when they want to and have explosiveness in the pass game at both WR and TE. Defensively they are opportunistic and athletic. This is just a bad matchup once again for Green Bay.

D'Andre Swift has dealt with injuries this season but he's not on the injury report leading up to Saturday's Wild Card game vs. Green Bay. The veteran Swift has been more effective than rookie Kyle Monangai down the stretch, so I expect Ben Johnson to give Swift every opportunity to gash the Packers' vulnerable run defense. Swift averaged 4.8 and 4.5 yards per carry in the matchups with Green Bay. The Bears' main edge in this matchup is with their third-ranked ground game. And with wind potentially hampering the passing game, I bet Swift to get at least 60 rushing yards.