DraftKings. Lamar Jackson has cleared this line in three of his last six games. He seems to be healthier than this line would suggest, and this should be a spot where he can use his legs a bit more. The Pats utilize man coverage at the eighth highest rate, which is conducive to scrambles. I think this is worth a stab at plus odds.

Drake Maye struggled against Buffalo’s excellent pass defense. He should have a bigger game in Baltimore, with New England potentially playing from behind. He had thrown for 259 or more yards in six straight leading up to last week's home loss. The Pats rank fifth in pass rate above expectation. This number varies in the market; I would play it up to 238.5.

I am really not the type to double down on a game, but I think that Steelers upset victory in Detroit (presuming) makes this all that much more vital for the Ravens. Lose here and now in major trouble even with that Week 18 game in Pittsburgh. I have no idea if professional athletes think this way, but you'd imagine it's human nature. Oh, Steelers lost so you know this isn't the end of the world-type game. Now it is because we should expect Pittsburgh to win in Cleveland in Week 17. The Ravens still control their fate but obviously would not with a loss. Gonna go big with most of those key questionable Baltimore guys in. Maybe I am not seeing the Pats correctly.

The Ravens have given Keaton Mitchell 14 carries the past two weeks, and it's paid off. He ran for 76 yards against the Steelers and 66 yards against the Bengals. New England's run defense has suffered without Milton Williams, and on Sunday night the Pats won't have leading tackler Robert Spillane either.

There are clearly legitimate questions about Lamar Jackson’s health, but the Patriots defense is extremely dinged up entering this game, while the Ravens got Kyle Hamilton cleared to play. Baltimore’s red-zone struggles are less of a concern as New England struggles defensively in that area, and Drake Maye will be up against the toughest defense he has played on the road all season. The Ravens are in a must-win scenario at 7-6, Derrick Henry should take advantage of the Pats’ struggling linebackers, and Jackson has never lost a game he started in the final four weeks of the season.

We're at the point where I believe Lamar Jackson's health is trending up and the betting market is still pricing his legs like he's severely compromised. Combine that with the amount of man coverage we'll likely see from the Patriots and a high leverage game. I'm going to buy the dip for a small position that we see a more explosive version of #8 than we've seen the last few weeks

The Patriots are 11-3, and the Ravens are 7-7, while losing two of their last three games, and yet we have the Ravens as a 3-point favorite at home. Are we still holding on to hope with the Ravens like we were doing with the Chiefs? What this line is telling me is that the Ravens would be favored on a neutral field, and I have a hard problem accepting that. Lamar Jackson looks tired, and his 333 yards rushing is a career low by at least 400 yards. He's not the same, and the Ravens are not the same. So how are the Patriots getting points? I don't know, but I am betting on the value with the Patriots.

The 3s are disappearing so guess we gotta jump even if I was hoping to wait for the final injury report. If we push, we push. New England's leading tackler, Robert Spillane, is out, and it has a few other defensive injury concerns as well. I still think the Patriots are pretty overrated but clearly on the rise. Perhaps Bears-Pats in Super Bowl 61? (not expecting it this season) The Ravens need this much, much more and it's the home finale, something I always like to play if possible.

Reverse line movement alert. More than 80% of the public betting tickets are on the Patriots as underdogs, yet the line is moving to Ravens -3.5 on most books. Baltimore can look to exploit New England on the ground, where they have struggled defensively in recent weeks. It looks like Ravens stud safety Kyle Hamilton will play tonight, which is huge for Baltimore. This Ravens team has been perplexing this season, but it feels like they are slowly starting to come into form. Pats +3 smells like a trap. Ravens flock.

New England’s run defense has really regressed since losing DT Milton Williams. They will also be without LB Robert Spillane for this game, and both DT Christian Barmore & LB Harold Landry have ‘questionable’ tags. The Pats allowed 100+ rushing yards to RBs James Cook and Chase Brown in recent weeks, and even allowed the Giants RB duo of Tyrone Tracy & Devin Singletary to run for 100+ yards. Derrick Henry ran for 100 yards on just 11 carries last week. This Ravens offense may finally be figuring things out towards the end of the season. Henry is a freight train that is tough to tackle in the cold. I like King Henry to go off today.

DraftKings. Hunter Henry is under this line in eight of 14 games this season. This should be a tough spot for him, against a Ravens defense that allows the 11th fewest receiving yards to tight ends. Since the bye, the Ravens have been able to fully integrate Alohi Gilman into the defense at safety, and Kyle Hamilton has moved into the box/slot. Since then, the Ravens have only allowed one tight end to catch a 20+ yard pass over their last eight games. Henry also sees a drop in his target rate and yards per route run against man coverage, which the Ravens run at the fourth highest rate. I’d bet this down to under 18.5 yards.

The Ravens have been an enigma wrapped in a riddle all season long. Do we attribute the whitewashing of the Bengals last week to them breaking our or was that more Cincy related? Only one way to find out as we'll lay the FG here at an expensive 3. New England is very banged up on the defensive side and that could be problematic if the Ravens offense trends up here. Mike Vrabel is always scary to fade as a dog and because of that respect this position is only a partial for me where I show value on the dog at the field goal price tag

New England would be rolling into Baltimore with an 11-game outright win streak if not for coughing up a hefty lead to Buffalo last Sunday. The outcome might serve the Patriots well in bringing them back to earth. Hitting the road is hardly daunting, given the Pats’ 6-0 SU away mark with four straight covers as a road underdog. Baltimore, by contrast, is 3-5 SU at home. This surprising spread is based on the public’s belief that, amid a rocky season, the Ravens finally found their bearings with a shutout win last Sunday over Cincinnati. One stellar performance in a year mostly devoid of them does not support this line.

The Ravens are coming off a shutout win over the Bengals, but the final score was a bit deceptive as Cincy took it inside the Baltimore 40 on five drives without scoring. An awful Cincy D couldn't tackle Derrick Henry in cold weather, but that doesn't mean the offensive issues have magically gone away. The Patriots are a quality team that lost a close game against Buffalo, and they've been better than the Ravens for much of the season, so I don't get Baltimore laying the full three here.

We're seeing this up to 242.5 at some shops, so great value at this book. He's cashed this in all but two of the last 10 and he's now facing a Ravens defense allowing the 5th most attempts and over 245 yards a game. We should get either a close game or negative game script to help us get over. Last week was only Maye's second game all season dipping 60% or less on completion percentage. He still leads the league in that category as well as being 2nd in yards per attempt. Plus, he's 3-0 straight up and ATS in career primetime games. I like a bounce back for the Pats MVP and possibly the league's, if he can catch back up to Stafford.