FanDuel. De’Von Achane had crushed this line in each of his last three games, before falling just short in one half against the Jets before leaving with an injury. With no injury designation tonight, I’m expecting a massive workload for the running back. The Steelers not only allow the eighth most running back scrimmage yards, but also allow their opponents the most plays per game. I expect 21-22 touches for Achane, no matter the gamescript. That should put Achane conservatively in the 120s - I’d bet this up to over 114.5.

On the Early Edge this morning I gave out the Rodgers completions play, but also stated I was leaning to Miami. Now we have more information relating to Derrick Harmon being inactive AND the line has moved to 3.5 at Fanduel. That's too much for me to ignore. Miami isn't nearly as good as their recent record indicates, but they will be up for a primetime game and this is a watered down version of the Pittsburgh Steelers who were already missing plenty of key defenders (i.e. TJ Watt/Deshon Elliot). I'd also be willing to play this at +3 as long as the juice is in the neighborhood of even money.

The Steelers have allowed the fifth-most yards to slot receivers, putting Malik Washington in a nice spot Monday night. He has multiple catches in all but one game and is the only Miami wideout besides Jaylen Waddle receiving significant targets. Look for Washington to clear this relatively low number for the sixth time in the past eight games.

Kenneth Gainwell has 25-plus receiving yards in four straight games. With Miami’s tough run defense, look for Aaron Rodgers to keep using his running backs in the passing game. I would play this up to 25.5.

I believe we will see a Steelers tight end score a touchdown tonight. The Dolphins' defense is a good matchup for tight ends, and they give up a 6.3% touchdown rate to tight ends (24th in the NFL). The problem is that the Steelers use three tight ends. But Pat Freiermuth excels against zone coverage, which the Dolphins run at a high rate. He also has the most redzone targets (8) and most redzone touchdowns (3) and four touchdowns total among the Steelers' tight ends. Maybe I'm feeling confident after a 4-1 day and hitting two plus-money props on my Sportsline picks yesterday. But I like a half unit on Freirmuth ATD at this price.

Not exactly Dolphins weather tonight in Pittsburgh, but Miami does have four wins on the spin as Mike McDaniel has found something that works the past month. All a bit unlikely following GM Chris Grier's midseason dismissal and McDaniel apparently just missing a similar fate. While not posting spectacular numbers, Tua Tagovailoa has at least stabilized at QB, running a low-risk offense leaning on the run, and the defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in each of the five wins in the current six-game span. Meanwhile, the Steelers are off of their win at Baltimore, but still fail to convince, as the defense has often leaked (and no TJ Watt tonight) and Aaron Rodgers has been inconsistent at best at QB. Play Dolphins

Steelers RB1 Jaylen Warren is dealing with an illness ahead of this game, which could help Gainwell continue getting volume. Gainwell has been used effectively in the short area passing game, and is over this receiving yards mark in 5 of his last 6 games. Miami’s defense is quietly a Top-10 run stuffing unit since Week 10, so Pittsburgh could look to beat them with screens against stacked boxes. Gainwell has 7 games this season with 5+ targets, and I like him to get involved in Primetime with concerns about Warren’s status.

It's expected to be 17° in Pittsburgh tonight with winds blowing at 8 mph and no chance of precipitation, which means the Dolphins are in trouble as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0-5 when the temperature is below 40°. Both teams are hanging on for their playoff lives as the Steelers are in first in the AFC North at 7-6 and the Dolphins are 6-7. But the Dolphins have gotten hot, winning their last four and five of six. Pittsburgh comes off a win at Baltimore, where Aaron Rodgers had his best day of the season while having a fractured left wrist. I'm going against the Dolphins, who beat Washington, New Orleans, and New York. That's a trio of bad football teams. Steelers to cover.

I took the Dolphins to cover the +3.5 spread, and I'm playing a half unit on the ML as well. Steelers star DE T.J Watt suffered a scary collapsed lung injury, and is recovering at home after receiving treatment. Good news that Watt is going to be ok, but bad news for Pittsburgh with him out of the lineup. Since 2017, Watt has missed 11 games... the Steelers are 1-10 SU without him. That (along with Miami playing much better on both sides of the ball over the past month) is my handicap.

The Steelers need a win here to remain a game up on the Ravens, and they're going to have a key matchup advantage at tight end. The Dolphins allow the second most receiving yards to TEs in the league, and Pittsburgh has three good ones. But Washington has been the snap leader at the position for much of the season, on the field more than 60% of the time in seven of the last 10 games. He's had multiple catches in six of those seven high snap games and less than 20 yards only once. He's tended to be more involved at home as well, and the cold weather should make him tough to bring down. I'd play this up to 24.5.

Dolphins RB1 De'Von Achane has cleared his injury designation, and looks like he's good to go for MNF. After he hurt his ribs last week against the Jets, Miami put their trust in RB2 Jaylen Wright. Wright got 24 carries for 100+ rush yards and 3 targets, and was on the field for significantly more snaps than Miami's other RB Ollie Gordon. The Dolphins have a crowded running back room, but Wright may have solidified his place in it last week. If there is any concern about Achane's injury, Wright should be in line for 5-7 carries. Wright has 3 games with 5+ carries this season, and had 17 or more yards in each of them.

Aaron Rodgers hasn't been clearing this number a lot lately, but I think the matchup against a surging Dolphins rush defense pushes us north of 20.5 completions. Miami has been solid against the run lately and in a competitive game, I expect Rodgers to move the ball through the short area passing attack. Look for the RBs and TEs to flourish with high percentage targets from Rodgers as the path to win for Pittsburgh is likely through the air.

The Dolphins have found a successful formula, using all three of their talented running backs. Tua Tagovailoa has attempted 23 or fewer passes in four straight games, and he has stayed Under this prop total in six of his last seven. Miami plays at the third-slowest pace, while the Steelers play at the 10th-slowest. It will be bitter cold, though not extremely windy. I like Miami to be very competitive and don't believe Tagovailoa will be forced into a pass-heavy script.

This is a very difficult matchup for Jaylen Warren facing a Miami defense that doesn’t look overly imposing, however if we zoom in a bit they’ve been playing great defense recently. Since Week 10, Miami ranks 5th in EPA allowed per play, with terrific marks in run defense where they rank 2nd in EPA Allowed Per Rush and 9th in Success Rate. Warren has been inconsistent this season and remains in a pretty even timeshare with Kenneth Gainwell.

DraftKings. I’m hopping back on the Darnell Washington train this week. The massive tight-end was over this line in four of five games before leaving last week’s game early with a concussion. Fully cleared and off the injury report, I like Washington today in a great matchup. The Dolphins have been a tight-end funnel all season, allowing the second most yards per game at 68.2. Washington, whose snap and route share has shot upward over the last few weeks, should capitalize against some softer coverages. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 yards.

Warren's efficiency has been erratic -- just five games all year with more than 3.8 yards per rush with none in past three. And while his carry share in those past three is 61%, his snap rate is barely ahead of Kenneth Gainwell's -- 51% to 48.5%. Warren has averaged 3.2 yards per carry to Gainwell's 6.7. And Gainwell's been the better pass-catcher in terms of volume and receiving average too. I wonder if the Steelers make a pivot to Gainwell so defenses can't key in on them. By the way, Miami's run defense has improved greatly, giving up 3.9 yards per rush with an impressive 6.6% explosive rush rate allowed and zero touchdowns. This could be a big week for Gainwell, not Warren.

The Dolphins are 5-1 in their last 6 games, and have found their offensive identity behind a successful rush attack. The Steelers have been getting gashed on the ground in recent weeks, allowing 249 rushing yards to the Bills and 217 to the Ravens. Miami have also quietly been playing much better defense, now ranking 8th in defensive rush DVOA. Pittsburgh will probably be a popular pick coming off their upset win over the Ravens, but this feels like a let down spot. I like the Dolphins to keep it within a FG.

This is already ticking up and if De'Von Achane is ruled out for Miami, it surely will land north of -200. So let's take it now. Achane has been a huge reason the Fins have won four straight, rushing for at least 160 yards as a team in each. Will the Steelers really blow their huge Week 14 win in Baltimore for control of the AFC North by giving this one away? Miami has lost 13 straight games with game-time temperatures under 40 degrees and also 13 in a row on the road vs. teams entering with winning records. Both are the longest active losing streaks in the NFL.

We'll see if De'Von Achane is able to play, but early indication is that his injury is minor. Whoever the Dolphins roll out at RB could be in for a monster game, as the Steelers have been gashed for 466 rushing yards the last two weeks. Miami has 160+ rushing yards in four straight, even with Achane leaving early last week, so Miami's path to offensive success is clear. The Dolphins defense has allowed 17 points or less in four straight, and the Steelers offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders down the stretch. This is one that should be 3 at best, so I'll take the hook.