DraftKings. Nick Bolton is under this line in eight of eleven games this season. His overs have been significant (12+ in each), but in all eight unders, he’s at eight or less. The matchup is less than ideal in my opinion - the Cowboys, despite allowing tackle volume overall, are league average in terms of tackles allowed to linebackers. I expect limited receiving volume for the Cowboys running backs, which should cap Bolton’s potential tackles.

DraftKings. Rashee Rice has cleared this line in three of five games since he returned from his suspension. In those five games, he’s lead the Chiefs with a 24% target rate, and a 30% target rate specifically against zone coverage. The Cowboys employ a zone look at the league’s sixth highest rate. The Cowboys run defense is also much improved with the return of DeMarvion Overshown and the addition of Quinnen Williams. I’m expecting Rice to be peppered with short targets (67% of his targets are less than ten yards from the line of scrimmage).

This is a must-win game for both sides. In front of a national audience on Thanksgiving, the intensity should ratchet up even further. The Chiefs and Cowboys are each coming off tough, come-from-behind wins, but Kansas City has value in this spot. The Dallas win last week, while impressive, was a bit flukey as it got opportunity after opportunity with Philadelphia going scoreless for 41 minutes. That’s not happening with KC. The Chiefs went from -3 to -4.5 before kickoff last week for a reason, and they’d have covered easily if not for the odd early Patrick Mahomes pick. I’d take the Cowboys against most other teams in this matchup, just not KC.

Normally I'd want plus money for an anytime TD wager on a wide receiver , but Rice has a juicy matchup today against Dallas. The Cowboys have given up a league-high 18 TDs to opposing wideouts, with WR1s scoring 12 of those TDs. Since returning from suspension Rice has scored in 3/5 games, and has 8 targets inside the 10-yard line. Dallas' defense played well last week against Philly, going with a zone-heavy scheme and limiting the Eagles to 21 points... but Mahomes destroys zone coverage. I like Rice to find the end zone on Thanksgiving.

Dallas is 34-22-1 SU on Thanksgiving. They’ve also won three straight. The Chiefs can’t afford a loss as they're currently not in the playoff picture. Dallas’ offense can compete with any other offense in the league. However, their defense has been vulnerable all season which Patrick Mahomes can exploit. This should be a high scoring affair but this could end with a vintage Mahomes game winning field goal drive.

This sets up as a potential smash spot for Rashee Rice in a game with a projected 53 point total that is likely to feature plenty of passing volume. Rice has been exceptional against zone coverage which is good news considering the Cowboys have been playing zone at one of the highest clips this season, and particularly recently with an absurd 89% zone coverage rate since their Week 10 BYE. I expect Rice to continue to function as the top option for Mahomes.

A recent phenomenon in the NFL is reduced snap counts, often most pronounced in KC games; one example was the Raiders managing only 29 (29!) offensive plays in last month's loss at Arrowhead. That 31-0 Chiefs win is also the start of a five-game stretch where KC scorelines haven't exceeded 49. Indeed, totals in Chiefs games are averaging a tick under 40 points across those five. Snap counts in general are reduced...in that case, so can be scoring. When the Chiefs offense is working, it chips its way down the field, not working in big chunks, serving to run the clock. Recent improvements in the Dallas defense suggest we're not in for a fireworks show on Thanksgiving. Play Chiefs-Cowboys Under

The Cowboys play a high rate of zone coverage. Rice is targeted on 32% of his routes against zone coverage. That's why I like playing the reception angle. I think Patrick Mahomes will be able to keep feeding Rice on Thursday afternoon. Since Rice returned to the lineup in Week 7, he has had seven or more receptions in three of the five games he has played. This is a spot for him to exceed this line again, and I love the price we're getting on it as well.

The Chiefs are coming off one of their best defensive efforts of the season, containing MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor. They look to be rounding into form on both sides of the ball. Per Evan Abrams, since 2004 Thanksgiving road favorites are 25-1 SU and 20-6 ATS. Favorites have dominated overall on Turkey Day in that time period, going 51-9 SU and 40-20 ATS. Patrick Mahomes is 14-2 SU when playing indoors, and I'm not buying that this Cowboys defense is fixed after two improved performances (over hopeless Raiders and clunky Eagles offenses). Dallas is also banged up- WR George Pickens and 3 starting DBs are 'questionable' to play in this game, and LT Tyler Guyton is 'doubtful.' The sleeping giants are waking up. Play KC.

My first instinct when I saw this Kansas City-Dallas game I thought was the Cowboys and the over. The Chiefs are not a good road team, having lost their last three to Jacksonville, Denver, and Buffalo. The Chiefs have to be the best 6-5 team in the history of football, or at least in the imagination of respected oddsmakers all over the world. I think the Cowboys end the Chiefs fantasy with the win. The Cowboys have won and covered their last two games. Their Eagles comeback win was electric; now they get to do it again. Prove who you are, Dallas. The Cowboys have the No. 1 offense in the NFL, getting 387 yards per game. Cowboys win.

It's a little expensive with respect to the juice, but it's worth taking the 23.5 as opposed to 24.5. Patrick Mahomes has hit this completions number in 6 of 8 games and the matchup against the Cowboys should lead to similar results. The Cowboys Front 7 has certainly improved and the Chiefs are most likely to utilize the short area air attack as opposed to the run game. That will translate into extended and efficient drives where Mahomes can pile up the completions. Look for Dallas to put up some quick strike points as well which will hand the ball right back to Mahomes to slowly matriculate the ball downfield with his arm.

This is primarily a play on what we expect (see: above) to be a less enthusiastic passing game than what's being expected as well as Rice's injury status. The star receiver is playing with a banged-up hamstring and he was flexing/stretching on the field Sunday after going down before contact on multiple receptions. Kansas City might very well need him to produce if the game turns into a shootout and/or they're trailing and this thing could be done at half given how much work he does near the line of scrimmage. If the Chiefs are controlling this game at all, I'd expect them to limit the number of snaps Rice sees. And that means less opportunities for receptions.

The Cowboys are coming off a big comeback win, and the market is adjusting too much based on that result. Yes, the team rallied late, and it's likely the offense has some success in this matchup after it found some against an Eagles unit that had been playing great. But I don't think the market realizes how well the Chiefs played against a top-tier Colts team, with the early fluke interception making the game closer than it should've been. The Chiefs outgained Indy 494 yards to 255 and 33 first downs to 10, putting them on a different class from the Eagles. Since the Eagles were laying 3 to 3.5 last week, shouldn't KC be laying more? I think the 4.5 lookahead was accurate.