Everyone and their mother is on the Cowboys this week, and it makes sense. Dallas’ offense is tremendous, and it plays much better at home. There’s a contingent forgetting that Philadelphia is 8-2 for a reason, and it won this matchup 24-20 in Week 1 basically without Jalen Carter. The Eagles defense has only become more dominant, holding a similarly electric Lions offense to nine points last week. Nakobe Dean and Jaelan Phillips have a lot to do with that. One great showing against the Raiders is not enough for me to trust the Cowboys D just yet. This may be the AJ Brown breakout game, and while the absence of Lane Johnson will certainly be felt, the spread is meager enough to risk.

Don't look now but the Eagles defense has held two good offenses in check the last two weeks limiting the Packers to 10 points and the Lions to just 9. However there's noise in those figures when you consider the game at Lambeau was played in frigid conditions and last Sunday they faced the Lions in gale force winds. In steps a Cowboys offense playing at elite level and they'll challenge not only the Eagles stop unit but an offense that's struggled to find consistency. I know it's not the best of the number but there's still a bet to made here with Dallas at home catching the 3.

If the Cowboys have any shot, and I think they do have one, they certainly have to score at least 23 points. And they generally have been lights out offensively at home other than a puzzling MNF loss to Arizona in Week 9. The Philly defense has looked fabulous of late, no doubt about it, but I think a few circumstances (indoor team outdoors, struggling Packers) played into that. Dallas is averaging the most PPG (29.6) overall in NFL history by a team with a losing record through 10 games. The game total Over is 6-1 in their past seven. Our model has Dallas right at 23. If Brandon Aubrey doesn't miss a kick, and he rarely does even from 60+, then I think OK.

All season long the Philadelphia Eagles have picked and chooses when to unleash Jalen Hurts arm. He broke out in a big way in wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the second matchup against the Giants. When Hurts arm is on display it’s not a surprise that DeVonta Smith has benefitted. After just one catch for eight yards against the Lions, look for Smith to get back on track. Play his over against Dallas.

Three of the last four meetings between these two have stayed under the tonight. If this game was in Philadelphia, this would be an under play. The Eagles will look to control this game and lean heavily on their run game and limit possessions. However, when playing in Dallas, three of the last four games have gone over the total. The Cowboys are averaging 35 points at home and Philadelphia, and their opponents, are only averaging 21 points on the road. Dallas’ defense is also allowing 31 points at home while also allowing over 419 yards of total offense and 414 of offense themselves.

DeVonta Smith caught one pass for eight yards on Sunday night. But I expect a bounceback game here for Smith for multiple reasons. Setting aside the A.J. Brown drama with the Eagles, Smith has the better schematic matchup on Sunday. The Cowboys play a high rate of zone coverage, and Smith is targeted more and has a higher yards per route run against zone coverage. I also think the Cowboys' run defense has improved with the additions they made at the trade deadline. So I think the Eagles will be forced to throw more here. This is a very attainable line for Smith to fly over on Sunday.

The Eagles defense limited him in Week 1 but that was his worst game of the season and also his first game with this offense. Since then, he's put on a career year, 2nd in the league in receiving yards. The Eagles defense does rank 2nd best in DVOA vs. the #1 WR but luckily, Ceedee Lamb is back and will certainly help to stretch the defense. Pickens is putting up #1 WR numbers, but we can feel better about calling him a #2 when you consider the Eagles are allowing the 5th most targets a game to the #2 WR. He's averaging 90+ yards a game, leading the team in deep targets and has cashed this line in all but two of 10 games.

Believe it or not, the Dallas defense is improving. They're getting healthier and better. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense continues to be a problem. The Cowboys running game should have a good day and that will open things up for Prescott, Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson through the air. Getting the hook is a big deal here and I don't mind paying the juice for it - Although, I do believe Dallas has a great chance to win this game outright.

Right tackle Lane Johnson is out, which hurts an already struggling Eagles’ offense. The Eagles rank 24th in success rate and average just 5.1 yards per play. While Philly’s defense remains elite, this is a tough challenge against a loaded and healthy Dallas attack. The Cowboys’ offense has been prolific at home in all but one game. Look for the reinvigorated Cowboys to keep it close in this must-win spot.

The Cowboys are coming off a dominant win on Monday night, but this is the game that matters as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their upgraded defense should perform well against an Eagles offense that has struggled all year, ranking 24th in yards per play, and that will be without Lane Johnson, who has been critical to Philly's success. The Eagles' defense has been outstanding in recent weeks, but a healthy Dallas O-line might be better than what the Lions and Packers currently have, and Dak Prescott should have success at home. This line has to get down to 3, and I think the Cowboys could win outright.