While Cincinnati has played much better at home this season, its defense straight up stinks to the point it’s among the worst in NFL history. The Bengals offensive line is terrible, Ja’Marr Chase is suspended and Trey Hendrickson is out for the game. The Patriots are actually overrated based purely on their strength of schedule, weakest in the NFL. New England has finally realized it must feature TreVeyon Henderson, and now Rhamondre Stevenson is back to keep the rookie fresh. The Pats are 5-0 ATS on the road this season, while the Bengals are 2-5 ATS at home. With the hook erased, let’s play New England.

Still missing QB Joe Burrow is one thing. Missing WR Ja'Marr Chase for a suspension complicates matters. That means New England CB Chris Gonzalez, who has yet to yield a TD pass all season, is free to mark WR Tee Higgins. New England has not faltered SU away from home this year. Covering the seven points is another issue. But the Bengals have permitted a minimum 27 points snce Week 2, and the Pats welcome back RB Rhamondre Stevenson from injury hiatus to pair with white-hot QB Drake Maye.

Ja’Marr Chase will miss this game due to suspension, which opens up at least 10-15 more targets for Bengals wideouts. New England’s best DB Christian Gonzalez will likely be covering Tee Higgins. This should give Iosivas some opportunities for catches from the slot. Iosivas is over this mark in 3 of his last 6 games even with Chase in the lineup, and has seen 4+ targets in 5 of his last 6. The +7.5 Bengals are likely to be playing from behind and go pass-heavy, so I think Iosivas can clear this modest total.

The Patriots head into a matchup with one of the worst defenses of all time, and the Bengals have been particularly bad defending tight ends, with the 80.8 yards per game they allow to the position more than 11 yards worse than every team but the Colts (72.6). Hunter Henry should have a solid game, and his yardage prop also feels low, but I'll attack this defense instead with Hooper after the TE2 was cleared from a concussion. He's on the field plenty (50%+ snap share in last nine games) and has 10+ yards in 7 of 10 games, with one catch of at least 10 yards in six separate weeks. He should hit this Over on one play.

Without one of their star playmakers on offense, the Bengals made themselves much easier to defend. On top of that, they're facing one of the best defenses in the NFL in the New England Patriots, which was going to be a tougher task in its own right. With the way the Patriots are humming offensively, expect them to find little to no resistance vs Cincinnati.

The Bengals are a tough sell at the moment, especially with word that Joe Burrow is going to wait another week (likely on Thursday vs. Baltimore) to return to active duty. Top target Ja'Marr Chase is also on suspension this week in what might be QB Joe Flacco's last-ever start in the NFL. Flacco has had ups and downs but did beat the Steelers here in Cincy last month, while the Patriots are now being asked to lay more than a TD on the road. Seven wins in a row or not, the Patriots could have trouble pulling clear if Flacco can give it one more shot as he did vs. Pittsburgh last month. Play Bengals

Caesar’s. This TreVeyon Henderson bet could wind up being infuriating, but I’m going to look to capitalize on the rookie’s strong play. With Antonio Gibson done for the season, and Rhamondre Stevenson missing three games, Henderson was excellent in a workhorse role. Now with Stevenson expected back, I’m still banking on the Patriots looking to get their dynamic playmaker the ball. I’m not expecting Stevenson, who is listed as questionable, to assume a big workload - especially as the bruiser was quite inefficient before his injury (3.4 yards per carry). The Bengals allow the third most running back rush attempts (25.6), and are without Ja’Mar Chase on offense. I’m expecting the Patriots to dominate time of possession, giving Henderson plenty of opportunity for touches.

Hunter Henry has been feast or famine this season, with several games significantly over this receiving line and several games significantly under this line. This is a game and a matchup for Henry to exceed this line and potentially smash this line. We know we want to target tight ends against the Bengals. The Bengals give up the most receiving yards and the most touchdowns to tight ends this season. I'll be betting Henry's over receiving yards and his ATD, and I'm playing him in DFS.

Drake Maye has cashed this over in all but one of the last seven games and all but three of 11 this season. He's averaging just under 258 and is now facing a historically bad Bengals defense allowing the 2nd most attempts and the 4th most yards (264+). Joe Burrow possibly being under center for the Bengals helps us even more, game script-wise. Even with the blowout wins and the wins where he played a bit sloppy, Maye has cashed this.

Stefon Diggs has seen his route participation grow to a very healthy 89% last week which is a very healthy number. The Patriots are not afraid to air the ball out and with Joe Burrow looking likely to suit up, this could be an optimal game environment. Diggs has 19 targets over his last two games and is facing a Bengals secondary ranked 32nd in Defensive Passing DVOA, 32nd in EPA Per Dropback, 31 in Success Rate, and 29th in EPA/1st Reads. Simply put, this matchup can not be any better for Diggs.

The fact of the matter is Hollins just keeps getting on the field for the Patriots, seeing 85 percent of the snaps against the Jets in Week 11. His run blocking is so valuable to what the Pats want to do and he's been an extremely reliable target for fellow UNC alum Drake Maye this year, so I expect he'll be back out getting looks again this week against a porous Bengals unit that sits pretty easily as the worst defense football. Hollins has 15 targets in his last two games, is an outstanding deep threat and if we get Joe Burrow back for this one, it's just a bonus because it makes the game more of a shootout.

Several factors are at play for me to like Chase Brown's receiving line over, and I'll likely ladder it. First, since Samaje Perine has been out the last two weeks, Brown's routes run and target share have skyrocketed. Brown has 28 and 75 receiving yards the past two weeks without Perine. Perine is doubtful for Sunday. Next, Ja'Marr Chase is out Sunday. I believe Brown will have to play the receiver role more, similar to Christian McCaffery's role when the 49ers' receivers were depleted. The Patriots have a tough run defense, but they give up the most receptions and the 8th most receiving yards to running backs this year. Finally, Joe Burrow was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. His return would boost Brown's receiving.

I liked the over in Bengals-Patriots anyway, because I think Cincy, even without Ja'Marr Chase out via his SpitGate 2.0 suspension, can move the ball and score with their passing offense. But with the news that Joe Burrow practiced fully on Wednesday and the market moves that are starting to follow, I'm jumping all over anything below 50. I would be pretty surprised if he played, but a full practice on Wednesday can be indicative of a surprise early return. And in that case I'd love to have this over under 50 in my pocket, which I do now.

The Patriots are massive favorites here with Ja'Marr Chase suspended, and while I can't bring myself to lay more than a touchdown on the road at this point, I do think the Patriots score a lot of points, because every team scores a lot of points against Cincy. The worst DVOA defense ever through 10 games has allowed 27+ points in nine straight and 30+ in four straight while facing the Jets, Bears and Steelers (twice). Those first two teams even had 500+ yards of offense. The Patriots have scored 23+ in every game during their current eight-game winning streak, and they're on extra rest after playing last Thursday. With no weather concerns, Drake Maye should have a big day.

Entering Week 12, the Bengals own the worst defense in the history of DVOA. Led by Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs and TreVeyon Henderson, the Pats should put up at least 27 points here. New England had extra rest and will be highly motivated to stay on top in the race for the AFC’s top seed. Reeling Cincy won’t have its top threat after Ja’Marr Chase was suspended.