Vele was on the field for 87% of the offensive snaps last game. Coming out of the bye week, I expect the Saints to involve Vele in the offense. With WRs Ja’Lynn Polk, Bub Means, and Trey Palmer all on IR, Vele may now legitimately be the Saints WR2. Vele has yet to log a game with 20+ receiving yards this season, yet books have his total set above 25 yards here. I think that is telling, and I expect him to get his most usage of the season so far in this game.

After what I saw from Cousins in his start against the Dolphins, I feel obligated to fade him. He threw for just 173 pass yards on 31 attempts. Without WR1 Drake London, he is going to struggle again. He has no mobility, and is likely going to play a very conservative game plan. The Saints defense is better than perceived. I don’t see Cousins passing for 200+ in this game.

We know that Michael Penix is now out for the Falcons, and top wideout Drake London is sidelined. No matter…should the 2-win Saints really be favored? We can take our chances with the Falcons, who in truth might lose little with Kirk Cousins in at QB for the erratic Penix. The offense revolves around Bijan Robinson anyway and he is good to go for this afternoon. The Saints are off of a win at Carolina and a bye week, and Tyler Shough might be a slight upgrade at QB from Spencer Rattler, but this offense has real limitations, and it's about time for the Falcons (who have played in bad luck) to end their numbing six-game skid. Play Falcons

New Orleans has the rest advantage here, coming off their bye. The Falcons are without their Michael Penix and Drake London. This is certainly a weird line as New Orleans shouldn’t really be favored against anyone but the Falcons offense has been very inconsistent. The public is all over Atlanta and Kirk Cousins and they lost five in a row. However, the Saints have won five of the last seven in this series.

Atlanta sure looks like one of those quit teams under a lame-duck coach rather like the Giants. Kirk Cousins resembles age 87, not 37, and that pains me to say as he's a west Michigander and Sparty. "You like that!" No Drake London, either. A couple of defensive regulars landed on IR Saturday. This is screaming "tank the rest of the way" and we fire our coach on Black Monday situation. The Saints are clearly awful -- perhaps not quite Pelicans bad; sorry for you NOLA folks as it's such a fun town -- but out of a bye and rookie QB Tyler Shough has shown some modest promise.

The Atlanta Falcons once were 3-2, have now dropped five straight games. Each of their last three were extremely close calls losing to the Patriots by a point, and consecutive overtime losses. For Kirk Cousins the mentality changes, from a backup spot start to knowing he is going to finish out the season for the Falcons. Both matchups last season against the Saints were decided by a field goal or less. One of Cousins last 300 yard games was at New Orleans last November. Take Atlanta in what should come down to the final drive.

Looks like everyone at Sportsline likes the Saints as home favorites off their bye week. I concur. Kirk Cousins looked bad in his lone start this season, throwing 21/31 for 173 yards and 0 TDs. Without WR1 Drake London, this Falcons offense is utterly one-dimensional. Atlanta will likely look to go run heavy with stud RB Bijan Robinson, but the Saints actually have a top 10 defensive rushing DVOA. The Falcons look dead in the water, and are coming off an OT loss to the Panthers in which they gave up 450 passing yards to Bryce Young. The 2-8 Saints are favored for a reason. Fade the Falcons.

This is the Super Bowl for the Saints. Their season is shot but beating the hated Falcons in front of the home crowd at the SuperDome is a top priority for this team. Kellen Moore has had this team playing hard all season and now they've had an extra week to prepare for this division rival. The Falcons are a mess and Raheem Morris continues to show that he is not built to be a good Head Coach. A focused Saints team is favored for a reason in this one and I'm fine laying anything less than a field goal.

The Falcons take the field without QB Michael Penix Jr and his main pass collaborator, WR Drake London. The Saints have not reached 20 points in the past five games and this week released veteran WR Brandin Cooks at his request. While Atlanta's defense has backslid after leading the league through six weeks, reinforcements from an injury layoff could help turn back the clock. The Falcons likely will stick to the ground -- and keep the minutes ticking down -- seeing as how RB Bijan Robinson averaged 116 rushing yards in the prevous four meetings.

So far this season Cousins has had weak velocity on his throws, hasn't challenged downfield much and has been very sensitive to pass rush pressure. Cousins averaged a weak 5.6 yards per pass attempt versus Miami, and that was actually sort of good for him. To go over this line at that average he would need to throw 37 passes. I doubt that happens, especially since the Falcons will likely dial up a lot of runs with their RBs. And here's a wacky stat: The Saints have "held" three of the past four QBs they've faced to 172 or fewer yards because opponents have run on them and/or found other ways to score.

Saints No. 1 wideout Chris Olave has cleared this number in five straight games, and now he has a quarterback in Tyler Shough who's more willing to attack downfield. They connected on a 62-yard bomb in Week 10 at Carolina. The Falcons rank 19th in explosive passes allowed (completions of 20-plus yards). Last week against Carolina, Atlanta's tired defense allowed six completions of 25-plus yards. Look for Olave to make at least one big play at home.

This is not a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons after playing two straight overtime losses. Their defense was on the field for a total of 149 plays, and they are now basically playing their third consecutive road game. Atlanta had an early bye in Week 5 and is now playing its seventh consecutive week. New Orleans ranks 13th in consistency, while the Falcons rank 32nd and will be missing key starters on both sides of the ball. The Saints have two weeks to practice and install game plans. Kellen Moore's squad will be well-prepared following the bye week, during which teams are 14-8 this season.

The Falcons have lost five straight and won't have quarterback Michael Penix or wideout Drake London. London might be the most valuable receiver in the NFL, considering Atlanta's lack of quality options behind him. Kirk Cousins is a statue and represents a downgrade from the inconsistent Penix. The Falcons look tired from their brutal travel stretch; they've allowed 61 points in the past two games. Since their 6-3 start last season, the Falcons are 5-13 straight-up, including 0-5 vs. division foes. Saints rookie Tyler Shough is coming off a solid showing (128.9 passer rating) in his team's 17-7 road upset of Carolina before the bye.

The Falcons' season for all intents and purposes ended on Sunday with an OT loss to the Panthers at home that knocked Michael Penix out for the season and Drake London out for at least a week. Kirk Cousins did not play well in relief of Penix, and his limited mobility makes the Falcons offense easier to defend for the Saints. The Falcons are in a brutal spot after back-to-back OT games (one in Berlin) that could have their defense gassed in this matchup, while the Saints are coming off a bye. The spot or the injury situation alone should make the Saints favored, and both in tandem might mean this line should be Saints -3.