The precipitation might subside by kickoff, but the wind gusts are expected to remain throughout this matchup. Tampa Bay's offense continues to endure the absence of injured RB Bucky Irving, along with ailing WRs. Buffalo has scratched TE Dalton Kincaid, its third leading receiver. Both squads are above average in points allowed -- 11th for the Bills, 15th for the Bucs. Tampa Bay had recent games with 33 and 36 points. Given the conditions and missing pieces, another is possible.

Josh Allen has rushed for five touchdowns in five home games. He's missing one of his top targets in tight end Dalton Kincaid. With the inclement weather in Buffalo, I expect Allen to rush for a score vs. Tampa Bay.

The Bills played about as poorly as they could last week in Miami. Now they return home to face a Bucs team that just isn't the same on offense without some of their top weapons. I expect a much better effort out of Buffalo's offense and I don't think a banged up Baker Mayfield will be able to keep up. Bet up to -6.5.

Grabbing the last 47 on the board. This total is dropping due to weather reports expecting 20+ mph winds, and possible snow/rain in Buffalo. Both the Bills and Bucs have struggled offensively in recent weeks. Buffalo rely heavily on their run game, but Tampa has a top-5 rush defense. Baker Mayfield seems like he might be playing hurt, as he hasn’t scrambled once in the last three games. The Bucs scored 23 or less in each of those, and I’m not sure they’ll fare much better in the ugly Buffalo conditions. This should be a run-heavy game that stays under the total.

When you look at how the Bills play offense, it's a bit inconsistent outside of James Cook's running ability. Now, Cook will have a Cook-like day vs the Bucs, but defensively I like the scrappiness of the Tampa offensive attack. Look for them to play better than they did against the Patriots last week and keep this one close.

The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss against the Dolphins, and I expect them to be focused for this matchup as they try to stay in the divisional race. The defense should be healthier than I expected, while the Bucs are still missing key players on offense. This game could come down to the rushing attacks with windy and wet weather in the cards, but the Bills defense could have T.J. Sanders back from IR to help. I also like fading a Bucs team that isn't used to playing in sub-40 temperatures, especially when I think this line would already be too light in ideal conditions. Let's get a nice bounceback from Buffalo here.

Khalil Shakir has been Josh Allen’s best receiver this season and in a matchup where Buffalo’s offense will be without Dalton Kinkaid, there is likely to be an ever larger role for Shakir. Buffalo will be facing a Tampa defense that has been a significant pass funnel partly due to their strength of a run defense. It is possible this game could feature extra passing volume as both offenses are explosive with elite QBs and not afraid to throw the ball. There is potentially strong winds forecasted along with snow precipitation, however weather is often overblown (pun intended) and Shakir operates close to the line of scrimmage with a low ADOT. I’m also confident that Josh Allen can still pass effectively in inclement weather.