Original plan was to stay away Thursday night, especially considering the Patriots cost us last week. However, it’s an island game, and it was clear watching the Jets that they simply cannot score without substantial help. They are not about to get two return touchdowns on this New England special teams unit. In an entire game against the Browns, they managed one completion over 4 yards, which resulted in their lone offensive TD. New York doesn’t force turnovers defensively, and it can’t pass. The Pats have a defensive answer for the one thing the visitors can do: run. They have scored 28+ points in three of the last four games (24 in the odd Falcons game); will the Jets score more than 14?

I believe there is a great way to make money on Justin Fields tonight, just not sure I'm the one to do it. Generally leave the NFL to those guys who spend their entire year on it. Might be my least favorite to bet, largely as you can't really get an edge due to so many sharp bettors -- a few of whom are SL experts. I like Will Brinson's Under 26.5-yard longest on Fields because no Garrett Wilson. I was hoping for an INT prop because I think Aaron Glenn is just itching to pull Fields. But this is so crazy cheap for a TD pass. The Little Giants ran the Annexation of Puerto Rico play to success. Maybe the Little Jets have similar.

I just don’t see this game being very exciting. Take away the Jets two special teams TDs last week, and you’ll see they did almost nothing on offense. I don’t see them moving the ball efficiently against Mike Vrabel’s squad on a short week. New York did trade away their two best defensive players, but I’m expecting their remaining cast to play with pride against a division rival here. This should be a run-heavy game that stays under the total. Pats win 24-13 is my score prediction.

For the Jets to have a chance, they're probably going to need more than the 54 yards passing from Justin Fields and the mere 169 yards of total offense that was good enough to get them past the Browns last week. Punt and kickoff return TDs as in the first quarter last week aren't likely to recur tonight at Gillette Stadium. But the J-Men have won two straight and have been close in other losses this season, five of them by one score. Away from home, they've either won or been within six points at the end of all away or neutral-site games. Granted, the emerging Patriots have won seven straight for Mike Vrabel, but they've cut it close the past two weeks. Play Jets

Treyveon Henderson is an explosive speed merchant and last week we saw that burst on full display when he got to the 2nd level against the Bucs. His big play potential can't be denied but Mike Vrabel doesn't always see him as a heavy volume option in the backfield. This is a short week against a bad run defense; there will be opportunities for other backs to get touches as well. Henderson might have a few big carries but he'll need to do it with a lesser workload than odds makers believe.

Unloading a couple of key players did not hurt the Jets last week. They recorded their second consecutive SU win. New England is rolling big-time but its margins of victory the past two outings were one and five points. New York has ratcheted up its ground game, with Breece Hall accumulating 39 carries in those two Ws. More of the same could keep the clock running and limit the Pats' snaps. A division rivalry rarely carries this large of a line. The number opened at 10, then shot up -- too much, in our book.

“Pop” Douglas is starting to find his rhythm with Drake Maye. He is over this mark in 4 of his last 5 games, and had a 25+ yard catch in each. Douglas is an explosive play threat that I expect Maye to look for against a man coverage-heavy Jets defense. New England will be without WR Kayshon Boutte, TE Austin Hooper & RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Their absences should open up the target share enough for Douglas to clear this receiving yards total.

Dating back to his days with the Lions, Aaron Glenn's aggressive, man-heavy defensive scheme has enabled mobile quarterbacks to run for substantial yards. Last week, Dillon Gabriel, who had rushed for 30 yards in four previous starts, ran for 54 yards on five carries. Baker Mayfield ran for 44 yards against the Jets, Dak Prescott ran for 28, Bo Nix ran for 24 and Josh Allen ran for 59. Look for Drake Maye, who leads all QBs in scrambles, to run for at least 25 yards.

I rarely play RB receiving props as they are super volatile, however this one makes a lot of sense. We are getting a friendly number here as Hall has had at least 14 receiving yards in 7/9 games this season and has averaged 30.9 receiving yards per game through his career. The Patriots also sport the NFL’s best run defense and are 12.5 point favorites. We’re very likely to see a trailing game script with the Jets playing from behind. New England has surrendered the fewest rushing yards to enemy RBs this season, in addition to giving up the most targets and 6th most receiving yards to the position. The Jets will be without Garrett Wilson tonight as well.

There are almost ZERO passing props available for Jets quarterbacks right now because, technically, Aaron Glenn hasn't said who is going to start. We assume it's going to be Justin Fields, but there's a very real possibility he surprises everyone with Tyrod Taylor under center tonight. At the very least, we know Fields is on a short leash this evening. And, in an ideal world for this prop, Fields starts and then gets benched or doesn't start but gets used in some rushing packages. Fields has four games this season with less than 54 passing YARDS, making this prop way too long against a good defense. We have multiple outs here and I'm quite frankly a little surprised to see this still sitting out there.

It's easy to look at this line and fall inlove with the favorite and I'm legitmately trying to find paths for the Jets to be competitive. I just don't see it. The Patriots stock continues to be high, and perhaps overvalued, but getting the depleted Jets on a short week isn't the spot where I'm looking to fade the favorite. I think the Patriots will be able to put up enough points behinds their potential MVP quarterback and I don't see much coming from the Jets offense, mostly thanks to a terrible QB situation. No back door covers in this one as we see the Patriots slowly pull away.

Since Rhamondre Stevenson got banged up, Henderson's seen three games with double-digit carries (10, 14, 14). In those games, he's carried the ball 38 times with an average of 7.3 yards per play. He's got 3+ runs of longer than 14.5 yards and this number is lower than other options on the market by a full two yards. It's a little juicy, but he should pop at least one 15-yard carry in this matchup.

Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) is out, while Terrell Jennings (knee) is questionable. It should mean another big workload for explosive rookie TreVeyon Henderson, who ripped off 55- and 69-yard TD runs last week at Tampa Bay. The Jets' run defense got worse when Quinnen Williams was traded, and over the past three games New York is allowing 5.1 yards per carry. The Jets rank 21st in explosive rushes allowed, and have allowed the eighth-most yards after contact. When the Jets have to respect an opponent's passing game, their defense has been highly vulnerable to long runs.

The Jets used two kick-return touchdowns to beat Cleveland. They averaged 3.6 yards per play. Now they face a New England defense giving up 3.5 yards per carry at home. That will force Justin Fields to produce, and he won't have Garrett Wilson to throw to. Look for the undermanned and tired Jets' defense -- which was on the field for 70 plays vs. the Browns, giving up 23 first downs -- to wear down on a short week and give up 27-plus points.

The Jets are likely to be playing from behind for a significant portion of this game, and I expect Hall's rushing volume to be limited as a result. He's been able to post big numbers with low volume against the Dolphins and Cowboys, but this Patriots rush defense is a different beast altogether. Not only are they allowing an NFL-best 57.5 rushing yards to running backs per game, but Sean Tucker's 53 yards last week is the first time any RB has cracked 50 rushing yards against them. That includes giving up 49 to James Cook and 46 to Bijan Robinson in tight games, which this is not expected to be.

This line has been flying since it opened closer to 10 and it doesn't like it will stop moving between now and kickoff on Thursday. It's just a horrible matchup for the Jets, coming off a luck box win at home in Week 10, going to play a white-hot division opponent on a short week. The Patriots don't let anyone run and the Jets can't pass the ball. New England should get a lead early and feed their running backs, forcing Justin Fields to drop back a ton which won't lead to anything good for the Jets.

The Jets enter this matchup on a two-game winning streak, but nothing about the win over Cleveland should give us confidence in their offense. Without a 42-yard screen pass touchdown the Jets had zero net passing yards, and it's the third time this season they've been under 55 net passing yards. The Patriots rank fourth in yards per rush allowed, and they don't have to worry about getting beat by the pass in this game. So the question becomes whether they score enough points to cover. A bad Browns offense got one fewer first down against the new-look Jets defense than the Bengals, so I don't think that'll be a problem with Drake Maye look to make an MVP statement in primetime.