Schultz has been one of the lone bright spots for this struggling Texans offense. He went for 9 receptions on 10 targets for 98 yards last week against Seattle, and should be a frequent target of C.J Stroud in this game against a banged up Niners defense without stud LB Fred Warner. Houston remains without WRs Nico Collins & Christian Kirk, so Schultz should get enough volume to clear this receiving yards total for a 3rd straight game.

The FG came for San Francisco after the injury report has the DL decimated with Bryce Huff and Yetur Gross-Matos out. The idea being that’s what the 49ers needed to beat the Texans, like the Seahawks. Eh. The visitors are worth a play at +3. Houston will attack Mac Jones with regularity, which does cause concern considering its strength up front. Jones must protect the ball. However, Nico Collins and Christian Kirk are both out, severely limiting the Texans. The Niners have been successful regardless of their personnel due to Kyle Shanahan’s system, and they can eventually find holes in opposing defenses. Houston’s only wins are over Tennessee and Baltimore without Lamar Jackson, and it cannot get out of its own way in close games.

This encounter seems like a coin flip. The Texans’ offense is the guilty party for the team’s 3-4 SU record despite the league’s staunchest defense for points allowed. Complicating matters, top WR Nico Collins and capable sidekick Christian Kirk appear doomed to sit with injuries. QB C.J. Stroud has struggled enough with them in action. The Niners, though torn asunder by injuries, barely have missed a beat with QB Mac Jones standing in for Brock Purdy. No team claims more passing yards per game. Given Houston’s sorry state on offense, 20 points by San Fran should do the trick.

The Texans are down their top two wide receivers in this matchup, and that means Dalton Schultz should be peppered with targets. He went from five catches on six targets in three straight weeks to nine catches on 10 targets last week in the game Nico Collins left early due to injury. I'm not sure the 49ers can just focus on taking him away either as the Texans have talent at receiver in a pair of Day 2 rookies, but I expect Stroud to heavily target his most reliable weapon in a game I expect Houston to be playing from behind.

Sunday we have a matchup of prime time eyes just last week. Houston laid an egg in Monday Night football, while San Francisco shined creating a prime time inflation spot on the 49ers. Some teams struggle post bye week and that was the case for the Houston Texans. The offense assuredly may continue to struggle without key weapons at wide receiver including Nico Collins. Yet, I believe the Texans defense rises to the occasion winning the turnover battle and making things difficult for the 49ers. Take the Texans.

DraftKings. Woody Marks saw his highest snap share of the season last week at 63%, including 70% of pass plays. The Texans will be without wide receivers Nico Collins and Christian Kirk, for an already struggling passing offense. Marks should have space to produce against a 49ers defense that’s allowed 129 receiving yards to opposing running backs over the last three games. And without Fred Warner, the individual matchup for Marks against the 49ers linebackers is not nearly as daunting. I’d bet this up to over 18.5.

Texans safety Jalen Pitre, who plays a lot of snaps in the box, just posted nine combined tackles at Seattle. Now he gets a more favorable matchup vs. the 49ers. San Fran, led by Christian McCaffrey, creates 54.9 tackle opportunities per game -- one of the NFL's highest rates. Look for Pitre to rack up at least six combined tackles.

It is National Tight End Day Sunday, and the face of National Tight End Day is Mr. George Kittle. Every now and then, leaning into a narrative makes sense, like betting on David Montgomery scoring a touchdown earlier this month in his first trip back to his hometown of Cincinnati. While Kittle got a zero in the boxscore in his first game back last week, we know Kittle is a target monster in the redzone. I expect a bounce-back game for Kittle, and him to find the endzone on National Tight End Day.

The 49ers have gone 3-1 on the road this year and 5-2 overall, and Mac Jones has been a big part of it. However, I think the biggest factor has been Christian McCaffrey serving as a security blanket for whoever's quarterbacking. Brock Purdy is likely to sit out again this week with an injured toe, even though he practiced on Wednesday. George Kittle is back at tight end, which really opened up the running game last week against Atlanta. McCaffrey rushed for 129 yards and scored two TDs on the ground and also caught seven passes for 72 yards against the Falcons. He's the reason I am betting the 49ers to win this week.

Look, it's national tight end day and George Kittle is healthy. Is that a great handicap? No, but he's coming off a zero point zero weekend after an IR stint and is the godfather of this sacred football holiday. Fade tight ends this weekend at your own peril. Do not fade George Kittle.

The Texans suffered a brutal loss on Monday night with Nico Collins' concussion, and due to the timing of the game it seems unlikely he'll be available here. Even if Christian Kirk is able to return from injury, which is not a lock, I can't see how the Texans find offensive success against a 49ers defense that played extremely well Sunday considering the loss of Fred Warner the previous week. Atlanta was in a much better spot coming into that one than Houston is here, and the Texans haven't scored more than 19 or gained more than 271 yards in their four competitive matchups (throwing out the Titans debacle and beating up on Ravens backups).

The Texans have seen exactly two scenarios this season: dominate an uncompetitive roster (Titans, beat-up Ravens) and generate no offense against everyone else. Maybe you can argue the 49ers fit into the first category with all their injuries, but they haven't played like it, with the defense in particular rising to the challenge on Sunday after losing Fred Warner the previous week. With Nico Collins suffering a concussion in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, he's unlikely to be available here, so I don't know how Houston scores points. I see the 49ers closing as favorites in this game.