Extremely interesting setup in the Sunday afternoon showcase. The Cowboys enter with the best and worst units on the field in their offense and defense, respectively. The Broncos have been among the most successful teams this season, but when digging deeper, one wonders whether it’s been a bit flukey? Dak Prescott is the most important player in this game bringing in a 16-3 TD-INT ratio with the best completion rate of his career. Dallas has enough weapons to keep Denver’s strong secondary guessing, and ultimately, Bo Nix and this Broncos offense is not consistent enough to trust in what might be a back-and-forth game. Take the Cowboys with the hook and sprinkle something extra on the moneyline.

FanDuel. Courtland Sutton should find success in a matchup against the Cowboys secondary that’s without Trevon Diggs. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, and the third highest yards per route run to outside receivers.

B365 at -115. Despite a serious spike in volume, Jake Ferguson has stayed under this line in 4 of 7 games. His aDOT is 4.9 yards, and 46 of his 58 targets have been for less than 10 air yards. The Broncos rank 9th in DVOA against tight-ends (per FTN) and allow the fourth fewest receptions to the position.

I'm being dead serious in that Brandon Aubrey might kick a 75-yard field goal in that thin air of Denver. I mean, they will be in his range almost with a touchback on a kickoff. That dude is just bananas good. I wish we had O/U kicker points available as that I might go Over, and it's set at 8.5 at FanDuel. Three field goals is rather steep, though, even in the thin air. And I'm not sure Dallas doesn't get down big and has to go for TDs in the second half.

Not yet for us on any Dallas bandwagon, as recent romps past the troubled Jets and fading Commanders fail to convince. On the road, Dallas has lost three of four, the only success coming vs. the Jets, and including a loss two games ago at Carolina. Throughout his career, Dak Prescott has been to pile up stats vs. lighter-weight opposition but struggle otherwise. Though sometimes wondering if Denver's defense matches its hype, the Broncos do bring heat and have playmakers galore on the stop unit. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has been such a problem that even Jerry Jones has admitted as much. Here's a chance for Bo Nix to pick up where he left off in that 33-point 4th Q vs. the Giants. Play Broncos

Javonte Williams revenge game. The Broncos let Williams walk last season due to concerns surrounding his knee injuries. The Cowboys grabbed him on the cheap, and now he is the NFL’s 2nd leading rusher. Williams is over this combo line in 5/7 games this season, and may do it with rushing yards alone. This Broncos defense has not played nearly as well as expected, and they’ve been vulnerable against dynamic RB’s. I like the combo line because in the past 4 games, the Broncos allowed 30+ receiving yards to Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Cam Skateboo. Williams will make Denver regret that they didn’t re-sign him.

Jake Ferguson has six touchdowns in the last four games. The Dallas passing offense continues to stay hot, and Feguson is one of Dak Prescott's go-to targets, especially in the redzone. Now the Cowboys face the Broncos, who will offer difficult matchups for George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. The Broncos' defense gave up two touchdowns to the Giants' tight ends last week. What I like most about this pick (on National Tight End Day), is that the price for Ferguson ATD has stayed the same. I love getting the +165 price for Feguson to find the endzone again on Sunday.

Where the Cowboys pose a challenge to this Broncos defense is in their way to pepper multiple targets in the passing game. They are also able to run the ball enough to have an effective play action passing game. Defensively, it'll be about timely stops and facing an erratic Bo Nix, I think they'll be able to do just that.

On our NFL prop show I went on a rant about how we don't give Dak Prescott enough credit as a quarterback. He has been great this season, even without CeeDee Lamb. Fortunately for the Cowboys CeeDee Lamb is back and looks as good as ever. When healthy, Lamb has been sailing over this number. I expect Surtain to cover Lamb at times, but the Cowboys move him around enough where I think he'll be lined up against other DBs as well. Either way, I expect this high total game (50+ combined points) to heavily involve this high powered passing attack which revolves around CeeDee Lamb.

Courtland Sutton is the Broncos’ clear No. 1 receiver but his production often depends on game script. Sunday, Denver faces a Dallas offense that ranks Top 5 in both passing and rushing efficiency. Look for Sutton to be heavily involved vs. Dallas’ leaky pass defense.

Evan Engram has seen his role and usage increase in recent weeks culminating in running a season high 43 routes last week against the Giants. Engram has been a safety valve for Bo Nix and the Broncos have been a pass first offense which is likely to be the case this week playing a Cowboys team capable of pushing Denver. Look for Engram to be Bo Nix’s safety blanket in what is an excellent matchup.

The Cowboys have found real momentum on offense — leading the league in yards per game and averaging over six yards per play. They’ve also been one of the most efficient teams in the red zone, scoring the second-most points per game (31.7). Dallas has hit this team total in all but one of its last six games, with Dak Prescott throwing at least three touchdowns in four straight. He ranks 3rd in DVOA vs. man coverage, facing a Denver defense that is fist in frequency of man coverage. The Broncos’ defense has been stout, but their Week 7 performance against the Giants exposed plenty of busted coverages and missed tackles. They've allowed the 7th highest red zone scoring % over the last three weeks.

This came up during a commercial break for our Early Edge NFL Preview show (live Wednesdays at 1p ET on CBS Sports Network). I love the Cowboys in this matchup but was focused on the spread early in the week and whether 3.5 would be available, but this total may be the better play. The Broncos have surrendered 26+ first downs to the Colts, Chargers and Giants, so I think their elite status has largely been built on pummeling broken offenses like the Titans, Jets and Bengals a few weeks ago. The Cowboys are unquestionably elite on offense and have gotten a lot healthier as well, so a 30-point performance wouldn't surprise me here.

The Broncos won their fourth straight game thanks to a wild comeback, but they simply aren't playing well right now. The offense has struggled outside of the Bengals game and looked incapable of going downfield at all for seven quarters against the Jets and Giants before the comeback. That leaves a shaky Cowboys defense less prone to costing them this game. The Broncos defense is thought to be elite, but they've dominated broken offenses while giving up 26+ first downs to the Colts, Chargers and now Giants. The Cowboys have a top-tier offense capable of having similar success and covering in a shootout if needed or winning this game outright.