Intriguing matchup here with the Chargers getting back Quentin Johnson, who completely changes the route tree offensively, and the Colts down multiple key players, including Josh Downs. Most concerning for Los Angeles is its rough offensive line, which could pose a problem, but the return of Khalil Mack should even that up a bi ton the other side. The Chargers have a huge advantage at kicker (yes, really, with a spread this tight), and Justin Herbert should be able to take advantage of a patchwork Colts secondary. Indianapolis only has one win against a projected playoff team this season, and this is a tough spot on the road.

Both teams looked destined for the AFC Playoffs. This is a spot where I think this point total is off by 2-3 points. Both quarterbacks are playing well, and both offenses are balanced and explosive. In the end, I expect this point total to finish north of 50 points.

The Indianapolis Colts have been consistent from an offensive stand point where they have scored twenty or more points in every game this season. They are actually averaging twenty five points per game. A big reason Daniel Jones has success has been their rookie tight end Tyler Warren. Warren has not had less then thirty eight yards receiving and his fewest targets has been four. Take the rookie tight end to have another big game today against the Chargers.

Herbert finally connected with McConkey for a big game last week, with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 100 yards & a TD. I expect him to keep that momentum rolling this week, against a Colts secondary that is injured and undermanned. Last week, Cardinals backup QB Jacoby Brissett threw for 300+ yards against Indy, and hooked up with WR Zay Jones for 79 receiving yards. The Colts allowed 20+ yard pass plays to 6 different Cardinals. I think they are liable to get lit up by Herbert and McConkey.

Herbert is over this passing yards total in 3/6 games this season, and gets an excellent matchup this week. Indy’s secondary is decimated with injury. CB Charvarious Ward was just placed on IR following a concussion, and top-tier slot corner Kenny Moore is ‘questionable’ to play as he deals with an achilles injury. With other DB’s like Jaylon Jones & Mike Hilton sidelined as well, this Colts defense could be in trouble, especially if Moore doesn’t play. Herbert got some momentum rolling last week against a soft Dolphins defense, throwing 29/38 for 264 yards & 2 TDs. I think he can put up a similar stat line here against a super thin Colts secondary.

Having been a previous Fantasy owner of Daniel Jones, I believe he and the Colts are utter frauds. Hey, good for him if he found something in Indy, but I'm not buying whatsoever. A pretty soft schedule likely has played a big role. L.A.'s defense got a double boost this week the activation off injured reserve of Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman. The Colts are down a few key guys in their second trip to SoFi Stadium this year. They lost the first.

The Colts have the No. 1 scoring offense and a top-five scoring defense yet enter this game as underdogs. And there's a good reason, with key players injured on both sides of the ball. Josh Downs and Charvarius Ward are two excellent players at their positions, and while the Colts may have enough in the passing attack to remain effective, I'm not sure that's the case at corner, where Kenny Moore is coming back from an Achilles injury with the team's CB's issues, potentially too early. The return of Khalil Mack is massive for the Chargers' defense, and with it, we may be getting the better defense, passing game and home-field advantage as short favorites.

Justin Herbert has thrown 155 times over the past four games, clearing this prop total three times. He's facing a Colts' team with a banged-up secondary. Indy's opponents have passed 44, 36, 41 and 38 times the past four weeks. In fact, opponents have thrown 64 percent of the time against the Colts, the NFL's second-highest rate. With the Chargers missing their top two running backs, look for Herbert to throw early and often.

The Colts -- particularly league-leading rusher Jonathan Taylor -- received some unwelcome news Saturday. L.A. activated stellar LBs Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman off injured reserve. Both have been rehabbing since Week 3. After two games, the Chargers ranked ninth in rush defense largely because of this pair. During their absence, they gave up the 27th most. Taylor has made QB Daniel Jones look awesome. Now the veteran might be put in uneasy pass situations. On defense, Indy's secondary was further thinned Saturday when ace CB Charvarious Ward went on I.R. The bubble appears about to burst on the Colts, at least for one weekend.

The Colts' injury report is bleak, while the Chargers' injury report is showing some promise. Indy's banged-up secondary is something Justin Herbert can exploit, especially with Quentin Johnston expected to return. Journeyman Jacoby Brissett just threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns at Indianapolis. LA ranks No. 6 in pass efficiency defense and will pose a stiff test for the resurgent Daniel Jones.

This line is at BetMGM and it's notable that the line is 54.5 at DK and 59.5 at FD. Vidal's rush attempt line is 13.5 and that shouldn't be surprising to anyone after last week's performance. Yes, the Week 6 matchup against Miami was as good as it gets, but the Colts are not an elite rush defense and this is a pretty soft line. Per Jacob Gibbs, Vidal averaged more yards after contact than all RBs other than Jonathan Taylor in Week 6 and the Colts are also a bottom five team in yards allowed before contact. Great recipe for Kimani Vidal to keep it going.

The Colts will play their second consecutive road game in Los Angeles (Week 4 loss) after two straight home tilts. They are currently ranked fourth in net yards per play while facing the 29th hardest schedule. In contrast, the Chargers are ranked 10th in NYPP while playing against the 17th hardest slate. Daniel Jones will have difficulty throwing against the Chargers, who rank second in opponent passer rating (73.7). The Chargers' brilliant coaching staff knows Indianapolis can't run wild if they want to win this game. The Colts have scored 71 points in their last two games and now hit the road. This is a strong system that supports the home team.

Justin Herbert averages 25.8 rushing yards per game. Most importantly, Herbert has gone over 15.5 rushing yards in four of six games this season (67% hit rate). Herbert has exceeded his rushing yards in 7 of his last nine home games, and has sailed over 15.5 rushing yards in 13 of his last 21 indoor games since 2023. He had just one rush for three yards last week. The Colts' defense has allowed quarterbacks to run, with Bo Nix gaining 20 yards and Jacoby Brissett rushing for 19 yards on only three carries. Play all the way up to 20.5 rush yards.

I'm buying low on the Chargers. I know it was only Miami but the offense played better overall than it did in losses to the Commanders and Giants. It's not easy to fix injuries on the offensive line and while that will be an issue all season, I like what I saw last week. The Colts have been impressive this season, although they are just 1-1 on the road with the win coming over lowly Tennessee. I'll back the Chargers to win a close game at home.