B365. Going with the chalk on the defensive side of the ball. Roquan Smith is once again off to a fast start in the tackle department. With 25 combined tackles over the first two games, the linebacker is poised to repeat on his 2024 campaign in which he was second in the NFL with 9.6 tackles per game. This is an excellent matchup for him, as the Lions are already in the bottom 5 teams of tackles allowed per game, after pacing the NFL last season. The ultra efficient Ravens offense should also help Smith’s cause, with quick possessions. Smith should be intimately involved with defending the run and running backs in the passing game - Lions’ backs are averaging 32 combined touches per game.

Dead zone NFL line, so the question is whether the Ravens will win by a TD+. There’s reason to believe that will happen. Detroit's OL issues are legitimate, but with Baltimore down key players, it will not be as explosive up front. Still, the Ravens love to attack, and they should be able to get Jared Goff off his spot. Paramount is the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Jackson wrecks opponents when not pressured (which the Lions don't do much), and Henry could go nuts against Detroit’s front. Loved how both teams responded after Week 1, but the Ravens were far more impressive eviscerating a tough Browns defense. At home in primetime with the pressure of maintaining second-half leads, Baltimore gets it done.

I'm starting to sound like a broken record here, but I am in full fade mode on Andrews after what I've seen in 2025 thus far. One of the best TE's in Baltimore franchise history seems to be getting phased out. I'm on the Unders for him across the board on Monday night.

As mentioned in the other picks, Andrews' role in the Raven's offensive attack has diminished, and he is now apparently the fourth or fifth option at best for Lamar Jackson.

Andrews' role in the Baltimore offense has dwindled this season. He enters MNF with only four total targets thus far. It's hard for me to see him getting the targets he'd need to go over here. Also playing the Unders on Longest Reception and Receiving Yards.

Detroit rebounded after a rough showing in week one against the Packers. Baltimore’s defense allowed 497 total yards to the Bills then improved against Cleveland allowing 323. The Lions showed that they can still move the ball even without Ben Johnson calling the plays, putting up 52 points against Chicago. The Lions should find success as Baltimore’s secondary currently ranks 30th in the league through the first two games and the Lions defense has been holding their opponents to just over 100 yards rushing thus far.

Pretty fair price on Jahmyr Gibbs, who can score via rush or reception as opposed to fellow Detroit tailback David Montgomery, who almost never scores via catch. Baltimore hasn't been particularly good defensively yet and has allowed 3 rushing scores.

The Ravens are 25-11 to their team total Over in the past two seasons. Last week, this dynamic Baltimore offense was bottled up against the Browns for just 45 rushing yards, yet still exploded for 41 points. The Ravens haven’t forgotten losing to the Bills despite dropping 40 points on them in Week 1, so expect them to keep their foot on the gas the whole way through. Jackson has dominated the opposing conference, with an absurd 24-2 SU record against NFC foes. He shines under the bright lights, with a pristine 22 TD/0 INT MNF stat line. Detroit’s defense has several key defensive starters banged up, and I don’t how they’ll get consistent stops against OC Todd Monken’s attack. Grab this now at 29.5.

Rewind back two years ago, when the playoff-bound Lions became the latest team to get unnerved at M&T Bank Stadium in a 38-6 blowout loss. Detroit's normal bully tactics went nowhere in that game as Jared Goff was under constant siege, sacked five times and harassed countless times more. The Lions didn't even get non the board until the 4th Q when Goff was able to post some very decorative stats. Meanwhile, Baltimore flourished even before Derrick Henry, but Lamar Jackson toyed with the Lions defense en route to 357 passing yards. Detroit's normal intimidation game doesn't work vs. Baltimore, which again could be the side doing the intimidating tonight vs. the Lions. Play Ravens.

Lions rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa is already turning heads, even with minimal production. His athleticism and one-handed catching ability make him a candidate to be involved in this Dan Campbell offense. TeSlaa had 1 target & 1 reception in each of his first two NFL games, and went over this modest receiving yards total last week with his 29-yard grab. I think he will see a couple targets in this Primetime MNF matchup, that could turn into a shootout. The Ravens will be without two of their best pass rushers in this game. If Jared Goff can operate with a clean pocket, explosive plays will be available against this Baltimore secondary. TeSlaa only needs one look to cash this.

DraftKings. Mark Andrews has recorded two catches on four targets for seven yards so far this season. His average depth of target is 5.5 yards, with a long of 12 yards. Tiny sample, but the fact is that Andrews’ 11.8% first read rate (per Fantasy Points) is a far cry from when the tight-end was the primary receiving option for Baltimore. And this is a brutal spot against the Lions, who ranked 2nd in DVOA against the position last season (per FTN). Detroit held opposing starting tight-ends under this line in 11/17 games last season, and would be 2/2 this year if not for a late catch against backups last week. Detroit’s weakness is on the outside, and I expect the Ravens wideouts to capitalize.

Goff is completing over 80% of his passes, good for best in the NFL. This is after he ranked top 5 last year as well. His offensive line reminded us how good they are in Week 2, allowing zero sacks and the NFL’s lowest pressure rate. They now face a banged up Ravens front with both tackle Madubuike and edge rusher Kyle Van Noy out. We saw Goff complete 23 passes vs. the Bears in a blowout win — we have a much more favorable game script here with them expected to play from behind or be in a closer back and forth game. Both cases are good for us. He's cashed his completions in 8 of last 11 games, missing two by 0.5.

I like this bet a good deal at the 15.5 number. Jackson had a run for 16+ yards in 15/19 games last season! Lions LB Jack Campbell is currently ‘questionable’ to play, and Detroit’s defense has looked shaky even with him in. With the constant threat of Derrick Henry running over the D-line, Jackson always has opportunities to keep the ball on option plays and beat the defense to the edge. I see him breaking off a 20+ yard run early tonight.

Since 1990, no coach has more second half blown leads (17) than Ravens HC John Harbaugh. To blow the game late, you need to have the lead early, and the Ravens are most tough to deal with in the first 30 minutes. Jackson is the NFL’s most profitable 1H QB in history, going 60-34-2 ATS in the first half for his career. When the 1H spread is less than 3 points, he improves to 22-7-1 ATS. Baltimore are missing some key pieces on defense, so I would much rather place my faith in Harbaugh’s game planning early in this game, instead of holding my breath late if this one turns into a shootout.

I like the Ravens chances to cover this full game spread, but I also fear a back door cover against a Ravens defense that often wilts when offenses open things up. I think there's a good chance the Ravens catch the Lions relatively flat footed early. This is in part due to the Ravens dynamic offense, Jared Goff's issues on the road and the inability of the Lions to create pressure on Lamar Jackson. The Lions will move the ball as well, but they'll have more empty drives early.

The Ravens generate the second-most explosive pass plays, while the Lions give up the fourth-most. Detroit plays single-high safety coverage at the second-highest rate; that's a coverage Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers have torched. Flowers didn't clear this prop total last week against the Browns' staunch defense, but in Week 1 he had three catches of 23 yards or more.

The numbers swirling around this game are 7-2 and .763. Those are QB Lamar Jackson’s record and the Ravens’ win percentage on Monday Night Football. Keep in mind that those are SU figures, not ATS. The equally relevant digits are Dan Campbell’s career cover rate of 63.4% in all games, with a nearly as impressive 61.4% ATS as an underdog. The Lions have not received this many points since 2022. QB Jared Goff has matched Jackson’s excellence in this short season. Given a slew of injuries to the Ravens’ defense — with the one-two pass rush punch of LB Kyle Van Noy and DT Nnamdi Madubuike out for sure, Goff might be ahead of him after Week 3.

What really stands out to me about the Baltimore Ravens is how they play their best when the opponent is of their caliber. Having had the feeling early in the season of a let down game (Buffalo), look for the Ravens to remain focused for a good stretch of games before it happens again. The pressure from the front seven will be the difference in this contest.

The Ravens have won the last five meetings with the Lions, and this game is on grass. We saw how the Lions looked in their first game against Green Bay on grass, losing 27-13, with an offense that lacked the creativity the Lions squad has shown with regularity. But Jerry Goff just put 52 points on the Bears and passed for five touchdowns. The total is only 52.5 in this game, and I made the total of 66. The Ravens have scored 40 and 41 in the last 2 weeks. Over is the play.