Without Christian Watson to draw coverage, the Packers passing offense struggles. He’s now out for the season. Green Bay and Jordan Love have shown an ability to bounce back in second halves -- necessary due to slow starts. That does create dangerous backdoor cover scenarios. However, the Pack are 2-5 SU & ATS against playoff teams with mostly close losses, including to the Eagles by 5 in the season opener. Philadelphia is much improved four months later with a defense that has been on fire since the bye week. Philly closes out games extremely well with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, and it is coming off a half-bye, just like Buffalo. Taking the best line available here, but as a dead zone, take through -5.5.

The teams may not start fast. Both defenses are good, the quarterbacks are banged up and I get on the right side of the key number 23.

Saquon Barkley had a historic season, and may have broken Eric Dickerson’s rushing yards record if not for resting in Week 18. That rest was explicitly for this reason- To continue feeding Barkley carries in volume. Barkley had 20+ carries in 10 games this season, and had a combined 60 carries in his final two games. With Jalen Hurts clearing concussion protocol just a day ago, I expect Philly to lean heavily on Barkley. I was kicking myself for not taking this prop on Derrick Henry yesterday. I won’t miss out on betting on another star RB to put the team on his back.

The Eagles high-octane offense has taken some time to get going in many games this season. In fact, they’ve averaged just 3.6 points per game in the first quarter. Jalen Hurts will return from dealing with his first ever concussion. He cleared protocol just a day ago, which could lead him to begin this game semi-cautiously. The Packers will miss deep-threat WR Christian Watson against this top-tier Eagles secondary. These teams should go ground-heavy to start this game behind elite RB’s Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. I think that leads us to a 1H Under, with the game most likely heating up later in Q3 & Q4. This line at 23.5 is now available at -115 on DK.

In the last six meetings between the Eagles and Packers, it's tied up at three games a piece and the Eagles wins have been from 5 to 7 points. Jalen Hurts missed his last two games. The Eagles went 14-3 on the season with 11 covers. The Packers lost their last two and Jordan Love got banged up in his last game. Last year in the playoffs at Dallas I remember the Packers slinging it all across the field all day long. No Christian Watson. I don't know if the Eagles defense is going to allow that. That's the Eagles No. 1 rated defense in the NFL allowing 278 yards per game. That's what ultimately wins for the Eagles.

Jalen Hurts has missed a lot of practice time and this Eagles offense hit some road bums even before he suffered his concussion. Packers are an elite D since Week 6, just like PHI and can win in different ways. GB hardened by tough schedule and tough division and 10-1 outside NFC North. Packers have better head coach and QB. Eagles have been shaky at home. Packers went down this path quite well as a road dog last postseason.

DraftKings. Dontayvion Wicks stayed under this line in 13/17 games this season, including 3/5 as a starter. While he should see a higher snap share sans Christian Watson today, I’m still looking to fade the second-year wideout on this line. He’s been, by far, the least productive Packers pass catcher on deep throws (3/15 on throws 20+ yards down the field). The Eagles secondary is one of the best in the NFL, allowing both the fewest yards per reception and yards per target to opposing wide outs.

Slight move upward in price after word Jalen Hurts was a go for the Birds, but this won't be easy for Philly. The Pack, despite losing to the Eagles and twice each to the Vikings and Lions, was in almost all of those games, losing narrowly, including the opener in Brazil when the Birds squeezed a 34-29 win. Jordan Love is also a go after a being forced last week from the Chicago game, and remember how Love caught fire in the playoffs last year at Dallas and San Francisco. With Josh Jacobs now available, the Pack has a more-balanced look, and Matt LaFleur believes he has enough targets (such as Jayden Reed) to compensate for the absence of Christian Watson. Play Packers

Tucker Kraft caught four-plus passes just five times this season. In the season opener against Philly, he caught two of three targets. The Eagles' defense ranks third in DVOA versus tight ends and gives up the sixth-fewest targets to the position.

Not counting the game he got concussed in, Hurts has been under 28 pass attempts in eight games, all Eagles wins. Just once has he been over this line in a game the Eagles won by two-plus scores. Trends by the Packers defense suggest they'll stick with zone coverage while trying to pressure Hurts. When defenses have done that against Hurts this year, the Eagles have run the ball 54% of the time. That rate jumps to 59% run in their past five games. That's their identity right now. Ultimately, it just feels like Philly is a better team now than they were when they played Green Bay in Week 1, and with Jordan Love's elbow a concern, the Eagles should control the game script.

Saquon Barkley hasn't been used much as a receiver lately, but that should change Sunday. Green Bay has given up the most receiving yards to running backs over the past six games. The Packers have done a great job stopping the run recently, allowing 3.0 yards per carry over the past three games and 4.0 yards per carry this season (3rd-best). Look for Philly to get Barkley at least a couple catches and let him break tackles.

Jordan Love was brilliant in the Wild Card round last year, throwing for 272 yards and three touchdowns in a blowout win in Dallas. This time he faces a much tougher test, in a much more hostile environment, against the NFL's top pass defense. And he won't have Christian Watson to throw to. Philly allowed an average of 159.1 passing yards at home this season. Look for both teams to emphasize the run and for Love to finish with about 200 passing yards.

Josh Jacobs had a very strong debut season with the Packers. While Jacobs was certainly a workhorse, his efficiency began to plummet as the season progressed. Jacobs failed to top 70 yards in five of his last six games, while averaging below 4.0 YPC during that stretch. Jacobs will face a very stout Eagles run defense that ranks 2nd in EPA allowed per rush and 6th in success rate.

I'm not thoroughly convinced he plays in this game, but is he does, it won't be with "no tush push" restrictions. It's who they are and what they do. He has 5 rushing TDs in 5 playoff games. Facing an elite defense in which you probably need your best stuff to finish drives with a TD. This has hit in 8 of 10 games and in his last "season" of home games (17) this has hit 12 times with 14 total TDs in that span.

Dude just has a nose for the endzone and can contort and finagle his way to paydirt. It's good value early in the week that won't be around for long. He's cashed in 8 straight games and 9 of 10 and has 13 rushing TDs in that span. He can catch a screen and score from distance, too. GB RZ passing game can get janky and no Christian Watson hurts. I expect Jacobs to get plenty of chances to power for a score against arguably the best defense in football.

Jalen Hurts still being in the concussion protocol has to be a factor and Jordan Love banged up again. No Christian Watson for the Packers limits their explosives, which were already drying up some lately. Both defenses got markedly better as season went on. Since Week 6 PHI D tops in total EPA and GB 3rd. PHI first allowing 21 offensive TDs and 207 points; GB 2nd (230 points/21 OTD). PHI allowing 1.41 pts/drive (1st) and GB 2nd (1.76). PHI 6-3 to under at home (6 games at 44 or less). GB is 5-2-1 under in last 8 outside the NFC North. This smells like 23-20 to me.

Only one of the Packers' six losses has been by more than five points, but this is their toughest spot of the year, on the road against what might be the most complete team in the league. Injuries to Jaire Alexander (among other defenders) and Christian Watson are big on both sides of the ball for the Packers, giving this more of a chance to turn into a dominant win for the Eagles. I think this line should be at least 5.5 and I'd play the Eagles all the way up to -6.5.