Indicative of this being a true 50/50 game is the even wagering on a spread that sits at 3 and 3.5. The Bengals have surged behind Joe Burrow, but the defense is awful. The Broncos have overdelivered in all phases. Denver’s secondary is stacked, but with Tee Higgins active and Chase Brown efficient, Cincinnati can handle it. Neither side has defeated a current playoff team, which is an understated part this matchup being an unknown in Week 17. With the Dolphins and Colts both down starting QBs, the Bengals know their path is suddenly legitimate. This ultimately comes down to Burrow and his weapons at home over Bo Nix. If you cannot get -3, find a live line. Don’t want any part of -3.5.

The Broncos are averaging slightly over 24 points per game this season and the Bengals have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league. I expect this to be a fairly high-scoring affair, and with the Broncos coming off a mini-bye, I see them finishing with 28+ points on Saturday.

The 9-6 Broncos have the best cover record in the NFL at 11-4 ATS and can clinch a playoff berth with the win today at the Bengals. The 7-8 Bengals are playing their last home game and have the NFL's passing leader in several categories in Joe Burrow. They need the win to just stay alive and then need some help. The Broncos have the No. 8 defense in the NFL averaging 319 yards per game. The Bengals have won three straight. But all those wins were against losing teams and all the Bengals wins on the season have been against losing teams. When they meet a good team they lose, the Broncos are a good team. Broncos to win.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals have kept their playoff chances alive on the back of their high-octane offense. It’s the defense that has betrayed them this season, and I’m not sure Cincy deserves to be favorites over a Broncos team that ranks 9th in DVOA. Broncos standout CB Riley Moss will return, who Denver has sorely missed. If Broncos elite CB Patrick Surtain can limit Ja’Marr Chase, Moss can handle Tee Higgins and slow Burrow down. Bo Nix is the most profitable QB in NFL this season at 11-4 ATS, and is 6-2 ATS on the road. The Broncos shouldn’t be laying 3 & the hook.

Where the Bengals can give the Broncos a big problem in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. I like how active Cincinnati is around the football and will get their chances to turn the ball over against Bo Nix. Also, the Broncos run game is hit or miss, which will make them essentially one-dimensional. Look for Burrow and the offense to be able to easily cruise to covertown.

We've heard the narrative all week about this game, how the Bengals keep playoff hopes alive with a win, which the national media seems to be cheering. Concurrently, it's win-and-in for the Broncos, despite being dismissed as a capable potential playoff entry by the pundit class. But those sorts have been wrong before, and Denver is actually built quite well to deal with Cincy, as Pat Surtain II seems a good matchup for Ja'Marr Chase, and fellow CB Riley Moss returns to active duty this week. The Bengal defense has leaked all season, which should provide Bo Nix some opportunities, and Cincy's win over Cleveland last week was nowhere near as easy as the scoreline suggests. Note Broncos on 10-3 spread run. Play Broncos

Let's bill this as the Overachiever versus the Underachiever. Denver is 9-6, already well above its preseason wins total of 5.5. Cincy is 7-8, already having locked up the under of 9.5 wins. The key here is that the Bengals are on a roll. They have won outright as well as covered the last three games. The Broncos' secret sauce has been pressuring the QB, which plays right into Joe Burrow's hands. He excels at completing passes when the heat is on. The Bengals are in desperation mode, needing to win out for a chance at the playoffs, whereas Denver can still qualify in the final week with a loss here.

Jaleel McLaughlin is back, but I still like Javonte Williams to catch at least three passes Saturday. He was targeted 11 times last week at the Chargers, catching seven passes. This game could follow a similar high-scoring script. In addition, over the past four games, the Bengals have given up 29 catches to opposing running backs.

The Bengals are making a late push for the playoffs, but who have they beaten? Their toughest victory is likely over the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys, with losses to anyone that resembles a playoff team. That looks like it applies to the Broncos, who have only lost to the Chargers (twice) and at Baltimore and Kansas City since Week 3. The Broncos have scored 27-plus points in five straight, and they'll get to face a defense that has looked terrible when facing any offense with a pulse. Even if Joe Burrow overcomes a tough matchup to have a big day, the Broncos could go blow-for-blow and cover this number.

Bengals safety Jordan Battle has registered 17 tackles the past two games while playing 127 snaps. And he should be very busy Saturday against the Broncos. Denver is the best possible matchup for opposing safeties. With Battle missing only six tackles all season, I like him to get at least seven combined stops Saturday.

This one will feel like a playoff game for both teams and I think both offenses will have success. While teams can definitely run on the Bengals, the stable of RBs for Denver is far from elite and I expect Denver to be playing from a negative game script for a good portion of this game. More compelling is the fact that Bo Nix has been throwing the ball near the line of scrimmage at a high rate and that should equate to plenty of efficiency, particularly against a soft Bengals defense.

DraftKings. Chase Brown has cleared this line in four of the last seven games, the time span since Zack Moss went down with an injury, and Brown became the bellcow. He’s third on the Bengals with 29 catches over that span (17% catch share). Against a stout Broncos secondary, this should be a solid spot for check downs to Brown. Denver allows the seventh most receptions to opposing RBs (5.13).

We have a game with shootout potential that leads me to up the stake in this pick. Denver's offensive line should give Bo Nix plenty of time to beat Cincinnati's secondary downfield. The Bengals' defense has allowed 45 completions of 20+ yards (10th most) and nine 40+ yard plays (5th most). Look for Sutton, despite having cooled off over the last two weeks, to beat Cam Taylor-Britt and top at least 70 yards on Saturday with close to double-digit targets from Bo Nix.

Joe Burrow will continue to feed him in the RZ. Doesn't matter what the score is. Just ask the Browns who saw it in garbage time last wee already down multiple scores. Chase has 16 and seems to me Burrow wants to get him 20 if he can and make his 90-year old owner pay as much as possible to keep Chase after blowing the extension last offseason. This feels personal. Not merely football.

This is an auto play for me now. Burrow is intent on keeping his streak of 7 straight games with 3+ TDs going. He is well aware. Did you see the garbage time TD last week up 17-6 in dying minutes? Denver has suffered key injuries in secondary and is now leaking TDs all over. Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston recently did this to the Denver D. Joey Burrow will do the same.

Bengals made a habit of picking off a young QB last week and Bo Nix has started to make more rookie mistakes lately. He has multiple INTs in 2 of the last 3 games and Sean Payton steady has him chucking it around 30+ times a game whether at home or road. He's playing the long game with the kid and letting him learn and absorb as much as possible this year, knowing they aren't getting a ring yet. Nix has thrown 151 passes in last 4 road games - that's what happens when Denver D starts to collapse - which will lead to INTs with a novice passer. They take as many low % deep shots as anyone; also heavy INT potential.

Sean Payton is not backing off this kid. He keeps chucking it around knowing the run game is weak. Bengals pass D stinks. Nix has faced tougher spots on the road already. He's hit this in 5 of the last 6 games overall and 3 straight on the road. They will go down throwing the ball, if they go down. Broncos young receivers are far better than most realize.

Bengals played a rare under game at home, but that's because the Browns played without a QB. DEN D hemorrhaging points last few weeks and Bengals give up points in droves. Joe Burrow good for 3 TD passes a game. Bengals home games average 58.14 points, 2nd most. Sean Payton has Bo Nix throwing it all over the place and DEN has scored 27+ in 5 straight games. DEN 5-3 to the over on the road. All 7 CIN games vs winning teams have gone over and average 66.71 points (!!) and gone over on average by 18.6 points. Supposed to rain some but warm temps. Sold.

The Broncos need just one victory for a playoff spot ... but also know they have a Week 18 home game in their pocket against what might be a Chiefs team resting all its starters. Cincinnati has zero wiggle room: Must win out and get help. Joe Burrow is playing out of his mind with seven straight games with at least three TD throws. Denver's defense has allowed about 700 combined yards in the past two games and those were against Anthony Richardson and a bit of a gimpy Justin Herbert. Burrow is obviously in a different class.