Seattle had a much needed bye last week. The Bengals offense woke up in Arizona and look to carry that over into this afternoon. The Seahawks have been performing well with all their injuries but now get a Cincinnati team that is trending upwards. All of the comments made by Ja’marr Chase could have been the wakeup call this team needed, if Joe Burrow can continue to be the mobile quarterback that he is.

The Seahawks are a popular sharp play in this one, but I think the situational value is on the Bengals. Last year following a 2-3 start, they finished the season with 8 straight victories on their way to the AFC title game. With dates against the 49ers and Bills looming, the Bengals can't afford to miss this opportunity against a Seahawks club whose stock is a bit inflated following double-figure wins against two of the worst teams in the NFL.

Joe Burrow claims he’s as healthy as he’s been since July. After last week, there’s no reason to doubt him. While the Seahawks have gotten healthier over the last week, they have holes in their secondary that someone of Burrow’s caliber should be able to exploit now that he can extend plays again. Cincinnati is eighth-best in the NFL at getting to the QB, which should limit Geno Smith given he’ll be protected by multiple backups. The key will be the Bengals slowing Kenneth Walker enough so that they can key on Smith. Beyond Burrow, Joe Mixon is starting to find his footing. Plus, you know, Ja’Marr Chase is always bleepin’ open. This may slide back to -2.5, so keep an eye out until kickoff.

Not a lot of faith for Cincinnati I see. The Bengals already have burned me a few times this year, but hopefully Joe Burrow "found it" in last week's win in Arizona. Whatever it might be. The Bengals' ceiling is certainly higher than the Seahawks'. Tee Higgins is back for Cincy.

Bengals slot receiver Tyler Boyd could be in for a tough day, as he's expected to match up often with impressive rookie CB Devon Witherspoon. Boyd is averaging 33.2 receiving yards and even with Joe Burrow's improved health, I like the Seahawks to contain him.

The Seahawks are coming off a bye which they needed (for Geno Smith, Metcalf, Charles Cross and others) and are geting a Bengals team that still has some concerns on both sides of the ball. The Seattle secondary has given up a ton thus far, but they do have talent and the Bengals will face a much better pass rush and rush defense than what they saw last week against Arizona. Add to that the Seahawks can beat you through the air and with the running game and I think they're live to cover and maybe get the outright win.

Mixon has been under this total in three of his past four games, and he's had under 15 CARRIES in three of his past four games. And I wonder if his target share will still benefit him now that Joe Burrow is feeling better AND IF Tee Higgins is back for the Bengals. But this is the stat I care about: no one has hit this total against Seattle this year! That was defense has been nails -- 2.6 yards per carry to running backs this season. And we talked about this on our podcast about almost all of Mixon's runs being between the tackles with minimal variety in his work otherwise. I think he struggles for another game against a rested Seattle defense.

Seattle+3. Pete Carroll has a winning record in 11 of his last 12 years with the Seahawks, my point is this guy knows talent and how to get that talent to play hard. The biggest question is the health of Joe Burrow. Is he 85%, 90% or closer to 100% or lower than 85%. We are all not sure which puts doubts in how successful the Bengals can be. We know what they can do with a 100% Joe. Seattle QB Geno Smith has similar numbers to his breakout season from last year giving us a good idea, Smith is for real. Kenneth (Good first name) Walker should have a big day against a very porous Bengals run defense (29th in rushing yards allowed).

The Bengals cannot defend tight ends. Opposing TEs average 53.8 receiving yards per game. Noah Fant is responsible for 53% of the Seahawks TE receiving yards for this season. The line should be higher if you multiply 53% x 53.8 receiving yards. The model likes the over too at 36 yards.

Kenneth Walker is getting enough volume to justify going over this total against even an average rush defense, much less the second worst rushing defense in the league. Cincinnati has excelled against the pass and stunk against the run (154 yards per game allowed on the ground). Look for Seattle's top rusher to top the 75 yard mark on the ground which makes his prop a value at this number as I see it.

The Seahawks passing game is very concentrated to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, however Lockett has yet to eclipse 59 receiving yards this season. The good news is Lockett possesses an elite target profile including strong route participation, air yard share, and target share. This indicates the big games are coming and this looks like a potentially plus matchup. For starters the Bengals pass defense has not been good. CIN is 27th in coverage grade and rank in the bottom 10 in most defensive passing metrics. This game could also feature additional passing volume with Joe Burrow looking healthy and the Bengals passing game starting to click. I'll take the discount on Lockett who should have better days ahead.

I'm a fan of the Bengals in this spot laying less than a field goal but I prefer the over here with both offenses potentially spinning each other up into quite a frenzy with a fast-paced affair. If Joe Burrow is actually BACK -- and he looked it against Arizona -- then we should see a lot of pass attempts in a back-and-forth battle that features a lot of deep shots and longer scores with a reasonable total to hit.

The Bengals offense finally appeared to get on track against Arizona, but the 34-point outburst was only backed up by a 4.8 yards per play mark and still too much inconsistency from Joe Burrow down the field aside from the big TD to Ja'Marr Chase; when you put aside that play, the Bengals still had just 4.06 yards per play the rest of the game. I don't know if that gets it done against a Seahawks defense that's getting healthier. That unit ranks first in yards per rush, where the Bengals defense ranks 30th, and the run game will be crucial if this ends up being a wind-affected game. This seems like a clear Seattle play at +3.