Expert Picks
Tyrese Maxey is driving the Philly engine right now. ..
The Pelicans play at the NBA's fastest pace. ...
Toumani Camara has cleared this line in 6/7 games. …
Derrick White is under this line in 5/7 with Jayson Tatum this season. …
Memphis' lofty net rating could be inflated by a soft recent schedule ...
Brandin Podziemski is averaging 34 minutes per game as a key starter for the Warriors. He has made the most of his significant role, averaging 17.0 points and 5.0 assists. With regards to this prop, he posted at least 21 combined points and assists in five of his six games. The Heat play at the fourth-fastest face, have the fifth-worst defensive rating and have allowed the most assists per game in the league. Take the over.
This was my anchor for Parlay of the Day in the newsletter because I thought either Giannis or Bam Adebayo would sit after playing 40-plus minutes last night. Good news/bad news there. The bad is both are in, but the good is that this has dropped so far because of it that it's now playable solo too. Kudos to the Heat if they pull this upset, would be a really great win having played so much basketball since Monday on the West Coast. And I won't panic if they are up in the third. The fourth is where the legs should be gone. Ideally, it's a rout immediately with the rested Dubs rolling at the moment.
I rather doubt the Heat let Giannis play tonight after he played 41 minutes on Wednesday in an OT win at the Clippers; he was on the injury report as probable with a wrist. I don't doubt the Freak will play many back-to-backs this season, but this sure seems like a punt game for Miami -- its third on the West Coast in four nights. I almost want Giannis to play, the Heat to be down 20 quickly and he's pulled fairly early. If he plays and scores 40, well good for him. Amazing player. He and Draymond Green dueling will be fun -- Green was not suspended for his latest nonsense.
The Miami Heat made things difficult on the road last night against a Clippers team they were favored by 5.5 points. They had to comeback and win a close game in overtime. Fatigue may show for stretches tonight against a Warriors team that has won five straight games. Still, this is a bit of an over reaction on the spread on the Warriors side. Heat slip within the number and cover as the underdog.
The Heat are coming off a physical OT win at the Clippers, so they might not have 100% for a full 48 minutes. That’s good news for the Warriors; Miami already ranks dead last in perimeter scoring allowed, and that’s where Golden State produces most of their points. The Warriors’ defensive strength, meanwhile, is on the interior. Giannis and Bam Adebayo each went 41 minutes in L.A. last night.
Warriors superstar Steph Curry has turned back the clock. He’s averaging 30 ppg through seven games and in the last three has tallied 44, 31 and 34 points. There’s little reason to expect anything less here against Davion Mitchell and the Heat. Miami gives up 33.2 ppg to the point guard spot. Curry is also averaging 30.4 ppg in 20 career games vs. Mitchell.
Both of these teams looked dead in the water after the first week of the season, however both squads have been playing better as of late. Klay Thompson is coming off an amazing performance where he hit 8 threes including a game winner. This seems like a natural spot to fade Klay coming off one of his better 3 game stretches he has had since departing from the Warriors. At this stage of his career, Klay simply does not warrant a scoring line this high and is an easy fade at this high of a number.
Anthony Black is well rested after sitting out the second game of the Magic’s back-to-back set Monday. Prior to that absence, he logged at least 31 minutes in both of his prior two games. With the Magic dealing with injuries to Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs, Black has combined for at least 23 points and assists in three of his four games. The Suns have the worst defensive rating in the league, so with Black ticketed for around 30 minutes again, this over is appealing.
FanDuel. I’m going to jump on Anthony Black’s points, rebounds and assists line tonight. The point guard has been thrust into a significant role with Jalen Suggs and Paolo Banchero both out with injuries, and has responded with 33 and 34 PRA over his last two contests. Tonight, he’ll face a Suns defense that’s come out of the gate slow, having been burned by perimeter players all season. Black should draw the softer defensive assignment as I expect Dillon Brooks to cover Franz Wagner.
With Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs both sidelined, the Magic’s offense runs through Franz Wagner. Desmond Bane's biggest contribution is scoring goals. Bane is averaging 2.6 assists per game and has stayed under this number in five of his seven games. He’s been held to two or fewer four times, including a goose egg against Minnesota and a single dime against Boston. It’s just not his role to get 4+ assists in a night.