Alex's Picks (1 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
Anfernee Simons has had a solid season and is averaging just under 20 PPG, however he’s been scoring a lot more recently and is up over 25 PPG in March over a 9 game sample. I like this matchup for Simons against a Grizzlies team that play at the fastest pace in the league. Simons has played poorly in his two previous outings vs Memphis but I like his chances at home in a game that projects to be competitive with a healthy total.
We’re getting a sizable discount on this combination line for Christian Braun. The third year guard has been playing heavy minutes for the Nuggets and is averaging 17/6/4 while logging 37 MPG since February 1st, a 20 game sample. I’ll happily take the discount on Brain and if he suits up will play a full allotment of minutes.
I will continue fading Isaiah Collier who really over performed over a 15 game stretch in February and as a result his combo lines have been inflated. While Collier may stick in the league his scoring prowess is still under developed and defenses have adjusted to the pass first PG. Even in a plus matchup against the Wizards Collier is a fade for me at this high of a number. The Jazz could also have some high usage players back in their lineup as well.
This is a big number for Chet Holmgren who is unlikely to play heavy minutes in a game with serious blowout potential. I have a hard time seeing both the Sixers being competitive or the Thunder pushing Chet who has had durability issues, in a meaningless game.
Tari Eason has stepped in for Amen Thompson and has played well for the Rockets. He’s been especially impressive scoring however this is a tough spot for Eason in what is a brutal matchup against Orlando. The Magic possess a top 3 defense, in addition to playing at the slowest pace in the league. Furthermore, the Magic are excellent against opposing forwards and surrender the fewest points to 3s and 4s. Lastly, Eason has some fairly drastic home vs road splits and averages nearly 2 fewer points on the road.
This is a big number for the Clipper big man Ivica Zubac who averages 16.2 PPG, however that number doesnt tell the whole story and is a bit inflated as a result of LA being short handed a lot this season. When the Clippers are at full strength Zubac is at best the fourth option on a team with three high volume scorers in Norman Powell, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden. I would also consider this a difficult matchup against a very good Cavs defense that surrenders the 6th fewest points to opposing Centers over their last 15 games. Lastly, Zubac has struggled throughout his career versus Jarrett Allen having never topped 14 points and averaging just 8.6 PPG in their last six H2H matchups.
Deni Avdija has been playing excellent basketball as of late but this is simply a massive line for the versatile forward. Even in a great matchup against a Wizards team that is terrible, a lot will have to go right for Avdija to eclipse this line including a shot usage distribution that is heavily in his favor. In most outcomes Deni stays under this line as I would fade him at this high of a number versus any opponent.
This is a low number for Zion who despite being much maligned for having trouble staying on the court, he has continued to be an elite scorer. Zion’s minutes are also starting to ramp up which is a welcome sign as well. He’s also coming off a couple extra days off after missing the Pelicans last game for personal reasons. Zion is likely headed for another Questionable tag but considering it’s not injury related and how good he’s looked, I am very comfortable backing him.
KAT is having what I would consider his best season since entering the league and has thrived at the Center position where he is a major mismatch. With that being said, I expected this line to open a few ticks lower. For starters, KAT has failed to eclipse this combo line in six of his previous seven appearances and he is averaging just 32 PRA over that sample. This is also a difficult matchup against a Miami Heat squad that is ranked 12th in Defense and plays at the 4th slowest pace. Additionally the Heat are tough on opposing Centers and have surrendered the fewest Rebounds and Assists to the position over their last 15 games.
This is a massive number for Deni who has been playing excellent basketball but this is a way inflated combo line. There is also the chance that the Blazers get a few guys back in the lineup, thus Deni is like to see a few less minutes. Either way he is a fade for me at this high of a number regardless of opponent and matchup.
This is a big line for Josh Hart who averages 29.9 PRA on the season, however that number has dipped to 25.4 PRA in the month of March. Hart's teammate Mikal Bridges recently commented that he felt Knicks HC Tom Thibadeau was playing his starters too many minutes. For a guy like Bridges who has never missed a start or publicly complained this carries a lot of weight. Hart leads the NBA in MPG and is coming off of a 42 minute outing. I expect him a couple fewer minutes and this would qualify as a difficult matchup vs a suddenly excellent Golden State defense. I'd play this for a full unit at 31.5.
We're gettting a heavy discount on Domantas Sabonis combo line who has a realistic shot of suiting up for this game. This is also an excellent matchup against a Suns "defense" that surrenders the third most points, in addition to the fifth most rebounds to opposing Centers. If Sabonis does play and gets around 30 minutes, I expect him to cruise over this combo line.
Kevin Durant has torched the Kings throughout his career and they're not equipped to stop him. KD has been awesome at home where he averages 28 PPG on the season. Considering KD is averaging just under 27 PPG, I will happily take the discount in what is a plus matchup.
Franz Wagner has enjoyed a terrific season but much like his team has struggled, Wagner's scoring has dipped in the month of March. Wagner is averaging just 21.8 PPG and has been held under this line in three of his previous four appearances. Minnesota is also very tough on opposing forwards and have been playing great defense recently. The Magic are on the back half of a B2B and on the road where they are double digit underdogs. Lots of ways for Wagner to stay under this line.