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    Alex Selesnick

    PropStarz

    An experienced poker player, Alex Selesnick (aka PropStarz) specializes in NFL, MLB and NBA prop betting, where he implements a combination of research, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. He is arguably the nation's No. 1 props expert. Since joining CBS Sports in 2021, PropStarz has delivered consistent winners on SportsLine.com and "The Early Edge," the popular daily betting show. He is 461-350 (plus 62.6 units) in the NFL entering the 2024 season, and 212-146 (plus 53.06 units) in MLB entering the 2024 baseball season. PropStarz also is coming off a monster NBA season that saw him go 338-246 on prop plays (plus 42.72 units). PropStarz appears regularly on CBS Sports HQ and "The Early Edge" and publishes frequent articles with sophisticated analysis on SportsLine.com. For Alex Selesnick media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    +3975
    RECORD: 320-237-0
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    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks

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    Alex's Past Picks

    Jun 13 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    106
    @ Dallas
    99
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Jrue Holiday has arguably been the Celtics best player through two finals games. He's been terrific on both ends of the floor and had an outstanding 26 point, 11 rebound Game 2 performance that saw him shoot a blistering 11-14 from the field, while logging 41 minutes. Holiday has eclipsed this line in nine consecutive playoff games dating back to Game 2 against the Cavs in the Eastern Semis. I expect Holiday to log another 40+ minutes considering the series is shifting back to Dallas with the Mavs down 0-2 and favored to win Game 3. Look for Holiday to remain aggressive offensively and this number is low considering Holidays usage, playing time, and current form.

    Pick Made: Jun 10, 4:24 am UTC on Caesars
    Jun 10 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    98
    @ Boston
    105
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    This is a surprisingly chunky combo line for big Al Horford who looked very good in Game 1 on his way to logging 30 minutes, while compiling 20 PRA. However Kristaps Porzingis looked excellent in 21 minutes of action off the bench for Boston. I do not expect Horford to log more minutes than Porzingis as this series progresses. I also have confidence that the combination of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively will be more effective in Game 2. Even if Boston HC Joe Mazzulla elects to stick with Horford in the starting lineup, this number is closer to Horford's ceiling when logging 30+ mins.

    Pick Made: Jun 07, 8:14 am UTC on Caesars
    Jun 07 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    89
    @ Boston
    107
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Jrue Holiday is quietly having an exceptional postseason and the former All-Star is proving to be exactly the missing piece Boston thought it needed when it acquired him in the offseason. Holiday's value starts with his elite perimeter defense. But this postseason, he has really stepped up offensively. Holiday has scored 12-plus points in seven consecutive playoff games with blistering shooting splits of 50/40/90. Holiday also is logging upwards of 40-plus minutes and rarely leaves the floor. He has been far more aggressive looking for his shot in the playoffs; I'd set this line between 13.5 and 14.5 points.

    Pick Made: Jun 05, 5:27 am UTC on Caesars
    May 31 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    124
    @ Minnesota
    103
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    I've (mostly) unsuccessfully faded this exact combo line for AE throughout the series and outside of Game 2, Ant has made me pay, but alas here we are. This is undoubtedly the highest this Ant's RA line has ever been. While Ant has certainly proven he's capable of eclipsing this line, especially with the minutes he's playing, I do not believe his RA numbers are sustainable and I will continue to fade an inflated line.

    Pick Made: May 30, 1:07 pm UTC on Caesars
    May 29 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Minnesota
    105
    @ Dallas
    100
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Anthony Edwards played great basketball in the previous two series but has struggled in the WCF. One area where he's performed well has been his peripheral stats where he is averaging 8 rebounds and 8 assists, while eclipsing this in three of his last four games. If we look at the rebound and assist distributions, I don't think his numbers are sustainable. We are getting a bloated combo line.

    Pick Made: May 27, 4:06 pm UTC on Caesars
    May 29 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Minnesota
    105
    @ Dallas
    100
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    It's been a tough WCF for KAT who is averaging 15 PPG on just 27.8% shooting from the field. While it's going to be hard to shoot much worse than that, I do anticipate a more aggressive effort from KAT in Game 4 whereas rebounds are largely an effort based category. Look for Towns to play upwards of 40 minutes barring foul trouble and I believe he has double digit rebounds in the process.

    Pick Made: May 28, 8:54 am UTC on Caesars
    May 29 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Minnesota
    105
    @ Dallas
    100
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    This is a seriously depressed number for Rudy Gobert who averaged 12.9 RPG in the regular season and was pulling down 12.2 RPG prior to this series. Gobert has dealt with foul trouble in two games that has really prevented him from making a big impact on the glass. I also love the fact that Dereck Lively will be out tonight, leaving just an undersized Daniel Gafford as the only healthy body in Dallas front court. Minnesota should DOMINATE on the glass tonight.

    Pick Made: May 28, 2:40 pm UTC on Caesars
    May 28 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    105
    @ Indiana
    102
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    I'm actually surprised to even see a line up for Horford considering there is a possibility that Kristaps Porzingis suits up for this game. Maybe because Boston is up 3-0 they don't rush Porzingis back, but in the event he suits up, this number is way too high for him. In the event Al is the starter, this is also a high number as he's failed to eclispe this combo line in 10/13 playoff games. Al has also been logging heavy minutes.

    Pick Made: May 26, 7:40 am UTC on Caesars
    May 28 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    105
    @ Indiana
    102
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Andrew Nembhard stepped up in the absence of Tyrese Haliburton but this is a large points line for the 2nd year player. Nembhard has enjoyed a very solid postseason averaging 14.3 PPG and he has failed to eclipse this scoring line in 13/16 playoff games. These teams are becoming very familiar with one another and the projected total has subsequently dropped as a result.

    Pick Made: May 26, 9:48 pm UTC on Caesars
    May 27 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Minnesota
    107
    @ Dallas
    116
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Anthony Edwards has shot 17-57 over his last 3 games and while failing to eclipse 21 points. The good news is the usage is off the charts and he's not going to stop shooting. Edwards is too talented to keep under performing and despite this terrible stretch he is still shooting a highly respectable 48% in the postseason. I love his chances of bouncing back tonight and also will be looking at some alt lines because I expect a 30+ point performance. Great buy low.

    Pick Made: May 26, 3:53 am UTC on Caesars
    May 26 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Boston
    114
    @ Indiana
    111
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    The Pacers will be without their All-Star Point Guard Tyrese Haliburton who suffered a hamstring strain in Game 2 and will now miss Game 3 resulting in TJ McConnell replacing Haliburton in the starting lineup. On the surface this may appear like a significant boost in playing time and usage for McConnell but I believe it is unlikely that McConnell plays significantly more minutes and this PRA line appears to be an overreaction. McConnell appeared in 12 games without Haliburton this season and his numbers are nearly identical despite playing 5 additional MPG. I believe McConnell benefits greatly from primarily playing against the opposing teams second unit. His inability to shoot from deep also caps his playing time.

    Pick Made: May 25, 7:34 pm UTC on Caesars
    May 25 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    109
    @ Minnesota
    108
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Anthony Edwards struggled shooting the ball in Game 1 finishing with just 19 points on 6-16 shooting. Ant did finish with a whopping 19 RA which is why we're seeing this line as high as it is presently. Typically this combo line fluctuates between 9.5 and 10.5. If we look at the assist and rebound distribution on the Wolves, Mike Conley and KAT combined for 5 and Ant accounted for 35% of the teams assist, which he is unlikely to replicate. Additionally, Ant finished with 11 rebounds (27% of the teams rebounds) meanwhile, KAT and Gobert combined for only 14. This is a great sell high spot and if it's not next game, regression is coming.

    Pick Made: May 23, 4:57 pm UTC on Caesars
    May 24 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Indiana
    110
    @ Boston
    126
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Al Horford played a whopping 40 minutes in Game 1 of this series against the Pacers. At 37 years old and this stage of Horford's career that is simply too many minutes for Horford. I anticipate him playing fewer minutes tonight. Despite the massive playing time Al just barely eclipsed this total and has been held under this combo line in 10/12 playoff games this season. Even if we subtract the games that Porzingis appeared in, Al has posted PRA lines of 17, 19, 14, 11, 12, 42, 22. Clearly the 44 PRA line was an outlier performance.

    Pick Made: May 23, 3:48 am UTC on Caesars
    May 24 2024, 12:00 am UTC
    League
    Indiana
    110
    @ Boston
    126
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Never fun going on the opposite side of some of my colleagues but TJ McConnell has simply been playing way over his head and I do not believe his level of production is unsustainable. I would also offer hes unlikely to replicate the minutes he saw in Game 1. I expect this game to be paced down and this number feels much closer to his floor compared to ceiling. Lastly, I like Boston's transition defense to show up as well and limit some of his assist opportunities. Fewer easy buckets.

    Pick Made: May 23, 11:37 pm UTC on Caesars
    May 23 2024, 12:30 am UTC
    League
    Dallas
    108
    @ Minnesota
    105
    +3975
    320-237 in Last 557 NBA Player Props Picks
    Analysis:

    Nickeil Alexander-Walker struggled in the Timberwolves epic seven game series against the Nuggets. Denver made NAW very uncomfortable by pressuring him and constantly testing his handle and Alexander-Walker had trouble adjusting. However, I believe he will find more success against Dallas and his perimeter shooting will be key. Dallas likes to pack the paint and aggressively close out on perimeter shot attempts. Not only is NAW an elite catch and shoot player, but he possesses a patented catch and side step move that he often relies on. I believe NAW is likely to get up 5-6 threes in this game and like his chances of making at least two in the process.

    Pick Made: May 21, 1:42 pm UTC on Caesars