Past Picks
Cameron Boozer averaged 33 minutes over his first four games in the NBA. The Grizzlies are leaning heavily on their star rookie, but he is only shooting 27.9% from the field. Despite his shooting struggles, he is finding other ways to impact games. Not only is he averaging 10.5 rebounds, but he has dished out at least four assists in each game. It helps that he is playing alongside Ty Jerome, who is shooting 50.6% from the field and averaging 29.8 points. Kings big man Domantas Sabonis racked up 10 assists in a matchup with the Trail Blazers last week, so I’ll pay the juice for Boozer to emerge from this matchup with at least four dimes.
DraftKings. Cameron Boozer has cleared this line in three of four games this season, averaging a combined 26.8 rebound plus assist chances in the early going (with 22+ in each game). The Grizzlies are enabling him on the offensive end - his 41.8 front court touches per game not only leads Memphis, but is 12th highest in the NBA right now. The team is also not asking too much of the rookie defensively, allowing him to crash the boards. As the season drags on, I believe this will prove to be a low line for Boozer, so I’m happy to grab this number, especially at this price.
The Grizzlies' Ty Jerome has been one of the shock stories of the early season in averaging nearly 30 PPG when his career average is less than 10. But I think the crash back to earth started last game when he was held to 15 points at Utah. Portland has one of the NBA's better defensive guards in Jrue Holiday, although he comes off the bench. End of a trip for the Grizz so perhaps tired legs. Model has Jerome at 22.2. Memphis is fully healthy now so maybe not quite as many shots his way.
Memphis guard Ty Jerome is off to an incredible all-around start. In this matchup, I like him to get to six assists despite the difficult matchup. Through three games, the Trail Blazers have allowed an average of just 21 assists. But last time out against the Lakers, Portland yielded 28. Back Jerome to clear this prop total for the fourth time in five games this season.
This looks like a good spot to back Ja Morant as he’s set to take on his former team tonight in Portland. Narratives aside, the Grizzlies are an excellent matchup as they play with pace and aren’t particularly strong defensively. Look for Ja to stuff the stat sheet in what projects to be an up tempo game environment.
The Pelicans will have their hands full with another star center in Domantas Sabonis. Their last two games were against the Nuggets, with Nikola Jokic posting 23 and 25 combined rebounds and assists. Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Jazz, who is not a good rebounder for a player of his size, had 10 rebounds against New Orleans last week. In their season opener against the Pacers, Ivica Zubac torched them for 15 rebounds. Sabonis is averaging 16.5 rebounds and 7.3 assists through four games, so he can dominate this matchup.
FanDuel. Domantas Sabonis has cleared this line in 3/4 games this season. His matchup against the weak interior defense of the Pelicans (who’ll be without Yves Missi) will be the best on the floor for the Kings to exploit tonight. The Pelicans have been torched in the early going by skilled, high usage big men both on the offensive end and on the glass. Look for Sabonis to put up 40+ PRA tonight.
FanDuel. Aday Mara acquitted himself nicely in his first look at extended minutes off the Thunder bench on Monday, with 11 points and 10 rebounds in 20 foul-plagued minutes. With the Thunder’s injury issues rampant again tonight, Mara should once again find himself in a 18-24 minute role against a Mavericks roster that doesn’t have a an answer for him down low.
Gonna take the chance that Kyrie Irving plays -- this is moving down a bit at a few books, so maybe he is at shootaround right now or something -- as the Thunder are utterly shredded by injuries. Irving is questionable but it's not part of a B2B and it's a national TV game, so if he sits there is going to be some outrage. Model has OKC by 3.
The Jazz announced Tuesday that Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) will be out for at least six weeks. Complicating matters for them is that Lauri Markkanen (wrist) is listed as day-to-day. Even with them in the fold, Keyonte George scored at least 22 points in three of Utah’s first four games. The Spurs are a good defensive team, but George averaged 27.0 points in three meetings with them last year. The Spurs could also have tired legs, considering that this is the second game of a back-to-back set for them. With an elevated usage rate at home, I like George’s chances of scoring at least 21 points.
The Rockets might deploy more small lineups for this game with Alperen Sengun (back) and Steven Adams (calf) out. Amen Thompson has already been great on the boards, posting at least 10 rebounds in three of his four games. In addition to his rebounding prowess, he is averaging 17.0 points while shooting 53.2% from the field. The Bucks play at the second-fastest pace in the league and are 19th in defensive rating, so there should be ample opportunities for Thompson to score and grab rebounds.
FanDuel. Keeping up with my theme of taking advantage of roles changing with injuries - Terrence Shannon Jr. should see a moderate usage bump off the bench for the Timberwolves, who’ll now be without Anthony Edwards. Shannon, who was already playing 20-24 minutes, will be leaned on to create more on the wing (he’s averaging 10.3 drives per game as is).
Houston is quite thin on big men with both Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams out so Jabari Smith should play heavy minutes short of injury or fouls. He got 39 minutes Monday vs. Atlanta and put up 16 points and 12 rebounds -- and with Sengun starting. The model has him at about 16 and 10 here.
The New Orleans Pelicans have the rare trait of being winless, but are undefeated ATS. This includes covering as a double digit underdog in their last matchup against tonight’s opponent in the Denver Nuggets. They jumped out to a fourteen point first quarter lead, before losing in overtime. In all three of their losses they’ve held the lead going into the fourth quarter. Another fourth quarter collapse may happen, but look for the Pelicans to remain undefeated ATS.
New York is currently tied for last in the league in points per game with 104. Their offense showed progress last night, scoring 111, against one of the better defenses in the East. Chicago is not a good defensive team as no team has scored lower than 120 points in their first four games, averaging 129.5. This seems like a good spot, with a high total, for the Knicks offense to build some momentum despite being on a back-to-back.