4 Expert Picks
Jayson Tatum is flashing his pre-injury form in this particular statistic. ...
Reed Sheppard made four three-pointers in 28 minutes on Tuesday...
Cody Williams looks to continue his strong play. …
With the Jazz tanking, Cody Williams has averaged 33 minutes over his last nine games...
FanDuel. Bennedict Mathurin came back from a short absence for “injury maintenance” without missing a beat. The Arizona alum has fit right back in with the new look Clippers - in fact, he’s cleared this combined line in all nine games he’s played alongside both Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland. The matchup tonight really suits his skillset - the Blazers allow the tenth most free throw attempts per game, and the aggressive Mathurin has 11+ FTA in each of his last three games. Plus, Portland is 27th and 29th against trabsition offense and pick and roll ball handlers, respectively. Bet on Mathurin to continue on his recent run.
Evan Mobley has been playing arguably the best basketball of his career in the month of March averaging 21/10/3 on impressive efficiency. He will face a Lakers team that gives up a ton of production to opposing scoring forwards. Mobley has been extremely active on the glass and is averaging 12 RPG over his last 9 appearances. With Jarrett Allen on the shelf, Mobley should get all the run he can handle and looks poised for a high volume role in a game that projects to be competitive.
Evan Mobley has scored 17+ points in nine of his last 10 games, averaging 22 PPG over this stretch. He's also gone over this prop line in 13 of the last 15 games overall and in 69.2% of games in which he plays 28+ minutes. He's played 28+ minutes in 12 of the last 13 games. Mobley faces a Lakers defense that is allowing a league-high 11.9 FG per game and 68.3 FG pct (3rd-worst) inside 5 feet this season, where Mobley shines. He's taken 73.1 pct of his shots from less than 5 feet this season. Mobley did not play vs. the Lakers earlier this year, but scored 20 and 25 in the two meetings last year.
Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and LA Lakers are in back to back spots. For the Lakers they did rest Luka Doncic in yesterday’s win over the Washington Wizards. I also expect the Lakers to be motivated seeing a Cavaliers team that trounced them in January 129 to 99. The extra energy for the Lakers should be there as they had one of the easiest schedules over the last week, in which they faced Indiana, Brooklyn, and Washington. Since December the Lakers are also 5 and 1 to the over on the second night of back to backs. Take the over.
Jarrett Allen played 18 minutes in his first game back from a 10-game absence due to knee tendinitis, racking up 18 points and 10 rebounds against the Heat. He should see 20-25 minutes in Tuesday's showdown with the Lakers after sitting out Monday's game. He has cleared this prop total in 15 of his last 16 games. Even with a few fewer minutes, I love Allen to thrive in this matchup after resting since Friday.
Luka Doncic was suspended for Monday’s game against the Wizards after receiving his 16th technical foul of the season. Before the suspension, he averaged 39.7 points over his previous 12 games. He averaged a whopping 27.3 shot attempts and 9.6 free throw attempts during that span. The Cavaliers have struggled on the defensive end since acquiring James Harden, including ranking 20th in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games. This is a big number, but I still like the over.
No Giannis of course, but no Bobby Portis or Kyle Kuzma either for the Bucks. Someone needs to make up for the missing 26.8 ppg for the latter two, and Turner, who averages 11.9 ppg, is a prime candidate. He’s played one game without both those teammates and scored 15, and in four games he’s suited up without Portis, he’s scored 15-plus in three of them. The Mavericks rank 28th in scoring by opposing centers.
Yesterday was a flat spot for the Dallas Mavericks at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves were energized with the return of Anthony Edwards, and blew out the Mavericks by thirty points. Prior to that loss the Mavericks were competitive in four straight games. They lost two games in overtime, covered against Denver, and beat Portland as a double digit underdog. Tail Dallas as the slight road favorite.
Second of a back-to-back and a random, worthless one-game road trip for the Mavericks so I don't get why they would put up much of a fight. PJ Washington leads a handful of guys sitting out. The Mavs are only favored because the Bucks are tanking, too, and obviously still without Giannis. Welcome to the modern-day NBA.
DraftKings. While Alperen Sengun has put together some solid performances of late, it’s largely come in softer matchups for the Rockets big man. Tonight shouldn’t be one of those, as the Knicks have allowed the fewest combined points rebounds and assists to opposing centers, both over the course of the season and over the last 15 games. The Rockets running bigger lineups make it easier for the Knicks to play Mitchell Robinson more minutes - the Knicks backup center and defensive dynamo has been eating into Karl-Anthony Towns’ playing time as is. Sengun is under this line in 12/19 games against teams in the top 10 of allowing centers the fewest combined PRA, including 10 of the last 11. I’d bet this to under 32.5.
Amen Thompson has averaged 9.8 rebounds over his last nine games. During that span, he grabbed at least eight rebounds seven times. In one of the games that he didn’t, he just missed with seven boards. A key to his gaudy rebounding stats is that he played 39 minutes a night during that span. The last time he faced the Knicks, he grabbed 10 rebounds over 40 minutes. With the expectation that he plays a lot again Tuesday, the over is the way to go here.