1 Expert Pick
The well-rested Thunder hosts San Antonio in game one...
Detroit’s three wins this series have been by 10, 10 and 21 points, the latter one a Game 6 victory in Cleveland to force this decisive Game 7. The Pistons also needed seven games in Round 1 vs. Toronto, winning that one by 12. They keep playing with fire, but limit Donovan Mitchell one more time, try to make James Harden carry and be the No. 1 seed they are. Their last 20 victories have all been by at least five points.
Game seven we know is all about the star players raising their play for their respective teams. One role player that has seen his production drop to season lows is Dean Wade of the Cavaliers. The prop market recognized this and still he has went under his points prop in four straight games. He even went scoreless in games four and five. This has had nothing to do with Wade shooting poorly, but just not shooting at all. After just three shots in three games, look for Wade to get a few extra looks tonight. Take his over.
Paul Reed produced 17 points and six rebounds in 16 minutes Friday. Since JB Bickerstaff decided to start playing him, Reed has cleared this prop total four straight times. True, Jalen Duren is coming off his best game of the series. But Duren is unlikely to duplicate that 15-point, 11-rebound effort; even if he is effective, Reed should still see at least 15 minutes. I would not be surprised if Reed played 20 minutes, though, because of the instant boost he has supplied.
James Harden has a spotty record in Game 7s, but I like him to keep filling up the box score Sunday. He has had no fewer than 34 combined points, assists and rebounds the past three games. Donovan Mitchell is drawing the tougher defensive matchup, and Harden continues to be aggressive. He might lose another big game, but I’ll bet he goes down swinging. I would play this for a half-unit at 30.5.
FanDuel. Forgive me for copying and pasting my write-up from Game 6, but after a team-leading 8 boards in 29-minutes, we’re getting the exact same line on Max Strus’ rebounds for Game 7. He’s now recorded at least 5 rebounds in 16/25 games this season, including 4/6 this series. With the Cavs entrusting him to defend Cade Cunningham (and he has acquitted himself well in that role), he is continuing to see closing time minutes. Needed on the floor offensively for floor spacing, the high-energy veteran should continue to make an impact in Game 7. Look for Strus to clear this plus-money prop in a game where I expect both teams to shoot slightly worse than usual.
FanDuel. It was telling that the backup center minutes in Game 6 went 16-4 Paul Reed’s way. The third string big man’s role has progressed as this series has drawn on, and it’s hard to see that reversing course in Game 7, given how well the big man has performed. Reed has reached double digits in each the last four games, with 43 points in 59 minutes this series. Reed has long been a guy who produces when given the opportunity - and given the Pistons struggles offensively, I do expect Reed to see another 12-18 minutes in Game 7 (with upside). When Reed sees minutes in that range, he’s cleared this points line in 13/20 games this season (including 9 of the last 10).
DraftKings. Jarrett Allen has cleared this points line in four of the last five games. Noticeably, he’s been able to capitalize on the Pistons hedging a bit harder on pick and rolls and dribble drives - he’s received 20 paint touches and 15 offensive rebounds combined over his last two games. He’s been solid this series, and doesn’t run much risk of being played off the court for smaller lineups.
Paul Reed did not play the first two games of this series. Since then, he has become an important member of the Pistons’ second unit, surpassing Isaiah Stewart on the depth chart. Reed finished with 17 points and six rebounds in Game 6 and has at least 14 combined points and rebounds in each of the last four games. As the Pistons try to advance, Reed should remain in a similar role, making this over appealing.
Duncan Robinson is listed as questionable for Game 7. The Pistons don’t have much three-point shooting without him, so I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t play. Even being limited to 20 minutes off the bench in Game 6, he scored 14 points. He has made at least four three-pointers in four of his five games against the Cavaliers and shot 45.0% from behind the arc at home during the regular season. Even if he comes off the bench again, I think he hits this over.
Ayo Dosunmu has recorded 9, 5, and 7 rebounds in his last three games, playing at least 30 minutes each. Victor Wembanyama has been pulling Rudy Goebert outside creating opportunities for Edwards and Dosunmo to get boards. Over the last 3 games, Dosunmu is averaging 11.3 rebounds chances a game. We only need 5. And we are getting plus money.
In his career, Anthony Edwards has 27+ points in six of eight games with his team's season on the line, for an average of 26.5 points per game. He’s also averaging 7.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game in these situations. This will come down to how many minutes the Wolves allow Ant-man to play. He’s coming off an injury, but saw 40+ minutes in Games 3 and 4. Game 5 he played 39 minutes in a blowout. In Game 3 and 4, he scored 32 and 36 points, while scoring 30 in the lone game in the Nuggets series in which he played 40+ minutes. Small sample size, but that’s 3-for-3 when playing 40 minutes this postseason.
This has been a brutal matchup for Julius Randle. He's shooting 36.6 percent in the series, which includes 8 for 24 at home with eight turnovers. Following a strong Game 1, Randle has stayed Under this prop total the past four games. Bank on San Antonio's elite defense to keep frustrating Randle.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper continues to impress for the Spurs, and it’s evident that Mitch Johnson is looking for more ways to keep him on the court when it matters. The rookie has cleared this line in four of five games this series, including a 31 and 22 point plus rebound performance in Games 4 and 5 respectively. His size on the perimeter has posed problems for the Timberwolves, who do not send help defenders on ball-handlers (especially with Victor Wembanyama looming). The rookie’s confidence is clearly percolating, and this is a line he’s cleared in 23 of the last 33 games with a fully healthy Spurs lineup. I’d bet this to over 15.5 with confidence.
Ayo Dosunmu is healthy again, which has resulted in him playing at least 30 minutes in each of the last three games. In those three games, he averaged 7.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists, hitting this over each time. Mike Conley Jr. can’t play many minutes at this stage of his career, so Dosunmu is likely locked into at least 30 minutes again in Game 6. That’s an important threshold for him because he averaged 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists across 20 games in which he logged at least 30 minutes during the regular season. Look for him to remain productive in both departments as the Timberwolves try to stave off elimination.