Josh Hart collected 10 rebounds in each of the regular-season matchups with Indiana, and I bet it to happen again Wednesday. The Pacers' penchant for pushing the pace increases possessions, and the ironman Hart should be fully rested and ready to play 40-plus minutes after being off since Friday.

The preferred paces of each might be a bit overblown...especially the Knicks, who can hit the accelerator, too. We saw some of what NY could do at the end of the Boston series, and must note the scoring range of these regular-season meetings that was between 221-253, and both trending over (NY 5-2 last seven, Indy 6-1 last seven) into this East finale, so the 222.5 seems a total that these teams can clear. Last year's East semis playoff round featured a Knicks side that was down OG Anunoby from the middle of Game 2 and didn't have Julius Randle (now T-wolves) at all, and the Knicks attack functioned better when it was closest to full strength, as it looks now. Play Pacers-Knicks Over.

The New York Knicks caught a break in their last series against the Celtics with big man Kristaps Porzingis limited with an illness. As a result, there could be an adjustment factor facing a shooting big like Myles Turner in game one. Turner excelled last postseason where he went over in five of the seven games against the Knicks, and also erupted for 26 in his last matchup against the Knicks.

Rick Carlisle's edge vs. the Knicks might be going 11-deep with his Pacers and deploying full-court pressure defense that's designed to wear out foes, which is what happened to the Bucks and Cavs in the first two rounds. We'd also discount regular-season results vs. NY, two of which coming before Thanksgiving and the other just in front of the All-Star break, all well before the Pacers shifted into overdrive in mid-March; at 23-5 SU since March 17, Indy is arguably the hottest team in the playoffs. Different leading scorers (Nembhard, Turner, Mathurin, Siakam, and Haliburton) in each game of the romp past top-seed Cleveland speaks to the balance on Carlisle's roster, and Indy has won four straight on the playoff road this spring. Play Pacers

There aren’t many games in the NBA playoffs where the spread is actually a factor. Tonight though I believe we see that be the case, with the spread a bit to high on the Knicks side. These two teams know each other very well from the regular season series, and playing a seven game series last postseason. Take Indiana who has covered seven out of ten playoff games, to cover a generous spread.

Both teams are red hot, with the Pacers 8-2 in their last 10 games and the Knicks 7-3. While the Knicks are favored at home, Indiana's up-tempo style and strong fourth-quarter performances—second-best in the NBA—make them a dangerous underdog tonight. Pascal Siakam's rebounding and the Pacers' fresh legs could exploit New York's shorter rotation. Both teams are healthy, but Indiana's recent playoff road wins and offensive efficiency suggest they can hang with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden or even win outright. My betting model has the Knicks favored by 1.2 points, so getting 4.5 seems juicy.

Bennedict Mathurin averaged 16.1 points during the regular season, and he averaged 25.3 points in three games against the Knicks. After a somewhat disappointing first-round series against Milwaukee, Mathurin shot 51.4 percent against the Cavaliers, including 41.2 percent from deep. In the Pacers' fast-paced offense, he is a valuable weapon who often leads the bench in minutes. This number sits at 10.5 at many books, and I would still play it Over there.

The Pacers have been locked in on the road in the playoffs. They lost Game 3 against the Bucks in Milwaukee, but have won four straight road games since. That included winning all three games against the Cavaliers in Cleveland. The Pacers have a depth advantage in this series and it would not be a surprise if they advanced to the NBA Finals. I think they could win Game 1, so I’ll at least take the points.

Karl-Anthony Towns dominated the Pacers during the regular season. He played them three times and had at least 36 combined points and rebounds in each game. Myles Turner helps the Pacers stretch the floor on offense, but he only averaged 6.5 rebounds per game during the regular season. That contributed to the Pacers allowing the ninth-most rebounds per game in the league. In the playoffs, they have allowed the third-most rebounds per game. Look for Towns to start off this series on a high note and hit this over.

FanDuel. After a regular season in which Josh Hart averaged 23.2 points plus rebounds, we’re treated to a nice discount after two tougher playoff matchups. Hart should thrive in this series, as the Pacers will run up the pace (Indiana ranked seventh in pace on the regular season, and third in the postseason). Against teams in the top 12 of pace this regular season, Hart cleared this line in 22/34 games (64%), including 3/3 against the Pacers. Indiana will put Tyrese Haliburton on Hart, and the Knicks wing has done a great job of attacking the Pacers point guard offensively. Plus, Indiana is a below average rebounding team Hart notched exactly 10 rebounds in each matchup this season.

The trends are in our favor here. Not only is Pascal Siakam 10-4 over this vs the Knicks the last two seasons (including 5-2 in last season’s playoff series), he is also 8-5 to this over in his recent stretch of games. Even though he is a star player with championship pedigree, he rarely gets double teamed and is not the focal point of the defense with Halliburton being the team superstar. This over is just dependent on minutes, and I think we get enough from him in Game 1.

The Pacers are averaging 118/G in the playoffs. Six of their last 9 games have gone over and their second team will present problems for the Knicks. too. They have a +5.5 net rating in playoffs and lead the postseason in assist/TO ratio, EFG% and TS%. And they really hit their shots on the road, a trend in these playoffs. The Pacers have scored 114+ in 8 of their 10 playoff games and last 12 meetings between these teams averaged 237 points. Knicks' starters have played 140 more mins than Indiana; fresher legs could be a big deal here.

The model leans under with 61% confidence, projecting both teams to fall short of their implied team totals. The Knicks fall short because of a projected 34% 3pt shooting. Indiana's rebounding limitations—especially on the offensive glass—mean fewer second-chance points, and New York's recent defensive performance against Boston (only 9 offensive rebounds allowed despite a ton of long rebounds off missed threes) suggests they can control the boards again. The Pacers only had 5 offensive rebounds in their Game 5 clincher vs. Cleveland, so it obviously isn't a coaching emphasis or key to their success which is why we don't think it'll be any different in Game 1. With both teams likely to struggle from three and limited extra possessions, the under presents solid value.

The model projects a tight Game 1, with New York edging Indiana 109–107, but gives Indiana a 55% chance to cover the +4.5 spread. The Pacers' perimeter defense is a key factor here—they held Cleveland to sub-30% 3-point shooting in four of five games, and they were a top-10 team in 3-point defense during the regular season. The Knicks' 3-point shooting has been volatile in past matchups as high as 52% in game 2 last season to 19% the next.

Maybe I'll regret grabbing this if the spread gets above 5, but I also expect the Pacers to win this outright. They are 8-2 in the playoffs and starter have played 319 mins, to 459 for the Knicks, who also rode the first team too hard in the regular season. The Pacers are tops in the playoffs in assist/TO ratio, TS%, EFG%, while NY is 9th or worst in those categories. The Pacers' D gives me a little pause but they've covered 6 of 7 on the road and 8 of the last 11 overall. NYK are 3-4 ATS in last 7 at home. These teams have split their last 12 meetings. Should be close game.