ANALYSIS: This spread is way too low. South Florida went 1-11 last season, changed coaches and brought in more than 40 transfers. The Bulls will need time to build continuity. Meanwhile record-setting quarterback Austin Reed and play-making linebacker JaQues Evans return from a Hilltoppers team that went 9-5 last season. My model says Western Kentucky wins by 26 points so you're getting strong value at this number.

ANALYSIS: I realize the Astros have dropped three in a row and lost a game on Friday night that they shouldn't have. But they crush lefties and face Tigers southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez. Also Houston rookie Hunter Brown makes his first start in his hometown; I expect him to pitch well. My model says the Astros win 70% of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

ANALYSIS: This is a pretty cheap price on the best team in baseball. I realize Atlanta is facing Logan Webb, but the Braves have won four in a row and seven of eight. They haven't given up a run in their last three games. My model says Atlanta wins 66% of the time, so you're getting value at this number.

ANALYSIS: Arizona has lost nine in a row and is a -155 favorite? Give me San Diego, which pounded the Diamondbacks on Friday night, scoring 10 runs on 14 hits in a 10-5 win. Arizona has scored more than four runs only once in its last 13 games. The Padres are winning 50% of simulations so you're getting good value at this number.

ANALYSIS: I realize that Milwaukee has the edge in the starting pitching matchup, but this price is way too good. The Brewers have lost six of their last eight. Over the last 15 days, they have a 4.98 ERA, ranked 24th in baseball. Meanwhile, in its last three series, Pittsburgh has won two, taking down two teams vying for playoff positions (San Diego and Philadelphia), and split a third against Detroit. My model's simulation average money line probability of 42.0% is drastically different from the consensus odds implied probability of 32.5%, which means you're getting strong value at this price.