ANALYSIS: My simulations are showing excellent value on both the over and the Suns on the money line, but with the ML -195 the best bet is the Over. Phoenix is winning in 77% of the sims, and the Over is hitting 73% of the time. The model shows the Suns winning by 11 points, with the total right around 230. The Over has hit in four of the Suns’ past five and in four of the past five meetings between the teams in Detroit. The Pistons are at the bottom of the league in scoring defense (120 PPG) and shooting defense (49.3%). The Suns are one of the NBA’s best three-point shooting teams (38.4%).

ANALYSIS: My simulations have the Mocs winning outright 64% of the time, making this excellent value at plus-money. Chattanooga has won four of the past five meetings, including the past two by 19 and 18 points. The underdog is 13-6 ATS in the past 19 matchups, and my simulations have UTC covering 68% of the time, with an average winning margin of five points. The Catamounts are the worst shooting team in the Southern Conference (43%) and Chattanooga is the second-best in shooting defense (42.2%).

ANALYSIS: My simulations have the Jaguars winning 79% of the time and are projecting a 10-point margin. Southern is covering the spread 67% of the time, bringing excellent value at this number. Alcorn has won six in a row, but the Jaguars have won six of seven and are 13-5 ATS this season. Southern has covered the spread in all three of its home games, winning by an average of almost 18 points. It averages almost nine points more per game than Alcorn State and shoots 7.5% better from three-point range.

ANALYSIS: My model has this total coming in at around 245 points and hitting the Over 70% of the time. The Sixers have gone over the total in 27 of 45 their games, and the Over has hit in 15 of Sacramento’s 24 at home. The Kings are the league’s highest-scoring team at almost 120 points per game. They have topped 130 points in five of their past seven. Philly is a more defensive-minded team, but the 76ers are fourth in the league in three-point shooting (37.9%) and average almost 114.

ANALYSIS: My model has the Dons winning outright in 70% of simulations and covering in 65%, with a projected winning margin of seven points. San Francisco is playing its third straight at home, and the Cougars have lost three of their five true road games. The Dons average 76 points and shoot more threes at home, making 9.6 per game. BYU averages 69 points on the road. The Dons won the most recent meeting by 12, at BYU last March.