FanDuel. Draymond Green has yet to clear this combined points, rebounds and assists total this series. It’s a tough matchup all around for Green, as the Rockets limit spot-up shooting, rebounds and assists. He’s particularly struggled on the glass against the Rockets bigger lineups.

This is a huge number for backup Center Steven Adams who is playing under 20 mins a game in this series, while averaging 11.6 PRA. The bulk of Adams production came in game 1, where he collected double digit rebounds while chipping in six points. In a must win game for Houston, starting Center Alperen Sengun is going to get all the minutes he can handle. I’d play this down to 11.5 for a full unit. This is going to be a paced down low scoring environment.

Jabari Smith Jr. role has changed significantly from being a starter for the Houston Rockets. On the road in this series he has warranted an uptick in minutes where he is averaging 24 minutes. Expect his offense to be needed and the possibility of Smith finishing out the finally 4-5 minutes if a blowout does occur. Take his over in the points department tonight.

Draymond Green has averaged 6.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists in this series against the Rockets. He has not combined for more than 19 points, rebounds and assists in any of the five games. A big reason why is that he is averaging just 6.6 shot attempts per game. With the Warriors expected to rely heavily on Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler for scoring, expect Green to continue to have a low usage rate.

How many minutes will "Podz" get for the Warriors tonight? In the two games of the series where he saw at least 35 minutes he topped this. In the other three, not close. This should be a defensive battle with Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler obviously taking most of the shots. And if Houston goes with that double-big lineup a lot again, that could mean fewer minutes for Podziemski as the Warriors may try to match that size at least somewhat. Our model has BP at 12.0 points.

FanDuel @ -120. Jimmy Butler and the entire Warriors offense failed us in Game 5, but I’m going back to the well and betting on Butler in Game 6. Playoff Jimmy has cleared this line in three of the four full games he’s played, and I’m counting on him to shoulder the load in a critical Game 6 at home. Steph Curry’s thumb does not seem 100%, and Butler does not seem to be suffering any ill effects from his pelvic injury from earlier this series. I’m ok betting this up to over 22.5 points.

Two more games on Thursday, two more overs, so the earlier first-round under trend is now in the rear-view mirror with overs on an 11-4 run. The Rockets helped on Wednesday in their Game 5 romp vs. the Warriors, who admittedly seemed to back off when the score got out of hand, but Houston was consciously pushing the tempo from the get-go to set a faster pace. Expect the Dubs to try slowing a down a bit in another close-out game tonight, and Ime Udoka is still waiting for Jalen Green (only 11 on Wednesday) to establish more consistency. In the meantime it's vet Fred VanVleet who's taken control of the Houston offense, and 203.5 still not a prohibitive total. Play Rockets-Warriors Over

Houston crushed the Warriors in Game 5, 131-116. The one bright spot in the blowout loss was Golden State head coach Steve Kerr took his starters out of the game down 29 with six minutes left in the third quarter. With the game out of hand, Kerr opted to rest his players and try to close out the series at home. I think this will be a tight game but I like Golden State to come out fresh and motivated after the Game 5 debacle. I'll back the Warriors to win the first quarter at home.

Even though we have a very slight lean on Houston to cover the full game +5, I’m taking Golden State to cover the first quarter. After the pathetic display in the first quarter of Game 5, you have to figure they’ll come out ‘hair on fire’ in this one. The Warriors know they can’t afford to have this series go any further because even if they are confident in their ability to win a Game 7 on the road, they don’t want to allow Minnesota, who is already much healthier, bigger and athletic, to have a lot more rest before the 2nd round.

The Warriors have won close games and been, by far, the better fourth quarter team. Similar a bit to the Wolves/Lakers series in that way. Steve Kerr got to take his top dogs off the floor early in blowout loss. The young Rockets will struggle on the road in this spot. We haven't seen the best from Steph in this series yet but I bet we do here. The Rockets have turned the ball over a ton on the road. Experience matters in a game like this.