Thomas's Picks (1 Live)
One thing I learned over the years is to never decide on teams I'm going to bet or fade in the NCAA Tournament before seeing the bracket. Tennessee is a great example. I was looking to bet against Tennessee early but they got two favorable matchups versus Miami, OH and Virginia. Now the Vols are facing Iowa State without its best player in Joshua Jefferson. I don't think Jefferson plays but if he does he won't be close to 100% against Tennessee's physical front line. This probably comes down to which team protects the basketball. Both defenses thrive on creating turnovers and converting them into easy baskets. I believe we are looking at a one possession win either way. I'll take the 4.5 with Tennessee.
This number dropped to 9.5 at BetMGM. I think it might get there at other books too but I'm going to hop on it now. These two teams are going to race up and down the court. Both rank top 25 in pace, so it will come down to which defense gets more stops. That’s where Michigan has a big edge. Alabama got by Hofstra and a short-handed Texas Tech squad. Michigan is an entirely different challenge though. The Wolverines rank sixth in offensive efficiency and have athletic big men who can run the floor. Alabama will score, but the Wolverines will score more. I like Michigan to pull away and win by double digits.
This is a tough matchup for Arkansas. The Hogs really struggle to defend near the basket and now have to deal with Arizona's big frontline. We know Arkansas will score. The problem will be on the other end of the court. Arkansas ranks 257 in two-point percentage defense. Meanwhile, Arizona scores 57 percent of its points from two-point range. The Wildcats will simply get too many easy baskets. Also, Arkansas has only beaten one KenPom Top 15 team since Jan. 3 (Vanderbilt twice). They have been beating up on inferior opponents. I think Arizona wins by at least eight points.
This tournament is going like I thought with the top seeds dominating. I don't see that changing much on Sunday. Arizona was my highest rated team entering the tournament, while Utah State won a bad MWC this year. The Wildcats should own the offensive boards and live at the free throw line. Arizona also has a big edge defensively in this matchup. Mountain West teams have been horrible as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament, going just 16-41-3 ATS in that role since 2001. I think the Cats win a 85-68 kind of game to advance into the Sweet 16. Lay the 11.5.
I gave out this over late Thursday on Discord when a couple books opened at 158.5. That was an awful number and it lasted three minutes, so I understand most people didn't get it. I would still play 161.5 for a half unit. I make the total here 163.5. This should be one of the more entertaining games in Round 2. Both teams rank Top 25 in tempo, have athletic big men, and shooters all over the court. It feels like a 90-78 kind of game. I gave out two totals this season. They won by 28 and 20 points. This is my last one but if it wins easy again, I would like to be called "Tommy Totals" for the rest of the year.
I like Cal Baptist but they drew a tough matchup with Kansas. Baptist is a good defensive team, although they can struggle to score. I was hoping they would draw an opponent that gives up a lot of easy baskets like Alabama. Instead, they drew Kansas, who is rated 10th in defensive efficiency on KenPom. Play the Jayhawks at -14.5 or less.
I'll lay the 9.5 with St. John's here. I thought the Missouri Valley was down this season and Northern Iowa still finished tied for sixth with an 11-9 record. The Panthers two best wins are over Illinois State and UC Irvine. They don't have one victory over a team ranked in the KenPom Top 100. I'll make this simple: I don't know how Northern Iowa scores in this game. They are one of the worst teams in the country at offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line. The Panthers will need to make shots consistently from the perimeter to stay in the game and I don't see it happening. I like the Red Storm to win by double digits.
Alabama has played 32 games this season. They allowed opponents to score at least 74 points 27 times. There are a few reasons to think Hofstra will be the 28th. The Pride are an excellent offensive rebounding team. Defensive rebounding is an area where Alabama really struggles, so the Pride should get second chance opportunities. Hofstra was also the top three-point shooting team in the CAA. The Tide give up a lot of open looks from the perimeter, so this plays into the underdog's hands. Put it all together and I think win or lose, the Pride gets to 74 points on Friday.
Please make sure to subscribe to the CBB channel in our SL Discord. It's free and I gave Gonzaga -18.5 and Houston -19.5 as soon as the lines were released. Houston moved too much now but you can still get the Bulldogs at -18.5 on FD. Kennesaw is a team I bet to win C-USA and they finished seventh. Then the Owls went on a run in the conference tournament to get into the field. I like to fade these teams in Round 1. They also play at the 19th fastest pace and that's a bad omen when facing a Gonzaga squad that excels running up and down the court. Too much size and athleticism for Gonzaga. I think they roll. Bet up to 19.5.
This line moved to 1.5 at a couple of books, so now I have to bet it. I'll be honest, I won't be shocked if VCU wins the game, but I make North Carolina -4.5. Think about it this way. Less than a month ago, VCU was +7.5 at St. Louis. Now they are almost pick vs. UNC on a neutral court? That's too much of an overreaction to the Caleb Wilson injury. I don't love this UNC team but I'm a stickler about betting numbers in the NCAA Tournament. I have to bet the Tar Heels at -1.5 (BetMGM).
I love this spot for Florida now having a game under its belt in the SEC Tournament. This should be a fast paced game and the Gators excel in these matchups. The other issue Vanderbilt has here is its a poor rebounding team. Florida kills teams they can dominate on the boards. I expect the Gators to pull away and win by double digits. I took -6.5 at BetMGM. Play up to -8.5.
I have only given out one total this season. It was Florida-Arkansas when I thought the opening line was off by 5-6 points. We have another example here. Wisconsin-Illinois opened 154.5 at DK and BetMGM. I think it closes around 159. The last 5 meetings have finished with totals of 182, 169, 166, 180 and 174 points. Wisconsin already played in this gym and scored 85. Illinois should get whatever it wants near the rim. They shot 63% in the first meeting. These are also the two best free throw shooting teams in the Big 10. Play up to 157.5
UC Davis is likely without one of its best players tonight in Nils Cooper, although you have a better chance of robbing a bank than finding out injury info on Nils Cooper. He's missed the last four games and while UC Davis beat UC Santa Barbara without him, they face a tougher test tonight. Cal State Fullerton plays at the seventh fastest pace in CBB and I think that will be an issue in the second half against a short-handed UC Davis squad that isn't very deep and playing on back-to-back nights. Fullerton beat UC Davis 93-92 on Feb. 19 when Cooper scored 26 points. I think his absence is the difference as Fullerton pulls out the win.
UConn has been stewing for five days since losing its regular season finale to Marquette. Now they get a team they match up with as well as any in the Big East. The Huskies rolled Xavier twice this season 92-60 and 90-67. I expect more of the same on Thursday. I'm not going to overthink the Big East Tournament. There are two teams then everyone else. I think UConn wins big.