These are the two best teams remaining in the tournament, and the winner of this game will likely claim the National Championship. Both teams match up well, but I believe the Wildcats have more depth, especially after Michigan lost L.J. Cason to an ACL injury just before the postseason. While Michigan hasn’t needed him so far, his 40% three-point shooting could be missed in this matchup. Arizona doesn’t attempt many threes, but they are capable shooters and may take more shots from beyond the arc in this game. After analyzing both teams throughout the season, my betting model favors Arizona by 2.5 points—a prediction I strongly endorse. Arizona’s decisive edge on the boards was the pivotal factor that convinced me to side with them.

Joshua Jefferson is highly questionable to play. Iowa State's head athletic trainer confirmed that Jefferson "rolled it pretty good" and noted that the ankle is still in the "acute stage" of recovery. The Cyclones don’t have much depth inside, so losing him hurts even more. And now, they have to face Tennessee, which is just about the worst matchup for a team missing its best big man, who ranks second in POY rankings. If Jefferson does play, he won’t be 100%. The Volunteers crash the offensive glass (44.8% rate, best in the country), which means they get tons of second-chance points and extra shots. Additionally, Tennessee is outstanding at defending the three-point line, an area where Iowa State has consistently struggled against strong perimeter defenses.

Arizona dominates inside the arc and should have an advantage on the boards; notably, the Wildcats don’t rely on three-pointers. Arkansas provides a tactical blueprint to exploit Arizona’s low-volume threes, as the Razorbacks are eighth nationally in three-point shooting (38.9%) and rank first in Turnover Percentage. I have always liked underdogs with that combo in Sweet 16 matchups. Additionally, Darius Acuff Jr. is playing at an elite level and appears set to continue his hot streak. Meanwhile, Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd has consistently struggled to push his teams beyond the Sweet 16, often falling to squads with superior guard play. As a result, grabbing over three possessions' worth of points with an elite shooting team in a high-tempo game is a mathematically pristine position.

Since losing JT Toppin, the Red Raiders have posted a 4–3 record, suggesting they are vulnerable against teams with elite interior presence or high-volume transition attacks. Texas Tech is due for regression coming off a 55% 3-point performance over Akron, while Alabama shot just 33% from downtown in their win over Hofstra. Alabama’s Aiden Sherrell and Amari Allen are ready to dominate the glass and provide additional scoring chances that will exhaust the Red Raiders’ thin frontcourt rotation. Alabama holds a 7–1 all-time series lead against Texas Tech, including a perfect 2–0 record on neutral floors.

With fewer than 62 possessions projected, points will be scarce and margins tight. A 10.5-point spread in a slow game is like 14 in a fast-paced one. Northern Iowa is the nation’s best at defending the perimeter, allowing just 6.3 opponent three-pointers per game. St. John’s depends on offensive rhythm and spacing, but UNI’s defense and tempo will force a half-court battle. While UNI’s overall offense ranks just 153rd in AdjO, the numbers are skewed by their slow pace. In the half-court, UNI is highly efficient—consistently generating high-quality shots and maintaining a strong points-per-possession rate. The Red Storm struggles to shoot the basketball at a high level and must travel cross-country after an exhausting Big East Title run. My model made the favorite -8.6 points.

Saint Mary’s is the more talented team and deserves to be a larger favorite. Their strong defense and elite rebounding give them one of the nation’s best Defensive Rebounding Percentages, limiting opponents’ second-chance points. Texas A&M relies on offensive rebounds, but that edge will likely disappear. They also foul often, benefiting Saint Mary’s, the nation’s top free-throw shooting team (81.1%). The Gaels played a much tougher non-conference schedule. Saint Mary’s went 2-1 against top-12 opponents, while Texas A&M went 0-2. Notably, Texas A&M struggled against taller teams, going just 1-5 versus opponents averaging 6’7” or taller, whereas Saint Mary’s excelled against shorter teams, posting a 22-1 record against squads with an average height of 6’5” or less. This matchup plays directly into Saint Mary’s strengths.

Cornell scores quickly but lacks defense, ranking last in the Ivy League for points allowed (83.2) and near the bottom nationally in Defensive eFG% (55.6%). Yale is built to exploit this, with a strong Offensive eFG% (56.1%, 25th nationally), low turnover rate (14.2%), and dominance on the offensive glass (32.8% ORB%). Cornell’s inability to end defensive possessions (29.9% allowed) further tilts the matchup toward Yale, whose roster averages two inches taller than Cornell. The teams split their season series, each winning at home: Yale dominated the first matchup 102-68, while Cornell narrowly won the rematch 72-69 by hitting 14 threes. Yale gets revenge at Newman Arena. Lay the favorite.

USC’s primary vulnerability is turnovers, but Washington’s passive defense ranks just 326th nationally in forced turnover percentage. The Trojans have proven resilient in tight games, posting a 9-4 record in contests decided by six points or fewer, while Washington is just 1-6. Neither team excels from three-point range, but USC’s perimeter defense is among the nation’s best. Washington has beaten USC twice this season, including a commanding 91-72 victory on March 4, when the Huskies shot 48% compared to USC’s 38%. The Trojans have dropped seven straight games and are 0-6 against the spread in their last six outings. Despite enduring injuries all season, this could be an ideal scenario for USC to finally cover. They will be extremely motivated in this spot.

Big time strength vs. weakness matchup. Penn State’s interior defense is fundamentally flawed. The Nittany Lions are among the nation’s worst in two-point percentage defense, giving up a staggering 58.6% shooting inside the arc. This bodes well for the Buckeyes, who convert 57.8% of their two-point attempts. Penn State’s inability to defend inside almost guarantees a highly efficient offensive night for Ohio State. With the Buckeyes motivated to bolster their NCAA tournament resume, my model projects them to score at will in the paint and build a lead that should easily surpass the spread. Penn State, with little left to play for, is simply finishing out the season.

Alabama finds easy looks at the rim and beyond the arc, hitting 77% from the free-throw line and 36% from three. Georgia, on the other hand, struggles to shoot from deep (ranked 215th) and rarely cleans up the boards (347th). They give up too many open threes, and Alabama’s smart offense knows just how to take advantage. The market overvalues Georgia’s home-court edge and overlooks its weaknesses in 3-point shooting and rebounding. While Georgia shot 40% from three-point land in defeating South Carolina on Saturday, they rarely string back-to-back efficient shooting games in a row. Alabama is 2nd in overall strength of schedule (9th non-conference); Georgia ranks 59th and 326th, respectively. I like the road dog in this spot.

Duke enters the contest as one of the most mathematically dominant teams in the nation, ranking 9th overall in Offensive Efficiency and 4th in Defensive Efficiency. The Fighting Irish counter with a pedestrian OE of 114.9 (ranked 88th nationally) and a highly vulnerable Defensive Efficiency of 106.0 (ranked 109th). The Blue Devils have a magnificent 57.5% Effective Field Goal Percentage on the offensive end, a metric largely driven by a physically dominant interior presence that secures a massive 36.9% Offensive Rebounding Rate. Notre Dame will be forced to compete without freshman guard Jalen Haralson, their leading scorer and primary offensive initiator, who has been ruled out of this contest with an unspecified injury. My model has this all the way up to -19.5 for Duke.

Iowa’s defense thrives on forcing turnovers, ranking 14th nationally. But Wisconsin counters with elite ball security, ranking 9th in offensive turnover percentage. When forced into half-court defense, Iowa struggles—ranking 16th of 18 Big Ten teams in 2-point defense. The Hawkeyes’ defensive numbers also plummet on the road, where they’ve allowed 74 or more points in five of seven Big Ten away games. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s efficiency improves at the Kohl Center in all metrics, notably with free-throw shooting rising to 79.1%. Head coach Greg Gard confirmed on Saturday that Austin Rapp is expected to return for this game. My model makes the Badgers 4.5-point favorites.

St. John’s holds several key advantages, including experience, but rebounding is the true difference-maker. Rick Pitino’s squad ranks among the nation’s elite in offensive rebounding, recovering over 37% of their missed shots. Marquette sits near the bottom of the Big East in defensive rebounding—a recurring weakness. In their last matchup just a month ago, St. John’s dominated the glass and turned that hustle into a commanding 92–68 victory, fueled by a huge advantage in second-chance points. On average, St. John’s is statistically more likely to recover its own misses than Marquette is to secure the rebound. This edge can generate 12–15 additional scoring chances per game, equating to 14–18 points—enough to swing the outcome and cover this spread again. My model has Johnny -12.5 points.

Michigan enters as a powerhouse, leading the nation in Offensive Efficiency and ranking fourth in Defensive Efficiency. Purdue has the country’s second-best offense, but its defense lags at 19th, and its 2-point defense (183rd nationally) is particularly vulnerable against Michigan’s elite 2-point attack (second nationally). Mackey Arena offers a notable home-court advantage, but Michigan’s impressive 59% Effective Field Goal Percentage tends to travel well, and the Wolverines' interior defense is specifically designed to neutralize post-heavy teams like Purdue, which relies on 2-pointers for 51% of its offense. Purdue also has a looming revenge game against Indiana after losing to them last month. While Michigan plays Duke on Saturday, they have maintained focus all season, as seen in its performance (beating Nebraska) before playing Michigan State.

Florida ranks 13th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) and 6th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD), making them a championship contender. They score 124.2 points per 100 possessions and play elite defense, allowing them to control games. Georgia, meanwhile, is 34th in AdjO but just 62nd in AdjD, making their defense a weakness. Florida’s diverse offense, with Rueben Chinyelu inside and Thomas Haugh outside, should overwhelm Georgia’s limited defensive personnel. The absence of Georgia guard Jeremiah Wilkinson (Illness)—their leader at 17.1 PPG and 1.8 SPG—magnifies this edge. With Wilkinson out, Georgia’s offense drops by about 8.4 points per 100 possessions. Florida’s non-conference schedule ranks 35th in difficulty, while Georgia’s is way down at 335. I think Florida gets the season sweep and covers this number.