Duke enters the contest as one of the most mathematically dominant teams in the nation, ranking 9th overall in Offensive Efficiency and 4th in Defensive Efficiency. The Fighting Irish counter with a pedestrian OE of 114.9 (ranked 88th nationally) and a highly vulnerable Defensive Efficiency of 106.0 (ranked 109th). The Blue Devils have a magnificent 57.5% Effective Field Goal Percentage on the offensive end, a metric largely driven by a physically dominant interior presence that secures a massive 36.9% Offensive Rebounding Rate. Notre Dame will be forced to compete without freshman guard Jalen Haralson, their leading scorer and primary offensive initiator, who has been ruled out of this contest with an unspecified injury. My model has this all the way up to -19.5 for Duke.
Iowa’s defense thrives on forcing turnovers, ranking 14th nationally. But Wisconsin counters with elite ball security, ranking 9th in offensive turnover percentage. When forced into half-court defense, Iowa struggles—ranking 16th of 18 Big Ten teams in 2-point defense. The Hawkeyes’ defensive numbers also plummet on the road, where they’ve allowed 74 or more points in five of seven Big Ten away games. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s efficiency improves at the Kohl Center in all metrics, notably with free-throw shooting rising to 79.1%. Head coach Greg Gard confirmed on Saturday that Austin Rapp is expected to return for this game. My model makes the Badgers 4.5-point favorites.
St. John’s holds several key advantages, including experience, but rebounding is the true difference-maker. Rick Pitino’s squad ranks among the nation’s elite in offensive rebounding, recovering over 37% of their missed shots. Marquette sits near the bottom of the Big East in defensive rebounding—a recurring weakness. In their last matchup just a month ago, St. John’s dominated the glass and turned that hustle into a commanding 92–68 victory, fueled by a huge advantage in second-chance points. On average, St. John’s is statistically more likely to recover its own misses than Marquette is to secure the rebound. This edge can generate 12–15 additional scoring chances per game, equating to 14–18 points—enough to swing the outcome and cover this spread again. My model has Johnny -12.5 points.
Michigan enters as a powerhouse, leading the nation in Offensive Efficiency and ranking fourth in Defensive Efficiency. Purdue has the country’s second-best offense, but its defense lags at 19th, and its 2-point defense (183rd nationally) is particularly vulnerable against Michigan’s elite 2-point attack (second nationally). Mackey Arena offers a notable home-court advantage, but Michigan’s impressive 59% Effective Field Goal Percentage tends to travel well, and the Wolverines' interior defense is specifically designed to neutralize post-heavy teams like Purdue, which relies on 2-pointers for 51% of its offense. Purdue also has a looming revenge game against Indiana after losing to them last month. While Michigan plays Duke on Saturday, they have maintained focus all season, as seen in its performance (beating Nebraska) before playing Michigan State.
Florida ranks 13th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) and 6th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD), making them a championship contender. They score 124.2 points per 100 possessions and play elite defense, allowing them to control games. Georgia, meanwhile, is 34th in AdjO but just 62nd in AdjD, making their defense a weakness. Florida’s diverse offense, with Rueben Chinyelu inside and Thomas Haugh outside, should overwhelm Georgia’s limited defensive personnel. The absence of Georgia guard Jeremiah Wilkinson (Illness)—their leader at 17.1 PPG and 1.8 SPG—magnifies this edge. With Wilkinson out, Georgia’s offense drops by about 8.4 points per 100 possessions. Florida’s non-conference schedule ranks 35th in difficulty, while Georgia’s is way down at 335. I think Florida gets the season sweep and covers this number.
BYU's offensive identity is built on high-volume three-point shooting; they rank in the top 5 nationally in 3-Point Attempt Rate. Baylor's defense ranks 113th in eFG% defense and struggles specifically defending the 3-point arch (ranked 222nd). For a team like BYU, which thrives on spacing and ball movement, Baylor's defensive scheme is a matchup nightmare. Baylor ranks 44th overall in KenPom, driven largely by a defense that has fallen off a cliff. This creates a massive opportunity for BYU, which ranks 22nd overall with the 10th-best offense in the country. The Cougars are coming off a loss to Houston, where they shot just 41% from the field. I'm looking to buy low after their 0-8 ATS slump and four consecutive straight-up losses.
Michigan State has lost its only two conference games against ranked opponents (Michigan and Nebraska). They have feasted on the bottom of the Big Ten, inflating their defensive stats. When faced with a Tier-1 offense (like Michigan’s), their defense cracked. Illinois presents an even more potent offensive challenge than Michigan. Close Game Separation Metrics heavily favor Illinois. In tight games, Illinois has consistently executed in the half-court, whereas Michigan State has suffered from subpar backcourt play from everyone not named Jeremy Fears Jr. Illinois has validated these numbers away from home. Their Strength of Schedule adjusted performance includes road wins at Purdue and Nebraska—two of the toughest environments in the Big Ten. I like the road team in this spot.
Nebraska’s non-conference SOS ranks #299, showing their strong record is built on weak opponents. They’re unbeaten in Big Ten play but benefited from close wins and a high “Luck” rating (#33 KenPom). Michigan, with a non-conference SOS of 14th, is No. 2 in KenPom and boasts an Adjusted Efficiency Margin (+35.87) nearly 8 points higher than Nebraska. Such a gap signals a major mismatch. It’s the equivalent of a Final 4 team against a Sweet 16 squad. Michigan’s top-ranked 2-point offense and defense, while playing the seventh hardest schedule, make them a powerhouse. Nebraska is a poor offensive rebounding team (17th Big Ten, 304th nationally), limiting second-chance points. On the road against Michigan’s physicality and the Crisler Center crowd, Nebraska faces a “market correction” blowout.
The Badgers rank 12th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (122.9), while Penn State’s defense has plummeted to 107.7 AdjD, ranking dead last in the Big Ten in field goal percentage allowed (48.3%). The deciding factor is the interior. Penn State surrenders a staggering 57% shooting on two-point attempts. Furthermore, with leading scorer Freddie Dilione limited by an ankle injury, Penn State lacks the firepower to trade baskets in a high-efficiency game. This is a revenge spot for Wisconsin, who were upset as 11-point home favorites by the Nittany Lions last March. Expect Wisconsin to dominate the paint and cover comfortably.
Louisville is coming off a 40-point dismantling of Montana. This will be their longest road trip of the season, traveling three time zones. Louisville is the more talented team and has played a tougher schedule. Expecting Louisville to cover an 8.5-point spread at Haas Pavilion—a venue known for its intimate layout—adds a meaningful structural disadvantage for the visitors. The metrics suggest that California's defense is competent enough to prevent a blowout. The Golden Bears' ability to hit free throws (78.5%) will be crucial in the final minutes to keep the backdoor open. Veteran starting lineup with 3 seniors, 1 junior, and Justin Pippen, a sophomore (14.6 ppg). My model has Louisville at -6.1. I like the home team in this spot.
This matchup will be the Volunteers' sixth game in 14 days, while Kentucky has played two fewer games during the same period. The Wildcats have already defeated the Volunteers twice this season. They excelled in their shooting, primarily because Kentucky can shoot effectively over Tennessee with longer bodies. The Volunteers are at a disadvantage in size, ranking 189th in average height compared to Kentucky's 22nd ranking. Expect a close, high-scoring game, with Kentucky's experience in tight situations giving them a slight edge to win or at least cover the spread. The Wildcats have played the tougher non-con (No. 79 vs. 204) and overall schedules (No. 3 vs. No. 12). Kentucky is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that allow <67 points. Super strong systems on the underdog.
Richard Pitino is 87-48 with New Mexico. They got crushed in the first round against Clemson last season. This team is much better, with an average height ranked 25th compared to 193rd last season. New Mexico boasts a potent offense, averaging 81.2 points per game (26th in the nation) compared to Marquette's 76.9 points. The Golden Eagles have lost three of their last four games and are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five contests. The Mountain West has a net rating of sixth, while the Big East is ranked fourth at Kenpom. New Mexico has the better defense, and the strength of schedule difference is not as significant as you might think. Marquette is 5-11 ATS vs. teams that win >65%.
The Aggies are making their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and won't be overwhelmed by the big stage. Utah State has won 15 of its last 20 games. The Aggies have a top-20 offense, ranking highly in 2-point shooting (12th at KenPom), three-point percentage (69th), and overall offensive efficiency (17th). UCLA is ranked 193rd in 2-point defense and 130th in 3-point defense. The Aggies play at a faster tempo, which could disrupt UCLA's rhythm, with an 88% Rim and 3 Rate compared to UCLA's 65.3%. UCLA experienced a mid-season slump and was eliminated early in the Big Ten tournament. Utah State played a much tougher Non-conference schedule (No. 139 vs. No. 312). I like the points, and an outright upset would not shock me.
Creighton has already proven they can compete with St. John's, defeating them earlier this season. While St. John's boasts the nation's top defense (KenPom), Creighton's offensive efficiency (ranked 35th nationally) and elite inside scoring (over 60% on two-point attempts, the best in Division I) make them a tough matchup. In their last meeting at Madison Square Garden, St. John's defeated Creighton 79-73 in a tightly contested game. Creighton even held a five-point lead during the second half. The Blue Jays played a much tougher non-conference schedule (No. 46 vs. No. 174) this season. Grab the points.
Texas is currently led by freshman guard Tre Johnson, who ranks 15th nationally with an average of 20.2 points per game. He has scored at least 23 points in five of his last seven games. The Longhorns have made four straight NCAA Tournament appearances and must stack up some wins. Texas has a significant height advantage (No. 64 vs. No. 300) and will seek revenge for an earlier loss. Grab the points.