The Boilermakers' weekend romp at Iowa City might have been their best effort of the season, though the Wolverines are a greater challenge. Michigan has a rim protector deluxe in 7-3 UCLA transfer Aday Mara, who recently sent back six Penn State shots and ranks third nationally in blocks. Mara can concentrate on those specific duties because Dusty May has a couple of bangers in 6-9 ex-UAB Yaxel Lendeborg (14.4 ppg) and 6-9 ex-Illinois PF Morez Johnson Jr (13.6 ppg) to take care of the dirty business in the paint. Purdue has to hit on all cylinders, and Matt Painter needs more from 6-11 South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff, held to single digits in six of the last seven games. Play Michigan.
I think it's fairly safe to say that Purdue cannot make this game a track meet and beat Michigan. The Boilermakers need to ugly it up and hold Michigan well below 80 to have a big chance. Both teams are giving up less than 69 points per game so don't obviously assume a high-scoring game. Michigan has given up 72 or less points in 20 of last 23 games, while Purdue has given up 73 or less points in 18 of last 21 games. Low-scoring and down-to-the-wire. Wolverines 73, Boilermakers 71.
Michigan has scored more than 80 points in 11 of 14 games against Big Ten opponents, and with the state of Purdue's defense (solid, but not elite) I think we can assume the Wolverines will do so again. The key to the over will be Braden Smith's playmaking in a huge game on a Tuesday night in Mackey Arena. The bet here is that four-year starter has a big night and Purdue is ready to run it up into the 80s as well.
Michigan enters as a powerhouse, leading the nation in Offensive Efficiency and ranking fourth in Defensive Efficiency. Purdue has the country’s second-best offense, but its defense lags at 19th, and its 2-point defense (183rd nationally) is particularly vulnerable against Michigan’s elite 2-point attack (second nationally). Mackey Arena offers a notable home-court advantage, but Michigan’s impressive 59% Effective Field Goal Percentage tends to travel well, and the Wolverines' interior defense is specifically designed to neutralize post-heavy teams like Purdue, which relies on 2-pointers for 51% of its offense. Purdue also has a looming revenge game against Indiana after losing to them last month. While Michigan plays Duke on Saturday, they have maintained focus all season, as seen in its performance (beating Nebraska) before playing Michigan State.
