Alabama has won eight straight games overall, and has won seven of the past eight meetings with Georgia. While the Bulldogs have gotten healthy and regained their footing, this is a difficult matchup for them. Look for the Tide's highly efficient offense (No. 3 in KenPom) to lift Alabama to a high-scoring win.
I think Alabama might be a bad matchup for Georgia, especially if this is a track meet. The Bulldogs’ blistering tempo has cooled off in SEC play, but it’s still a group that’s getting a good portion of production from transition buckets and playing a defensive style that will give them up as well. Alabama ties its shoes and puts up 90 in these kind of back-and-forth showdowns, even as it falls in a tricky schedule spot between stealing the win at Tennessee and wrapping the regular season against Auburn. If the game plays out as the spread suggests and it's a coin-flip contest late, then I think Alabama has an edge with more high-end playmakers to deliver in clutch situations.
Alabama finds easy looks at the rim and beyond the arc, hitting 77% from the free-throw line and 36% from three. Georgia, on the other hand, struggles to shoot from deep (ranked 215th) and rarely cleans up the boards (347th). They give up too many open threes, and Alabama’s smart offense knows just how to take advantage. The market overvalues Georgia’s home-court edge and overlooks its weaknesses in 3-point shooting and rebounding. While Georgia shot 40% from three-point land in defeating South Carolina on Saturday, they rarely string back-to-back efficient shooting games in a row. Alabama is 2nd in overall strength of schedule (9th non-conference); Georgia ranks 59th and 326th, respectively. I like the road dog in this spot.
