Feels like the proud and not-bad Suns will show up for one game, anyways, and cover a big number at home -- no Jalen Williams again for OKC helps a little in theory. Total human nature for the Thunder guys to somewhat go half-motion tonight knowing at worst they finish the series back in Game 5 at home. Although I certainly don't expect a Phoenix upset here. Our model has OKC by nine. It's the last +11.5 on our board and I probably wouldn't go lower, though. I'll spin my Manchester United half-unit cash from this afternoon into this one.

Caesar’s. With the Thunder defensive gameplan continuing to be to get the ball out of Devin Booker’s hands, Dillon Brooks has benefited as the Suns leading scorer in the series. Brooks has 9+ threes in each game (29 total), with all but one registering as an open look (and 17 as wide open). The Thunder are guarding Brooks with Chet Holmgren, who is more interested in protecting the paint. I don’t think the Thunder mind if Brooks continues to shoot threes, and Brooks will most definitely continue to shoot from long range when open. A 38% shooter from deep at home, in a desparation spot - I have Brooks getting off another 9-10 attempts tonight.

With the Thunder up 3 games to 0, don’t be surprised if Coach Daigneault uses tonight as an opportunity to adjust his rotations for the next round. This is just the second playoff game without Jalen Williams, and this was a big practice of his last year as he tweaked the playoff rotations constantly. That can lead to surges for the Suns as the Thunder use more personnel off the bench. Phoenix may get swept but play competitive enough to cover as double digit home underdogs. Grab the points with the Suns.

The Thunder seem content to allow Dillon Brooks to shoot all night as long as Devin Booker and Jalen Green aren't beating them. In the three games of the series so far, Brooks has 66 shots, shooting 22, 23, and 21 times, and scoring 18, 30, and 33 points. His 22 shots per game are 5th among all players this postseason. He's attempting 9.3 shots from beyond the arc, most in the NBA postseason. During the regular season vs. the Thunder, Brooks hit this prop in three of four games, averaging 20 per game. It's win or season over in Phoenix tonight. A game they have to have that the champs do not. I expect Brooks to continue shooting and hit his over 18.5.

I'll be in attendance for the inevitable Oklahoma City sweep, so might as well have some action on the game. I do think Phoenix will go all out tonight, which means Jalen Green should once again carry a heavy scoring load. He is averaging more than 19 shots per game in this series and his points have increased from 17 to 21 to 26 in the three games thus far. I may even attempt to ladder this play up to 30 points assuming that the Suns keep things competitive throughout.

The Suns are down 3-0 to the Thunder, but Dillon Brooks is having a productive series. He scored 33 points in Game 3, marking his second game with at least 30 points. While he had just 18 points in Game 1, he shot 6-for-22 from the field. His usage rate has been high with him attempting at least 21 shots in all three games. The Thunder are a great defensive team, but Brooks also scored at least 19 points in three of four regular season matchups with them. Combine that with him averaging 23.7 points per game at home and I like this over.

Embarrassment is a strong motivator. In all likelihood the Suns are getting swept, but this is too many points to give a proud team playing at home. Grayson Allen should be better in his second game back from a strained hamstring, providing Phoenix a much-needed weapon. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as superb as he is, is not likely to be as efficient as he was in his Game 3 masterpiece.