DraftKings. At these odds, this is worth a bet. Evan Mobley has 9 assists this series, and 4+ in 5/6 games against the Pistons this season. In the four games with Donovan Mitchell, he’s cleared this line, while averaging 7.5 potential assists and 50 passes per game, both modest increases from his regular averages. Schematically, it makes sense - the Pistons typically defend Mobley with Jalen Duren or Isaiah Stewart, leaving the paint vulnerable when he catches the ball at the high post. Rather than attacking against solid defenders, Mobley acts as a connector to cutters or spot up shooters.

Tobias Harris has provided the Pistons with a reliable secondary scoring option, however I think he’s a significant regression candidate. With the Cavs down 0-2 and the series heading back to Cleveland, I expect a more inspired effort from the Cavs and I don’t think Harris can sustain his current level of output.

Right now in the Eastern Conference we have two lopsided series. The New York Knicks are up 3 games to 0, and the Pistons 2 games to 0 on the Cavaliers. Cleveland, has dug themselves a hole in both games one and two but came back in both to make a game of it in the fourth quarters. The efficiency in the half court can be better, and don’t be surprised if Jaylon Tyson and Dennis Shroder’s roles grow with Harden struggling. Cavs end the Pistons five game playoff winning streak, and cover the number.

The Cavaliers are one of the few teams to control Cade Cunningham this season. It's never easy fading the Pistons' star, who leads all NBA players this postseason at 30.6 PPG. But seven of those nine games were vs. Orlando. In games vs. Cleveland this season, including Games 1 and 2, Cunningham has yet to go over 27.5, averaging "only" 20.3 PPG. The Cavs have held him to 35.8% shooting and 27.6% from beyond the arc. He had 25 points in Game 2, with 20 coming after half.

Not been my NBA season, too many big favorites and that's not my cup of tea. Probably least I have ever bet the sport. But if I were writing the newsletter today? This is Leg 1 of a parlay. But I'm so fine with it solo that I'm going our max two units. I may do much more than that personally (realize just now what person I sound like on X and it turns my stomach). Will wait until closer to tip to decide because the NBA injury report may as well be toilet paper for how trustworthy it is these days. It's startling how different the Cavs have looked home and away in these playoffs. Hopefully they can flip the switch.

James Harden has not shot well in this series. He is a combined 9-for-28 from the field, including 1-for-11 from behind the arc. However, he still logged at least 35 minutes in both games. That helped him finish with eight and six rebounds. How now has five straight games with at least six rebounds. With plenty of minutes likely coming his way in Game 3, I’ll pay the juice and take this over.

Tobias Harris scored 20 and 21 points in the first two games in Detroit. That extended his streak to seven straight games with at least 20 points. In the playoffs, he is averaging 36 minutes and 16.8 shot attempts a night. He is the clear second-best scoring option on the Pistons, so expect him to continue to play a lot and have an elevated usage rate during Game 3.

Caesar’s. There’s a lot to be said around James Harden’s offensive performances in these playoffs, but one aspect that has held true of late is his rebounding. Harden now has at least six boards in each of his last five games, and has cleared this line now in 4/5 games against Detroit (including 3/3 as a Cavalier). The Cavs’ defensive objective is to keep him away from the primary action, which leaves him free to crash the boards.