The Cleveland Cavaliers are 5 and 0 in the playoffs at home, but have not won consecutive postseason games since game two against the Raptors. Each playoff game they seem to have that crucial down stretch, that allows the opponent to surge. Expect Detroit’s bench guards to perform better in game three when they went a combined 4 of 16. At the very least I expect the spread to finally be worthy for the underdog. Grab the points with Detroit.

Cleveland is 5-0 at home in the playoffs, but I like the Pistons to at least take this to the wire, if not pull the upset. Expect Ausar Thompson (29 minutes) and Paul Reed (10 minutes) to play a lot more in Game 4 than they did in Saturday's loss. Combined, they were plus-23 in the box score. And look for Cade Cunningham to do better than his 10-for-27, eight-turnover performance.

FanDuel. Donovan Mitchell has come alive these past two games, recording 37 and 45 points plus rebounds. After a pedestrian Raptors series, Spida seems to have kicked it into a higher gear against a Pistons defense he found success against in the regular season (36, 36 and 27 points plus rebounds). Historically a very strong playoff performer at home, and coming off two straight games with 24+ FGA, 8+ 3PA, 8+ FTA, 6+ rebounds, with 34%+ usage - I’m expecting another dominant performance from Mitchell tonight. Very playable at 31.5.

The Cavaliers are one of the few teams to control Cade Cunningham this season. It's never easy fading the Pistons' star, who leads all NBA players this postseason at 30.2 PPG. But seven of those 10 games were vs. Orlando. In 7 games vs. Cleveland this season, including the 3 games in this series, Cunningham has yet to go over 27.5, averaging "only" 20.9 PPG. The Cavs have held him to 36.1% shooting and 28.6% from beyond the arc. He’s averaging 25 PPG in the 3 games, but none have gone over 27.5.

Cavs PF Evan Mobley has had two solid games and one dud for the Cavs so far. He has yet to come close to scoring his 18.2 ppg season average, but he has grabbed 8-9 rebounds in two of the games and 4-5 assists in all three. In Games 1 and 3 he totaled 12 and 14 R/A and on the year is at 12.6. Ten rebounds is very doable, 3-4 assists is too.

Caesar’s. Another bet I’m going to repeat for Game 4 is Evan Mobley’s assists. He’s now reached the four-assist mark in each game this series, and in all five games against Detroit this season when playing alongside Donovan Mitchell. In this matchup, he’s seen his total passes and potential assists increase, as Detroit does a solid job at defending him one-one-one. Serving as a connector from the high post, Mobley has acted as a secondary distributor to the low block, or out to the wing for spot-up/baseline cut opportunities.

FanDuel. Duncan Robinson has recorded at least 21 combined points, rebounds plus assists over the three games this series. The more free-flowing nature of this matchup against the Cavs has suited the sharpshooter better than the defensive battle against the Magic. During the regular season and in the playoffs, the Cavs have allowed more catch and shoot opportunities in an effort to stop ball-handlers - something we’ve seen this series with Cade Cunningham. And I do see Robinson’s secondary stats lines being set too low - he’s a capable rebounder, and has shown this series he can distribute in the instances where Cleveland does close out on him behind the arc.

Tobias Harris has been the Pistons’ second-best player during their playoff run. Over their 10 games, he has averaged 21.3 points and 7.7 rebounds. That has included him recording at least 25 combined points and rebounds in each of the last nine games. The key is that he is averaging 36 minutes and 16.5 shot attempts in the playoffs, up from his season averages of 28 minutes and 10.5 shot attempts. In his current role, this over is appealing.

Donovan Mitchell was the star of Game 3 for the Cavaliers, scoring 35 points in their win. That was his second straight game with at least 31 points. In this series, he has averaged 22.3 shot attempts a game, 9.0 of which have come from behind the arc. During the regular season, he averaged 28.7 points per game and shot 49.3% from the field at home. In five home playoff games, he has scored at least 30 points three times. His usage rate should remain high in Game 4, leaving him in a favorable spot to hit this over.

Jarrett Allen's scoring went up post-James Harden trade. He averaged 17.8 points after the All-Star Break, compared to 14.6 before. Harden is a master at finding Allen after Allen screens for him and rolls. This series is a good matchup for Allen because Detroit's size (Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, Paul Reed) keeps Allen on the floor. He played 31 and 32 minutes the past two games, scoring 22 and 18 points. He shot 7 of 9 in each game. If Allen can stay out of early foul trouble, he should clear this prop total for the fifth time in the past six games.

Detroit made Game 3 in Cleveland much sweatier than I would have preferred, but the Cavs pulled it out. Unbeaten at home in these playoffs. James Harden especially looks like a different player on his home court than away. The Beard hit a couple of huge late shots in Saturday's victory. It would not surprise me at all if the home team won all seven in this series as happened in Round 1 between the Cavs and Raptors. Cleveland (obviously including playoffs) is an NBA-best 18-3 at home since Jan. 23 and has won nine straight at Rocket Mortgage Arena. Series is all but over if they drop this one.